Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Opening Drive Failure
A strong directional move early in the session, traded as a continuation. How much room the drive tends to offer.
Overall Failure Rate
22.9%
-10.0 pts vs any early move
of 1,910 opening drives in NQ reversed by close, vs 32.9% for any early move that size or smaller. A negative edge means drives reverse LESS than usual, they tend to continue.
Drive Definition
30 min · ≥ 0.30%
Window after RTH open and minimum directional move
Sample Range
1m
2008-01-02 to 2026-04-30
Direction Breakdown
Up Drive
- Drives
- 992
- Failures
- 216
- Failure rate
- 21.8%
- Baseline (any early up)
- 29.6%
- Edge vs baseline
- -7.8 pts
- Avg peak extension
- 1.0%
- Avg reversal
- 0.8%
Down Drive
- Drives
- 918
- Failures
- 222
- Failure rate
- 24.2%
- Baseline (any early down)
- 36.6%
- Edge vs baseline
- -12.4 pts
- Avg peak extension
- 1.0%
- Avg reversal
- 0.8%
Recent Drives (20)
| Date | Direction | Drive Size | Failed | Close vs Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | Down | -0.89% | Yes | +0.32% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Down | -0.45% | Yes | +0.17% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Up | +0.37% | No | +1.28% |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Down | -0.47% | No | -0.48% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Down | -0.51% | Yes | +0.52% |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Up | +0.60% | No | +0.41% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Up | +0.57% | No | +1.92% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Up | +0.78% | No | +2.26% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Down | -0.88% | No | -1.59% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Down | -0.74% | No | -1.46% |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Up | +0.43% | Yes | -0.39% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Down | -0.82% | No | -1.53% |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Up | +0.30% | No | +0.60% |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Up | +0.37% | No | +0.04% |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Up | +0.32% | No | +0.06% |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Up | +0.33% | Yes | -0.99% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Down | -0.48% | No | -0.89% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Up | +0.79% | No | +0.24% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Up | +0.88% | No | +1.54% |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Down | -0.59% | No | -1.02% |
Detection scan: NQ 1m · 2008-01-02 to 2026-04-30 · generated Jun 14, 2026
Overall Failure Rate
26.3%
-8.8 pts vs any early move
of 1,176 opening drives in ES reversed by close, vs 35.1% for any early move that size or smaller. A negative edge means drives reverse LESS than usual, they tend to continue.
Drive Definition
30 min · ≥ 0.30%
Window after RTH open and minimum directional move
Sample Range
1m
2008-01-02 to 2026-04-30
Direction Breakdown
Up Drive
- Drives
- 582
- Failures
- 131
- Failure rate
- 22.5%
- Baseline (any early up)
- 31.0%
- Edge vs baseline
- -8.5 pts
- Avg peak extension
- 0.9%
- Avg reversal
- 0.9%
Down Drive
- Drives
- 594
- Failures
- 178
- Failure rate
- 30.0%
- Baseline (any early down)
- 39.1%
- Edge vs baseline
- -9.1 pts
- Avg peak extension
- 1.0%
- Avg reversal
- 0.9%
Recent Drives (20)
| Date | Direction | Drive Size | Failed | Close vs Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | Down | -0.48% | Yes | +0.53% |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Up | +0.31% | No | +0.57% |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Up | +0.35% | No | +1.27% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Down | -0.40% | Yes | +0.39% |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Up | +0.41% | No | +0.47% |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Up | +0.50% | No | +1.46% |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Up | +0.57% | No | +1.73% |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Down | -0.78% | No | -1.24% |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Down | -0.56% | No | -1.35% |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Up | +0.38% | Yes | -1.06% |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Down | -0.33% | No | -0.30% |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Up | +0.33% | Yes | -0.40% |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Down | -0.53% | No | -1.20% |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Up | +0.37% | No | +0.10% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | Down | -0.34% | No | -0.75% |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Down | -0.35% | Yes | +1.80% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Down | -0.37% | No | -0.14% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Up | +0.45% | Yes | -0.11% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Down | -0.39% | Yes | +0.79% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Up | +0.62% | No | +1.12% |
Detection scan: ES 1m · 2008-01-02 to 2026-04-30 · generated Jun 14, 2026
An opening drive is a strong directional move in the first part of the session after the open. The familiar framing asks how often the drive fails. The honest question is the reverse: does the drive continue, and how much room does following it offer. This page reads the drive as a continuation, an up drive is a long, a down drive is a short.
How to spot it
- Price makes a strong, one-directional push early in the regular session, away from the open.
- An up drive pushes above the open, a down drive pushes below it.
- The continuation trades with the drive: buy an up drive, sell a down drive.
- The drive is a once-per-session event read off the regular trading hours, so this is a daily pattern.
Why it matters
The “failure” name frames the drive as something waiting to reverse, and traders fade an early push only with a clear reason. That framing buries the more useful question. A drive is an early show of conviction, and what matters is whether that conviction carries through the rest of the session or fades. Asking how often it fails tells you nothing about how far it runs when it does carry. The data below measures the room the drive offers, so the numbers settle whether following it pays.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the question is not “did the drive hold” but “how much room did continuation offer before the read was proven wrong.” The stats below answer that on the index futures with a regular session (Nasdaq and S&P 500), on the daily chart.
For each drive we measure the room price offered in the drive direction, in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against a random entry on the same market. On NQ the drive tends to carry, and the continuation shows a real, reliable edge over a random entry. Rather than lean on that, the page lets the numbers speak.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the bar that ends the drive window.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close to that bar’s invalidation extreme: its low for an up drive (a long), its high for a down drive (a short). A move back through there says the read is wrong.
- We follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in the drive direction, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. This measures only the room the drive tends to offer.
What this page does not cover
- Conditioning on the strength or speed of the drive.
- Whether the drive came after an overnight gap or a flat open.
- A profit target or position sizing. Where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
FAQ
Does an opening drive carry through the session?
That is what the page measures. Rather than asking how often the drive fails, it reads the drive as a continuation and measures how far price tends to run in the drive direction, in units of its own risk, against a random entry. On NQ the drive shows a real, reliable edge, so following it has tended to offer genuine room rather than setting up a reversal.
Should I fade an opening drive or follow it?
This page measures the follow, not the fade. It treats an up drive as a long and a down drive as a short, and reports how much room that continuation offers compared with a random entry on the same market. On NQ those numbers favor following the drive, which is the opposite of what the “failure” framing implies.