Pattern Detail

Bullish Matching Low

Two-candle bullish reversal: two down candles in a row that close at the same price, marking a floor.

A real Bullish Matching Low on NQ daily bars, Oct 16, 2014. Price then followed through 6.8% over the next 5 bars. The bright candles are the pattern; the dimmed bars are surrounding context.
A real Bullish Matching Low on NQ daily bars, Oct 16, 2014. Price then followed through 6.8% over the next 5 bars. The bright candles are the pattern; the dimmed bars are surrounding context.
i

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

38.5%

Backwards

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.8% for a random long entry (-3.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.79×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.02R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 38.5% of the time vs 41.8% for a random long entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome This setup Random entry Edge
Offered ≥ 1R 38.5% 41.8% -3.4
Offered ≥ 2R 29.6% 28.1% +1.5
Offered ≥ 3R 23.5% 19.9% +3.6
Stopped < 1R 61.4% 56.3% +5.1
Went sideways 0.1% 1.8% -1.8

16,617 occurrences · 1,150,038 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

A bullish matching low is a quiet two-candle bottom. Two down candles appear in a row, but they close at the same price. The second day’s selling could not push the close any lower than the first. That shared floor shows sellers running out of room, a level price refused to break, which often marks the end of the slide.

How to spot it

  • The market is falling into the pattern.
  • The first candle is a down (red) candle that fits the decline.
  • The second candle is also a down (red) candle.
  • Both candles close at nearly the same price, forming a matched floor.
  • The tighter the two closes line up, the cleaner the support it marks.

The dashed box on the chart above marks the two candles on a real occurrence, with the decline before and the move after.

The psychology

Both bars are down candles, so sellers are still pressing and the trend looks intact. The tell is hidden in where the second one stops. Sellers come back the next session and push again, yet for all that effort the close settles at the exact level it reached the day before. They tried to take price lower and could not.

That shared floor is the quiet part of the story. A level that holds twice in a row is one where buyers keep stepping in at the same price, soaking up the supply each time it arrives. The sellers are spending energy and getting nothing for it, which is how a downtrend starts to stall. Nothing has reversed outright, but the market has drawn a line it refused to cross.

The matched closes mark that line. Whether a floor like this tends to hold and lift price is the question the numbers below take on.

Does it actually work?

A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.

For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.

Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.

How we measured it

  • Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
  • One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close down to the pattern’s invalidation point: the lowest low of the two candles that form it. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
  • We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
  • Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
  • No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.

What this page does not cover

  • Volume on the pattern’s candles.
  • Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful support level.
  • Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
  • A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.

Sample Bullish Matching Low Firings (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time Risk (pts) Room offered Result
Apr 29, 2026, 6:25 AM CDT 3 0.00R Stopped
Apr 29, 2026, 2:50 AM CDT 15 2.43R Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026, 9:35 PM CDT 7.75 0.00R Stopped
Apr 28, 2026, 7:50 PM CDT 6.25 0.00R Stopped
Apr 28, 2026, 2:45 PM CDT 9.5 0.00R Stopped
Apr 28, 2026, 6:50 AM CDT 19.25 0.75R Stopped
Apr 28, 2026, 6:30 AM CDT 29.25 0.00R Stopped
Apr 28, 2026, 4:40 AM CDT 9.5 0.00R Stopped
Apr 28, 2026, 3:45 AM CDT 4.25 0.00R Stopped
Apr 28, 2026, 12:15 AM CDT 10.25 1.37R Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026, 10:00 PM CDT 7 3.00R Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026, 7:30 PM CDT 12.5 1.50R Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026, 1:45 PM CDT 9.5 0.00R Stopped
Apr 27, 2026, 1:35 PM CDT Open
Apr 27, 2026, 1:30 PM CDT 2.5 0.00R Stopped
Apr 27, 2026, 9:30 AM CDT 34 1.49R Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026, 6:40 AM CDT 3.5 3.00R Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026, 5:10 AM CDT 5.5 3.00R Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026, 12:15 AM CDT 2.25 0.00R Stopped
Apr 26, 2026, 9:20 PM CDT 10.5 1.40R Ran ≥1R

Sample backtests (2)

Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.

Backtest this pattern

Run it on your contracts, timeframes, and dates.