Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Bearish Belt Hold
Single-candle bearish reversal after a rally: a candle that gaps up to open and then falls all the way through with no upper wick.
Shown only on the markets where this pattern occurs.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
41.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 37.3% for a random short entry (+4.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
2.20×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.14R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.97R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 41.7% of the time vs 37.3% for a random short entry. The 4.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±19.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 24 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 24 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 41.7% | 37.3% | +4.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 29.2% | 27.3% | +1.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 16.7% | 20.7% | -4.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 58.3% | 62.5% | -4.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2 |
24 occurrences · 1,650,882 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
60.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 36.4% for a random short entry (+23.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.60×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.34R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.96R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 36.4% for a random short entry. The 23.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 10 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 60.0% | 36.4% | +23.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 30.0% | 26.7% | +3.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 20.0% | 20.4% | -0.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.0% | 63.4% | -23.4 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2 |
10 occurrences · 350,470 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
46.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 36.0% for a random short entry (+10.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.76×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.25R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.96R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 46.7% of the time vs 36.0% for a random short entry. The 10.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±24.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 15 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 15 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 46.7% | 36.0% | +10.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 26.7% | 26.6% | +0.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 6.7% | 20.6% | -14.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 33.3% | 63.7% | -30.4 |
| Went sideways | 20.0% | 0.3% | +19.7 |
15 occurrences · 118,610 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
35.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 35.8% for a random short entry (-0.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.09×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.13R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.97R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 35.3% of the time vs 35.8% for a random short entry. The 0.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±22.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 17 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 17 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 35.3% | 35.8% | -0.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 17.6% | 26.8% | -9.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 5.9% | 21.2% | -15.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 52.9% | 64.0% | -11.1 |
| Went sideways | 11.8% | 0.2% | +11.6 |
17 occurrences · 59,546 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
43.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 35.7% for a random short entry (+7.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.02×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.35R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.97R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 43.5% of the time vs 35.7% for a random short entry. The 7.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±19.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 23 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 23 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 43.5% | 35.7% | +7.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 26.1% | 27.1% | -1.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 17.4% | 21.6% | -4.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 52.2% | 64.2% | -12.0 |
| Went sideways | 4.3% | 0.1% | +4.2 |
23 occurrences · 27,609 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
55.6%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 36.0% for a random short entry (+19.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.98×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.46R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.99R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 55.6% of the time vs 36.0% for a random short entry. The 19.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±22.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 18 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 18 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 55.6% | 36.0% | +19.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 44.4% | 29.7% | +14.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 33.3% | 24.7% | +8.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 44.4% | 64.0% | -19.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0 |
18 occurrences · 4,539 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
29.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 33.9% for a random short entry (-4.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.91×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.85R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.93R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 29.4% of the time vs 33.9% for a random short entry. The 4.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±22.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 17 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 17 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 29.4% | 33.9% | -4.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 17.6% | 27.0% | -9.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 5.9% | 22.2% | -16.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 70.6% | 66.0% | +4.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
17 occurrences · 4,672 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
33.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 34.1% for a random short entry (-0.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.71×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.70R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.85R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 34.1% for a random short entry. The 0.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±19.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 24 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 24 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 33.3% | 34.1% | -0.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 12.5% | 24.0% | -11.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 8.3% | 17.4% | -9.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 62.5% | 65.7% | -3.2 |
| Went sideways | 4.2% | 0.2% | +4.0 |
24 occurrences · 1,515,968 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
45.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 35.0% for a random short entry (+10.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.34×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.28R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.91R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 45.5% of the time vs 35.0% for a random short entry. The 10.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±28.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 45.5% | 35.0% | +10.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 36.4% | 25.1% | +11.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 9.1% | 18.9% | -9.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 45.5% | 64.8% | -19.3 |
