Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Bullish Belt Hold
Single strong up candle after a fall: it gaps below the prior low, opens at its bottom, and rallies with no lower wick.
Shown only on the markets where this pattern occurs.
Limited sample (32). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
46.9%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.5% for a random long entry (+8.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.73×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.19R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.00R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 46.9% of the time vs 38.5% for a random long entry. The 8.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 32 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 46.9% | 38.5% | +8.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 31.3% | 28.1% | +3.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 21.9% | 21.1% | +0.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 46.9% | 61.3% | -14.4 |
| Went sideways | 6.3% | 0.2% | +6.0 |
32 occurrences · 1,653,674 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
63.2%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.6% for a random long entry (+24.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.19×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.32R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.02R for a random long entry.
Summary
The 24.6-point gap over the 38.6% random-entry rate clears the ±21.9-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 19 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 63.2% | 38.6% | +24.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 21.1% | 28.1% | -7.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 15.8% | 21.3% | -5.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 31.6% | 61.1% | -29.5 |
| Went sideways | 5.3% | 0.3% | +5.0 |
19 occurrences · 351,100 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
54.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.2% for a random long entry (+15.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.66×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.19R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 54.5% of the time vs 39.2% for a random long entry. The 15.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±28.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 54.5% | 39.2% | +15.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 27.3% | 28.9% | -1.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 9.1% | 22.3% | -13.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 36.4% | 60.4% | -24.0 |
| Went sideways | 9.1% | 0.5% | +8.6 |
11 occurrences · 118,985 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
42.9%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.3% for a random long entry (+2.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.95×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.09R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 42.9% of the time vs 40.3% for a random long entry. The 2.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±25.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 14 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 14 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 42.9% | 40.3% | +2.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 21.4% | 30.5% | -9.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 7.1% | 23.9% | -16.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 59.4% | -9.4 |
| Went sideways | 7.1% | 0.3% | +6.9 |
14 occurrences · 59,740 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
53.8%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.1% for a random long entry (+11.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.30×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.13R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 53.8% of the time vs 42.1% for a random long entry. The 11.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±26.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 13 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 13 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 53.8% | 42.1% | +11.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 23.1% | 32.5% | -9.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 7.7% | 26.4% | -18.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 46.2% | 57.7% | -11.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
13 occurrences · 27,661 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
30.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.5% for a random long entry (-17.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.92×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.76R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.32R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 30.0% of the time vs 47.5% for a random long entry. The 17.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±31.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 10 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 30.0% | 47.5% | -17.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 10.0% | 39.6% | -29.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 33.2% | -33.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 70.0% | 52.5% | +17.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0 |
10 occurrences · 4,546 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
55.6%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (+11.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.46×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.92R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.21R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 55.6% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 11.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 9 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 55.6% | 44.1% | +11.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 11.1% | 34.9% | -23.8 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 29.1% | -29.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 44.4% | 55.8% | -11.3 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
9 occurrences · 4,694 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Limited sample (31). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
41.9%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 35.0% for a random long entry (+7.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
2.03×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.88R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.87R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 41.9% of the time vs 35.0% for a random long entry. The 7.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 31 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 41.9% | 35.0% | +7.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 19.4% | 24.6% | -5.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 16.1% | 17.6% | -1.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 58.1% | 64.8% | -6.7 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2 |
31 occurrences · 1,521,822 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
45.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 37.1% for a random long entry (+8.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.29×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.02R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.96R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 45.5% of the time vs 37.1% for a random long entry. The 8.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±28.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 45.5% | 37.1% | +8.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 18.2% | 26.6% | -8.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 19.7% | -19.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 45.5% | 62.6% | -17.1 |
| Went sideways | 9.1% | 0.3% | +8.8 |
11 occurrences · 338,420 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
45.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.4% for a random long entry (+7.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.68×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.95R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.01R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 45.5% of the time vs 38.4% for a random long entry. The 7.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±28.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 45.5% | 38.4% | +7.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 9.1% | 28.0% | -18.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 9.1% | 21.2% | -12.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 54.5% | 61.3% | -6.7 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.4% | -0.4 |
11 occurrences · 116,903 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
66.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.9% for a random long entry (+26.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.70×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 66.7% of the time vs 39.9% for a random long entry. The 26.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±55.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 66.7% | 39.9% | +26.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 29.7% | -29.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 23.0% | -23.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 33.3% | 59.9% | -26.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2 |
3 occurrences · 59,158 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
87.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.7% for a random long entry (+45.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.71×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.42R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.
