Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Outside Day
How often the close direction of an engulfing session carries through to the next day.
Total Outside Days
501
Engulfing sessions in NQ over the sample period
Overall Continuation
48.7%
Next session closed in the same direction as the trigger close
Sample Range
1d
2008-01-02 to 2026-02-24
Direction Breakdown
Up Close
- Outside days
- 199
- Continued
- 111
- Continuation rate
- 55.8%
- Avg next move
- +0.07%
Down Close
- Outside days
- 302
- Continued
- 133
- Continuation rate
- 44.0%
- Avg next move
- -0.09%
Avg next move is signed in the trigger close direction. Positive = continuation tends to win on average; negative = reversion does.
Recent Outside Days (20)
| Date | Trigger Close | Continued | Next Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Up | No | -1.22% |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Up | Yes | +0.73% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Down | Yes | +2.04% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Down | Yes | +1.77% |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Up | No | -1.59% |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Down | No | -1.31% |
| Jan 2, 2026 | Down | No | -0.79% |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Down | No | -1.45% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Up | No | -0.33% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Down | No | -0.72% |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Down | No | -0.64% |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Down | No | -2.12% |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Down | No | -1.14% |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Up | Yes | +0.03% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Down | Yes | +2.03% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Down | No | -0.12% |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Up | Yes | +0.07% |
| Jul 7, 2025 | Down | No | -0.03% |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Down | No | -1.41% |
| Jun 10, 2025 | Up | No | -0.35% |
Detection scan: NQ 1d · 2008-01-02 to 2026-02-24 · generated Apr 26, 2026
What this pattern measures
An outside day is a session whose RTH high is above the prior session’s high AND whose RTH low is below the prior session’s low. The session swallows the previous range — a wide bar that took out both the prior high and low.
Definitions used on this page:
- Sessions are aggregated from RTH bars only (08:30 to 15:00 Central Time for CME equity index futures).
- An outside day is classified by its own close direction: up close if the session closed above its open, down close otherwise.
- Continuation = the next session’s close moved in the same direction as the trigger close (next close higher for up-close trigger, lower for down-close trigger).
Why it matters
Outside days are interpreted differently than inside days. Where inside days suggest pent-up energy that breaks one way or the other, outside days have already broken both ways within the trigger session. The interesting question is whether the close direction of that wide bar tells you anything about the following session — is the engulfing bar a trend bar or a temporary dislocation?
How to read the numbers
- Continuation rate is the share of outside days whose next session closed in the same direction as the trigger close.
- Avg next move is the average size of the next session’s close move from the trigger close, signed in the trigger close direction. Positive average means continuation tends to win on average; negative means reversion does.
A continuation rate near 50% with a small average move means the trigger close direction carries little information about the next session. A skew tells you whether traders should fade or trail.
What’s not here
- Multi-day continuation windows.
- Conditioning on the size of the engulfing bar.
- Whether the outside day occurred in a trend or chop regime.