| Went sideways | 9.1% | 0.2% | +8.9 |
11 occurrences · 336,460 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
20.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 35.0% for a random short entry (-15.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.68×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.89R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.93R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 20.0% of the time vs 35.0% for a random short entry. The 15.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 10 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 20.0% | 35.0% | -15.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 10.0% | 25.6% | -15.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 10.0% | 19.6% | -9.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 70.0% | 64.7% | +5.3 |
| Went sideways | 10.0% | 0.3% | +9.7 |
10 occurrences · 115,952 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
60.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 35.3% for a random short entry (+24.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.74×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.45R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.94R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 35.3% for a random short entry. The 24.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 10 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 60.0% | 35.3% | +24.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 30.0% | 26.3% | +3.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 20.0% | 20.5% | -0.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.0% | 64.6% | -24.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
10 occurrences · 58,710 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
57.1%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 35.9% for a random short entry (+21.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.92×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.31R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.97R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 57.1% of the time vs 35.9% for a random short entry. The 21.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±25.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 14 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 14 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 57.1% | 35.9% | +21.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 28.6% | 27.4% | +1.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 14.3% | 22.0% | -7.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 42.9% | 64.0% | -21.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
14 occurrences · 27,335 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 37.2% for a random short entry (+12.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.80×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.32R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.03R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 37.2% for a random short entry. The 12.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±27.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 12 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 12 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 37.2% | +12.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 33.3% | 30.9% | +2.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 16.7% | 26.8% | -10.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 62.7% | -12.7 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0 |
12 occurrences · 4,512 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
62.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 35.0% for a random short entry (+27.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.93×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.62R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.97R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 62.5% of the time vs 35.0% for a random short entry. The 27.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±33.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 62.5% | 35.0% | +27.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 50.0% | 28.4% | +21.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 25.0% | 23.4% | +1.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 37.5% | 65.0% | -27.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0 |
8 occurrences · 4,656 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
A bearish belt hold is a single candle that can stall a rally. It gaps open above the prior bar’s high, then sellers take it from the open and drive price down through the whole session, leaving a long red body with no upper wick. The open is the high, and price never looks back. That clean one-way slide from a gapped-up start is the rejection.
Steve Nison covers the belt hold in Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques (1991), where a long candle opens at its high and closes well below.
How to spot it
- The market is rising into the bar.
- The candle gaps open above the prior bar’s high.
- It is a long down (red) candle with the open at or very near the top of its range.
- There is no upper wick, so the open is the high.
- Price falls steadily from the open through the close.
The dashed box on the chart above marks the 1 candle on a real occurrence, with the advance before and the move after.
The psychology
The candle gaps open above the prior bar’s high, so the rally appears to be accelerating. Buyers who chased that gap are sitting on an instant gain, and for a moment the trend looks strongest right here. That is the trap.
From the open, price never trades higher. Sellers take the top tick and drive the bar down through the entire session, closing it deep in the red with no upper wick to show for any buying attempt. Everyone who bought the gap is now underwater, and some will have to sell to get out, which feeds the slide. In one bar the market goes from looking like a breakout to looking like a rejection, and control passes from the buyers who pushed the gap to the sellers who owned every tick after the open.
A clean one-way slide from a gapped-up high is a sharp reversal in shape. Whether it tends to carry through is what the numbers below measure.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.
For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.
Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close up to the pattern’s invalidation point: the highest high of the candle itself. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
- We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.
What this page does not cover
- Volume on the pattern’s candles.
- Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful resistance level.
- Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
- A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 49.25 | 0.21R | Stopped |
| Dec 10, 2024, 8:30 AM CST | 16.75 | 0.66R | Stopped |
| Aug 31, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 34 | 1.55R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 22, 2012, 8:55 AM CST | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 13, 2012, 1:30 PM CDT | 0.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 10, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 2.5 | 0.30R | Stopped |
| Dec 13, 2011, 1:26 PM CST | 1.75 | 0.71R | Stopped |
| Dec 13, 2011, 12:58 PM CST | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 12, 2011, 1:48 PM CST | 1 | 0.25R | Stopped |
| Sep 13, 2011, 2:58 PM CDT | 1.5 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Sep 13, 2011, 10:39 AM CDT | 1 | 1.75R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 11, 2009, 12:13 PM CDT | 0.5 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 25, 2009, 10:23 AM CDT | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 25, 2009, 8:57 AM CDT | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 8, 2009, 10:16 AM CDT | 1.5 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Mar 17, 2009, 9:56 AM CDT | 1.5 | 2.17R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 23, 2009, 9:54 AM CST | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 24, 2008, 11:34 AM CST | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 11, 2008, 11:45 AM CST | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 18, 2008, 2:43 PM CST | 9.75 | 0.33R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (10)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 94.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 23, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 87 | 0.11R | Stopped |
