Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Bullish Rising Three Methods
Five-candle continuation: a long up candle, three small down candles that drift inside its range, then a long up candle to a new high.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 5 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.5% for a random long entry (-42.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.24×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.84R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 42.5% for a random long entry. The 42.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 42.5% | -42.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 25.1% | -25.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 16.2% | -16.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 49.8% | +50.2 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 7.7% | -7.7 |
1 occurrences · 1,180,027 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 5 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.4% for a random long entry (-41.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.21×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.07R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 41.4% for a random long entry. The 41.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 41.4% | -41.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 24.2% | -24.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 15.4% | -15.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 52.0% | +48.0 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 6.7% | -6.7 |
1 occurrences · 5,787,559 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 5 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
33.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.4% for a random long entry (-7.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
2.04×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.08R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.02R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 40.4% for a random long entry. The 7.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±55.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 33.3% | 40.4% | -7.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 33.3% | 23.9% | +9.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 33.3% | 15.4% | +18.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 66.7% | 52.7% | +13.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 6.8% | -6.8 |
3 occurrences · 4,201,734 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 5 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
100.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.4% for a random long entry (+58.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.21×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
3.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 41.4% for a random long entry. The 58.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 100.0% | 41.4% | +58.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 100.0% | 24.9% | +75.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 100.0% | 16.3% | +83.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 0.0% | 51.5% | -51.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 7.1% | -7.1 |
1 occurrences · 949,343 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
A rising three methods is a five-candle continuation in an uptrend. A long up candle leads. Then three small down candles drift lower, each holding inside the range of that first big candle, a gentle pause rather than a real selloff. A fifth long up candle finishes the move, closing above everything before it. The three quiet down candles are just a rest. Buyers were always in control, and the final candle confirms the trend rolls on.
Rising three methods is one of the classical continuation patterns Steve Nison documents in Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques (1991).
How to spot it
- The market is rising into the pattern.
- The first candle is a long up (green) candle.
- The next three are down (red) candles, each opening inside the prior body and closing a little lower.
- That three-candle pullback stays inside the range of the first big up candle.
- The fifth candle is a long up candle that closes above the start of the pullback, pushing to a new high.
The dashed box on the chart above marks the five candles on a real occurrence, with the advance before and the move after.
The psychology
The first long up candle is the uptrend doing its job: buyers in control, pushing price up with conviction. This is not a turning point, it is the trend already in motion.
The three small down candles that follow are profit-taking and a breather, nothing more. Price drifts lower, but each candle stays inside the range of that first big bar, so the pullback never erases the advance or threatens to break it. Sellers get a few sessions of give-back, yet they cannot drag price out of the territory the buyers staked out. It is a pause where the dominant side rests and lets weak hands sell before pressing again. The fifth long up candle is the reload paying off: buyers step back in, close above everything before them, and carry the move to a new high.
Whether the trend keeps running after that reload is the question the figures below address.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.
For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.
Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close down to the pattern’s invalidation point: the lowest low of the 5 candles that form it. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
- We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.
What this page does not cover
- Volume on the pattern’s candles.
- Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful support level.
- Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
- A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
Sample Bullish Rising Three Methods Firings (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2019, 9:55 PM CDT | 4.75 | 0.84R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Rising Three Methods Firings (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2009, 12:35 PM CST | 1.2 | 0.07R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Rising Three Methods Firings (3)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2021, 9:13 AM CDT | 0.042 | 0.02R | Stopped |
| Jan 6, 2011, 10:01 AM CST | 0.023 | 0.22R | Stopped |
| Nov 5, 2008, 12:00 PM CST | 0.02 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Rising Three Methods Firings (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2025, 2:22 PM CST | 0.018 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |