Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Opening Drive Failure
How often a strong move in the first 30 minutes of RTH gets fully unwound by the close.
Overall Failure Rate
22.9%
of 1,889 qualifying opening drives in NQ reversed by close
Drive Definition
30 min · ≥ 0.30%
Window after RTH open and minimum directional move
Sample Range
1m
2008-01-02 to 2026-02-24
Direction Breakdown
Up Drive
- Drives
- 980
- Failures
- 214
- Failure rate
- 21.8%
- Avg peak extension
- 1.0%
- Avg reversal
- 0.8%
Down Drive
- Drives
- 909
- Failures
- 219
- Failure rate
- 24.1%
- Avg peak extension
- 1.0%
- Avg reversal
- 0.8%
Recent Drives (20)
| Date | Direction | Drive Size | Failed | Close vs Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Up | +0.74% | No | +1.46% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Up | +0.53% | No | +0.60% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Down | -0.70% | Yes | +0.48% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Down | -0.54% | No | -2.30% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Down | -0.45% | No | -0.55% |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Up | +0.36% | No | +1.56% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Down | -0.75% | No | -1.54% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Down | -1.16% | No | -1.89% |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Up | +0.81% | No | +1.23% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Down | -1.03% | No | -0.54% |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Up | +0.34% | No | +0.37% |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Down | -0.59% | No | -0.26% |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Up | +0.51% | No | +1.09% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Up | +0.32% | Yes | -0.40% |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Down | -0.54% | No | -0.71% |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Down | -0.60% | No | -0.40% |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Up | +0.60% | No | +0.80% |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Down | -0.71% | No | -0.40% |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Up | +0.46% | No | +0.69% |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Up | +0.78% | No | +0.87% |
Detection scan: NQ 1m · 2008-01-02 to 2026-02-24 · generated Apr 26, 2026
What this pattern measures
An opening drive is a directional move in the first portion of regular trading hours that exceeds a small but real threshold. A failure is when, despite that early conviction, the session closes back through the RTH open in the opposite direction.
Definitions used on this page:
- RTH is 08:30 to 15:00 Central Time for CME equity index futures, matching the NYSE/Nasdaq cash session.
- A drive is recorded if, 30 minutes after the RTH open, price has moved at least 0.3% from the opening print.
- A drive is judged to have failed if the closing price of the RTH session is on the opposite side of the RTH open from the drive direction.
Why it matters
Opening drives are usually framed as “tells” for which way a session will trend. The follow-through assumption is strong enough that traders fade against an early drive only with a clear reason. Knowing how often that fade actually pays out, separated by direction and instrument, lets you tune position sizing on early conviction trades rather than relying on chart-pattern intuition.
How to read the numbers
- Failure rate is the share of qualifying drives that ended on the wrong side of the open.
- Avg peak extension is how far price ran past the drive direction after the 30-minute window before reversing. For failed drives this captures the worst-case open-trade exposure if you held through the run-up.
- Avg reversal is how far past the RTH open the session ultimately closed when the drive failed. The bigger this number, the more violent the unwind.
The recent occurrences table includes both successful drives and failed ones so you can see the day-to-day mix, not just the negative selection.
What’s not here
- Multi-bar drive shapes (the threshold is a snapshot at the 30-minute mark, not a path test).
- Volume confirmation. Volume-weighted drive definitions tend to filter out the cleanest failures.
- Cross-session conditioning, for example whether overnight gaps change the failure rate.