Summary
The 45.8-point gap over the 41.7% random-entry rate clears the ±34.2-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 87.5% | 41.7% | +45.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.0% | 32.0% | -7.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 25.9% | -25.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 12.5% | 58.2% | -45.7 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
8 occurrences · 27,507 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
60.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.2% for a random long entry (+12.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.98×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.81R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.30R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 47.2% for a random long entry. The 12.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±43.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 60.0% | 47.2% | +12.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 60.0% | 39.3% | +20.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 60.0% | 33.4% | +26.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.0% | 52.8% | -12.8 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0 |
5 occurrences · 4,539 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 1 bar that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
60.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random long entry (+16.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.87×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.13R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 43.8% for a random long entry. The 16.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±30.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 10 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 60.0% | 43.8% | +16.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 20.0% | 34.5% | -14.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 28.7% | -28.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.0% | 56.1% | -16.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
10 occurrences · 4,686 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
A bullish belt hold is a single candle that grabs control after a fall. It gaps open below the previous candle’s low, then never looks back. Price opens right at the bottom of the bar and climbs all day, leaving no lower wick. That long up candle starting from its own low shows buyers seizing the session from the first tick.
The belt hold is one of the single-candle signals Steve Nison describes in Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques (1991), a long candle opening at its extreme.
How to spot it
- The market is falling into the pattern.
- The candle gaps open below the previous candle’s low.
- It opens at or very near its own low, with no lower wick.
- It is a strong up (green) candle that climbs from the open.
- The longer the body and the cleaner the bottom, the stronger the hold.
The dashed box on the chart above marks the belt hold and the bar before it, on a real occurrence.
The psychology
The gap below the previous low is the sellers making one last statement. Price opens beneath everything that came before, which is exactly where bears want it after a fall. For a moment they look fully in command.
That command lasts a single tick. Price opens at the very bottom of the bar and never trades lower, then climbs through the whole session. The absence of a lower wick is the tell: buyers met the open and pushed from the first moment, giving sellers no chance to extend the gap. By the close, the bar that started as a fresh low has become a long run higher, and anyone who sold into that gap is already underwater. The longer and cleaner that body, the more convincingly buyers have taken the day.
Whether grabbing one session like that leads anywhere further is what the numbers below weigh.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.
For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.
Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close down to the pattern’s invalidation point: the lowest low of the candle itself. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
- We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.
What this page does not cover
- Volume on the pattern’s candles.
- Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful support level.
- Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
- A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 41.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 27, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 26.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 27, 2023, 8:30 AM CST | 36.75 | 0.03R | Stopped |
| Jul 10, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 35.25 | 0.35R | Stopped |
| Jul 5, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 36 | 1.87R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 14, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 38 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 13, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 58.5 | 0.33R | Stopped |
| Aug 26, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 16.5 | 0.65R | Flat |
| Oct 14, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 16.5 | 0.38R | Stopped |
| Oct 26, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 35 | 2.01R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 1, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.75 | 1.43R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 12, 2015, 8:30 AM CST | 7.25 | 0.07R | Stopped |
| Dec 28, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 3.5 | 2.14R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 30, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 4 | 0.81R | Flat |
| Sep 13, 2011, 11:36 AM CDT | 2.25 | 1.56R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 13, 2011, 11:27 AM CDT | 1.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 14, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 2.75 | 0.73R | Stopped |
| Mar 16, 2009, 10:01 AM CDT | 2.25 | 2.44R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 9, 2009, 9:22 AM CDT | 1.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 23, 2009, 12:34 PM CST | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (19)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026, 8:30 AM CST | 108.5 | 1.07R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 18, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 47 | 0.05R | Stopped |
| Jun 2, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 118.5 | 0.45R | Stopped |
| Jun 5, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 38.5 | 1.70R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 2, 2022, 8:30 AM CST | 57.5 | 0.18R | Stopped |
| Oct 6, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 62.25 | 1.12R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 18, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 63.5 | 0.31R | Stopped |
| Jul 29, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 44.5 | 1.29R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 10, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 36.25 | 1.77R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 9, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 10.25 | 2.83R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 18, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 21 | 1.26R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 25, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 2 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 10, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.75 | 1.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 11, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 16 | 0.09R | Flat |
| Aug 12, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 6 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 11, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 5.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 17, 2008, 1:25 PM CDT | 4.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 29, 2008, 8:30 AM CST | 2.75 | 0.91R | Stopped |
| Feb 5, 2008, 8:30 AM CST | 7.5 | 1.70R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (11)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 37.5 | 2.72R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 23, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 22.5 | 2.91R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 30, 2017, 8:30 AM CDT | 20.25 | 1.25R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 4, 2017, 8:30 AM CDT | 15.25 | 0.10R | Stopped |
| Nov 16, 2016, 8:30 AM CST | 34.5 | 0.57R | Flat |
| Jun 14, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 24.5 | 0.09R | Stopped |
| Mar 21, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 18.25 | 0.16R | Stopped |
| Sep 18, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 26.25 | 1.19R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 4, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 28.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 25, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 4 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 12, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 12.25 | 1.08R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (14)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026, 8:30 AM CST | 200.25 | 0.12R | Stopped |
| Sep 5, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 168.25 | 0.58R | Stopped |
| Jan 14, 2022, 8:30 AM CST | 201.25 | 0.15R | Stopped |
| Jul 30, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 82 | 1.26R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 17, 2020, 8:30 AM CDT | 118.5 | 0.73R | Stopped |
| Feb 10, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 69.25 | 2.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 9, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 31.25 | 0.17R | Stopped |