| Aug 31, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 66.25 | 0.31R | Stopped |
| Dec 22, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 34 | 0.23R | Stopped |
| Jul 28, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 16.5 | 1.24R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 5, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.25 | 2.60R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 12, 2010, 8:30 AM CST | 5.75 | 1.35R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 13, 2009, 11:10 AM CDT | 2.25 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 11, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.5 | 0.61R | Stopped |
| Jan 25, 2008, 8:30 AM CST | 9.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (15)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 40 | 0.10R | Stopped |
| Oct 16, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 111.5 | 0.35R | Stopped |
| Apr 16, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 49.25 | 0.73R | Flat |
| Jul 21, 2020, 8:30 AM CDT | 89.5 | 0.95R | Flat |
| Jan 31, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 56 | 2.35R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 3, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 40 | 2.04R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 27, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 32.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 19, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 24.75 | 1.51R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 7, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 21.5 | 2.90R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 20, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 21 | 0.20R | Stopped |
| Nov 5, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 22.25 | 0.85R | Flat |
| Mar 13, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 11.25 | 0.51R | Stopped |
| Sep 17, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.75 | 1.37R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 12, 2010, 8:30 AM CST | 5.75 | 1.35R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 20, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 12 | 0.50R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (17)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 130.5 | 1.77R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 22, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 87.25 | 0.84R | Stopped |
| Jul 23, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 30.25 | 0.81R | Stopped |
| Jul 27, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 53.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 25, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 82.5 | 0.17R | Stopped |
| Dec 29, 2017, 8:30 AM CST | 17.25 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 23, 2017, 8:30 AM CDT | 17.5 | 0.49R | Stopped |
| Dec 30, 2016, 8:30 AM CST | 45.5 | 0.68R | Stopped |
| Sep 14, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 33.5 | 0.42R | Stopped |
| Jul 7, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 30.5 | 1.75R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 3, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 13 | 2.31R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 2, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 19.25 | 0.70R | Flat |
| Aug 27, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 12.5 | 0.10R | Stopped |
| Nov 10, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 25.5 | 0.91R | Stopped |
| Jul 21, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 24.75 | 0.98R | Stopped |
| Oct 14, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 69.25 | 1.55R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 19, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 47 | 0.82R | Flat |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 167.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 12, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 180.5 | 0.29R | Stopped |
| Sep 11, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 251.5 | 0.43R | Stopped |
| Dec 6, 2023, 8:30 AM CST | 140.75 | 0.56R | Stopped |
| Aug 24, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 266.5 | 1.21R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 22, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 81 | 0.98R | Stopped |
| Mar 3, 2022, 8:30 AM CST | 208 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 21, 2020, 8:30 AM CDT | 102 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 23, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 39.25 | 0.39R | Stopped |
| Jul 19, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 35.75 | 2.34R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 20, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 37 | 1.59R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 5, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 66.75 | 0.37R | Stopped |
| Apr 27, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 97.25 | 0.83R | Flat |
| Dec 30, 2016, 8:30 AM CST | 53.75 | 0.42R | Stopped |
| Sep 14, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 31.5 | 0.51R | Stopped |
| Nov 5, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 28.5 | 0.57R | Stopped |
| Sep 3, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 19 | 1.82R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 20, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 19.5 | 0.45R | Stopped |
| Jan 19, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 15.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 6, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.25 | 2.80R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (18)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 116.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 16, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 153.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 11, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 419.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 23, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 136.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 24, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 370.5 | 0.59R | Stopped |
| May 5, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 447 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 5, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 109 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 27, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 44 | 2.22R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 25, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 55.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 7, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 85.25 | 0.35R | Stopped |
| Jul 27, 2017, 8:30 AM CDT | 117.25 | 1.08R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 18, 2016, 8:30 AM CST | 44.75 | 1.04R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 19, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 30 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 10, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 98.25 | 0.93R | Stopped |
| Feb 20, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 20.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 1, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 18.5 | 2.04R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 19, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 20.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 14, 2008, 8:30 AM CST | 27.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (17)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 250 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 23, 2024 | 285.75 | 1.59R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 24, 2023 | 480.5 | 0.22R | Stopped |
| Jun 16, 2023 | 200.75 | 2.10R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 2, 2021 | 244.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 21, 2020 | 181.5 | 2.87R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 28, 2020 | 238.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 18, 2016 | 61.25 | 0.49R | Stopped |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 90.5 | 0.97R | Stopped |
| Sep 9, 2015 | 100 | 0.10R | Stopped |
| Dec 23, 2014 | 33 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 3, 2014 | 35.25 | 0.52R | Stopped |
| Sep 16, 2013 | 36.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 7, 2012 | 36 | 0.36R | Stopped |
| Dec 2, 2011 | 31 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 7, 2010 | 25.75 | 0.29R | Stopped |
| Sep 6, 2010 | 8 | 1.97R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 5.5 | 0.55R | Flat |
| Feb 20, 2017, 8:30 AM CST | 1.25 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 5, 2016, 8:30 AM CST | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 22, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 1.5 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 21, 2011, 11:48 AM CST | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 13, 2011, 12:35 PM CDT | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 9, 2011, 12:30 PM CDT | 1.75 | 1.71R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 10, 2011, 10:14 AM CDT | 2.25 | 0.44R | Stopped |
| Nov 24, 2010, 2:07 PM CST | 0.5 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 1, 2010, 12:10 PM CDT | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 10, 2010, 2:30 PM CDT | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 10, 2010, 12:38 PM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 6, 2010, 8:37 AM CDT | 1 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 22, 2010, 8:50 AM CDT | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 11, 2009, 11:18 AM CST | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 3, 2009, 12:01 PM CDT | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 8, 2009, 11:08 AM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 22, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 22, 2009, 11:56 AM CDT | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 11, 2009, 1:15 PM CDT | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (11)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 8 | 0.06R | Stopped |
| Dec 13, 2022, 8:30 AM CST | 19.25 | 2.52R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 10, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 10 | 0.60R | Stopped |
| Jun 16, 2020, 8:30 AM CDT | 11.5 | 0.54R | Stopped |
| Feb 20, 2017, 8:30 AM CST | 2 | 0.50R | Flat |
| Jul 13, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.5 | 1.07R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 2, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.5 | 2.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 20, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 2, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 3 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 5, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.25 | 0.72R | Stopped |
| May 2, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 3 | 2.58R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (10)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 10.5 | 1.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 9, 2023, 8:30 AM CST | 11 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 12, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 11.5 | 0.83R | Stopped |
| May 25, 2020, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 5, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 6.25 | 0.88R | Stopped |
| Jun 20, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 2.75 | 0.27R | Stopped |
| Oct 3, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 4 | 0.94R | Stopped |
| Jan 6, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 5.75 | 0.61R | Flat |
| Aug 20, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.5 | 0.65R | Stopped |
| Jul 18, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.25 | 0.38R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (10)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 31.75 | 1.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 24, 2024, 8:30 AM CST | 7.5 | 0.97R | Stopped |
| Dec 6, 2023, 8:30 AM CST | 8.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 12, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 16.25 | 0.29R | Stopped |
| Aug 22, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 16 | 1.31R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 15, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 5.25 | 2.24R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 17, 2018, 8:30 AM CST | 7.25 | 0.03R | Stopped |
| Jul 7, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 10.5 | 1.76R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 18, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 8.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 18, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 8 | 0.25R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (14)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 54.75 | 2.21R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 4, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.25 | 0.11R | Stopped |
| Dec 6, 2023, 8:30 AM CST | 17.25 | 1.35R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 9, 2023, 8:30 AM CST | 20 | 1.55R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 22, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 16.75 | 1.18R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 13, 2022, 8:30 AM CST | 49 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 16, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 28.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 5, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 12.5 | 0.66R | Stopped |
| Oct 17, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 15.75 | 0.87R | Stopped |
| May 16, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.5 | 0.03R | Stopped |
| Aug 23, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.25 | 0.04R | Stopped |
| Mar 30, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 6 | 0.58R | Stopped |
| Mar 19, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 8.25 | 1.09R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 2, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.25 | 2.72R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (12)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 40.25 | 0.83R | Stopped |
| Jun 1, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 33.75 | 0.92R | Stopped |
| Sep 27, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 27.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 9, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 16.5 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 15, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 20, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 2.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 4, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 26 | 2.19R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 2, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 11 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 1, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 21 | 2.68R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 19, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 10.5 | 0.64R | Stopped |
| Jul 21, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 11.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 14, 2008, 8:30 AM CST | 16 | 1.58R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Belt Hold Firings (8)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2023 | 46.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 9, 2015 | 47.75 | 0.10R | Stopped |
| Jan 9, 2015 | 23.25 | 2.75R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 4, 2014 | 33.25 | 1.56R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 19, 2012 | 12.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 27.75 | 2.22R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 7, 2010 | 12 | 0.33R | Stopped |
| Jun 17, 2008 | 16.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample backtests (2)
Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.