Shark

What this pattern measures

The Shark, defined by Scott Carney, is labeled across five points O, X, A, B, C rather than the usual XABCD. It is built from extensions rather than retracements: the X-to-A leg is a retracement of the opening O-to-X leg, then A to B and B to C are two strong extensions that drive price into the C reaction point. The exact ratios vary across sources; this page uses a consistent definition of a retracement followed by two extensions.

This page measures what happened after each completed Shark, scored by the trade the structure implies: fade the second extension at C, target a 0.618 retracement of the move, stop just beyond C.

Definitions used on this page:

• XA retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of OX, AB extends 1.13 to 1.618 of XA, and BC extends 1.618 to 2.24 of AB. C is the completion.
• Pivots are confirmed swing highs and lows at balanced strictness: 3 bars on each side, with a 5% tolerance on every ratio. A pattern is counted only on the bar its final pivot confirms.
• The implied trade enters at the close of the confirming bar against the extension, targets a 0.618 retracement of the structure, and stops just beyond C. It is given 60 bars to resolve before timing out.
• Outcomes are measured on CME:NQ at 15-minute and 5-minute bars.

Why it matters

The Shark catches a market that is extending hard in one direction and is due for a reaction. C is the reaction point, where the second extension is expected to stall. A structure made of extensions is, by definition, a strong trend, so fading the C point means betting against momentum that is still building. Because the definition is loose, the shape also appears often, which makes it useful for seeing how a high-frequency, momentum-fading setup behaves over a long sample.

How to read the numbers

• Win rate is the share of decided trades, wins plus losses, that reached the target before the stop. Timeouts are excluded and reported on their own.
• Avg return is the mean outcome across every completed pattern, signed so positive favours the trade direction.
• Avg win and avg loss split the decided trades into their winning and losing sides.
• Bullish and bearish counts show which direction the structure completed in.

What’s not here

• No momentum filter, which matters most for a pattern that fades a building trend.
• No confluence with longer-term levels at the reaction point.
• A single contract and two intraday timeframes.