| Mar 21, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 48.25 | 2.11R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 22, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 21.25 | 1.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 6, 2016, 8:30 AM CST | 30.5 | 0.95R | Stopped |
| Jul 22, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 36 | 0.16R | Flat |
| Aug 12, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 14.25 | 1.51R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 7, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 17.25 | 0.84R | Stopped |
| Jun 20, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 11.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (13)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026, 8:30 AM CST | 326.25 | 0.26R | Stopped |
| Apr 2, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 282.25 | 1.03R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 5, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 220.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 8, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 126 | 1.14R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 10, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 82.75 | 2.05R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 17, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 55.5 | 0.87R | Stopped |
| Jul 17, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 55.25 | 1.47R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 1, 2017, 8:30 AM CST | 36 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 12, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 58.75 | 1.60R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 1, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 53.25 | 0.24R | Stopped |
| Apr 8, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 26.5 | 2.97R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 19, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 47.5 | 0.05R | Stopped |
| Feb 5, 2009, 8:30 AM CST | 16.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (10)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026, 8:30 AM CST | 371.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 3, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 141.75 | 0.83R | Stopped |
| Oct 28, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 323 | 0.28R | Stopped |
| Sep 12, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 72.5 | 2.41R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 14, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 50.5 | 1.18R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 21, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 53 | 0.77R | Stopped |
| Dec 9, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 33.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 11, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 21.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 26, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 65.5 | 1.53R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 4, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 38.5 | 0.62R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (9)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 317 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 378.25 | 0.09R | Stopped |
| Feb 10, 2020 | 146.25 | 1.53R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 4, 2018 | 231.5 | 1.29R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 12, 2016 | 110 | 1.25R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 12, 2011 | 53.75 | 2.60R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 27 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 26, 2009 | 66 | 1.52R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 11, 2008 | 60.75 | 0.02R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 8.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 18, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 11 | 1.45R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 17, 2022, 8:30 AM CST | 3.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 14, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 2.5 | 0.60R | Stopped |
| Jun 25, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 28, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 28, 2011, 10:16 AM CST | 1 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 22, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 5, 2011, 10:23 AM CDT | 1 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 9, 2010, 11:37 AM CST | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 27, 2010, 12:15 PM CDT | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 19, 2010, 2:30 PM CDT | 0.75 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 23, 2010, 1:12 PM CDT | 0.5 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 30, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 1 | 1.25R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 23, 2010, 9:59 AM CDT | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 12, 2009, 12:36 PM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 24, 2009, 10:43 AM CDT | 0.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 2, 2009, 9:09 AM CDT | 0.75 | 1.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 5, 2009, 10:48 AM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 1, 2009, 11:41 AM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (11)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 16.75 | 0.24R | Stopped |
| Jun 13, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 15.5 | 0.32R | Stopped |
| Apr 18, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 17 | 0.62R | Flat |
| Jul 30, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.25 | 2.40R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 13, 2021, 8:30 AM CST | 5.5 | 0.18R | Stopped |
| Feb 10, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 8.75 | 1.89R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 18, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 8.25 | 1.03R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 16, 2015, 8:30 AM CST | 6.75 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Jul 8, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 2.75 | 0.55R | Stopped |
| Sep 14, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 3 | 2.17R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 16, 2008, 8:30 AM CST | 5.25 | 1.14R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (11)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026, 8:30 AM CST | 22 | 1.45R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 5, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 19.5 | 1.36R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 18, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 23.25 | 0.18R | Stopped |
| Oct 18, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 4.5 | 0.61R | Stopped |
| Mar 21, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 11 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 27, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 6 | 0.13R | Stopped |
| Dec 6, 2017, 8:30 AM CST | 5.5 | 0.23R | Stopped |
| Sep 18, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 8.25 | 1.27R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 4, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 8.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 8, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.25 | 0.31R | Stopped |
| Aug 27, 2010, 12:15 PM CDT | 3.5 | 1.86R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (3)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 14.5 | 0.47R | Stopped |
| Dec 9, 2015, 8:30 AM CST | 12 | 1.15R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 25, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.5 | 1.38R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (8)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 62 | 1.07R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 27, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 44.25 | 1.55R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 5, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 16.25 | 0.25R | Stopped |
| Feb 10, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 21.25 | 2.04R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 17, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.75 | 2.52R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 12, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 18 | 1.40R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 8, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 11 | 1.45R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 16, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 23.75 | 1.12R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (5)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 18.25 | 0.05R | Stopped |
| Jun 25, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 6, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 15.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 20, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 12.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 2, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Belt Hold Firings (10)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2019 | 17.75 | 2.59R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 4, 2018 | 72 | 1.04R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 13, 2017 | 11 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 12, 2016 | 40.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 16, 2015 | 34.5 | 1.57R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 25, 2014 | 13 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 31, 2012 | 29.25 | 2.85R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 6, 2011 | 26.5 | 1.48R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 20, 2010 | 26.5 | 1.78R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 19, 2010 | 15 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample backtest
Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.