Fractiz
Pattern Detail
NR7
How often the narrowest-range session in seven days resolves into a directional breakout the next day.
Move size vs normal
0.97×
About the same as a normal bar.
Occurrences
727
Compression sessions in the sample.
Break direction
67.3%
Broke out within a session, split 39.6% up / 27.6% down.
Summary
NR7 is a compression pattern: it signals a coiled range, not a direction. The move that follows is 0.97× a normal bar's range, about normal. The break splits roughly 39.6% up / 27.6% down. Trade the breakout, not a side.
Next-session outcome (direction is not predicted)
| Outcome | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Broke up | 288 | 39.6% |
| Broke down | 201 | 27.6% |
| Indecisive | 238 | 32.7% |
Avg excursion above the range 0.7% · below 0.9%. The breakout trade itself is a strategy, not the pattern.
Move size vs normal
0.97×
About the same as a normal bar.
Occurrences
731
Compression sessions in the sample.
Break direction
70.7%
Broke out within a session, split 40.5% up / 30.2% down.
Summary
NR7 is a compression pattern: it signals a coiled range, not a direction. The move that follows is 0.97× a normal bar's range, about normal. The break splits roughly 40.5% up / 30.2% down. Trade the breakout, not a side.
Next-session outcome (direction is not predicted)
| Outcome | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Broke up | 296 | 40.5% |
| Broke down | 221 | 30.2% |
| Indecisive | 214 | 29.3% |
Avg excursion above the range 0.6% · below 0.8%. The breakout trade itself is a strategy, not the pattern.
An NR7 is a session whose range, its high minus its low, is the narrowest of the last seven sessions including itself. It is an even tighter coil than an inside day, the quietest bar in a week. The idea comes from Toby Crabel: range contraction is supposed to precede range expansion. There is no built-in direction, so this page treats the coil itself as the signal and asks whether a bigger move tends to follow.
How to spot it
- Take the range, high minus low, of each of the last seven sessions including the current one.
- The current session has the smallest of those seven ranges.
- The match must be strict. If the current range ties with any of the prior six, it does not count, which keeps the signal honest when several sessions sit at similar ranges.
- Sessions are read off the regular trading hours, so this is a daily pattern.
Why it matters
The NR7 thesis is that volatility cycles between contraction and expansion, so a seven-day low in range should hand off to a wider move. It is a tighter coil than an inside day and the same logic applies: the contraction is supposed to tip off the release. There is no direction in it, the narrow bar does not lean up or down, so the only honest question is whether the next move runs bigger than a normal day. That is what the data below tests.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the question is not “did it win” but “how much room did the move offer.” Because an NR7 predicts no direction, we measure it both as a long and as a short and report both. The tabs below answer that on the index futures with a regular session (Nasdaq and S&P 500), on the daily chart.
For a coil, the room offered will look even on both sides, and that is exactly right. There is no directional edge here and the page does not pretend there is one. The number that matters is the expansion: how the move size after an NR7 compares with a normal day. On NQ that expansion comes out close to normal. The famous notion that contraction precedes a bigger move does not hold up strongly on this market, and the page reports it straight rather than dressing it up.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the NR7 day.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close to the day’s own range: its low for the long side, its high for the short side.
- The direction is not predicted, so we measure both sides. The signal is the expansion, the move size against a normal day, not which way price went.
- We follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in multiples of that risk before the stop was hit, on each side.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. This measures only the room the pattern tends to offer and whether the move runs bigger than usual.
What this page does not cover
- An inside NR7, a session that is both inside and the narrowest of seven, sometimes treated as a stronger coil.
- Multi-day windows beyond the next 20 bars.
- A profit target or position sizing. Where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
FAQ
What is an NR7 day?
An NR7 is a session whose range, high minus low, is the narrowest of the last seven sessions including itself. It is a compression signal popularized by Toby Crabel, built on the idea that range contraction precedes range expansion. This page requires a strictly smallest range, so a tie with any of the prior six does not count, which keeps the signal honest when sessions cluster at similar ranges.
Does NR7 predict a bigger move?
That is the famous claim, that a seven-day low in range hands off to expansion. It says nothing about direction, so this page measures the room offered on both the long and the short side, and the two come out even, as they should. The signal that matters is the expansion number, the move size after an NR7 against a normal day. On NQ that number lands close to normal, so the bigger move does not reliably arrive. Read the expansion figure on the page before assuming the coil pays off.