Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Three-Bar Reversal
How often a fourth-bar reversal after three directional sessions actually carries into the next day.
Total Reversals
530
Three-bar reversal sessions in NQ over the sample period
Bull-to-Bear
286
Three up sessions then a lower-high+lower-low session
Bear-to-Bull
244
Three down sessions then a higher-high+higher-low session
Continuation Breakdown
Bull-to-Bear
- Reversals
- 286
- Continued
- 122
- Continuation rate
- 42.7%
- Avg next move
- -0.05%
Bear-to-Bull
- Reversals
- 244
- Continued
- 132
- Continuation rate
- 54.1%
- Avg next move
- -0.14%
Avg next move is signed in the reversal direction. Positive = the reversal sustained on average.
Recent Reversals (20)
| Date | Type | Continued | Next Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Bear → Bull | Yes | +0.76% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Bull → Bear | Yes | +1.22% |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.32% |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.98% |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Bull → Bear | Yes | +0.24% |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Bear → Bull | Yes | +0.15% |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.13% |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Bear → Bull | No | -0.26% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.63% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.47% |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.75% |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.46% |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Bear → Bull | Yes | +0.45% |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Bull → Bear | Yes | +0.37% |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.91% |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.12% |
| Aug 14, 2025 | Bull → Bear | Yes | +0.48% |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.44% |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Bull → Bear | Yes | +0.10% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Bull → Bear | No | -0.67% |
Detection scan: NQ 1d · 2008-01-02 to 2026-02-24 · generated Apr 26, 2026
What this pattern measures
A three-bar reversal is a session that breaks the directional momentum of the previous three. Two flavors:
- Bull-to-bear: three consecutive sessions of higher highs AND higher lows, followed by a session with both a lower high AND a lower low.
- Bear-to-bull: the mirror — three sessions of lower highs and lower lows, then a session with higher high and higher low.
Definitions used on this page:
- Sessions are aggregated from RTH bars only (08:30 to 15:00 Central Time for CME equity index futures).
- The “reversal session” is the fourth bar — the one breaking the pattern.
- Continuation = the next session closed further in the reversal direction (lower for bull-to-bear, higher for bear-to-bull) than the reversal session’s close.
Why it matters
The three-bar reversal is one of the older bar-shape signals. The thesis is that three consecutive directional sessions exhaust the move and the fourth bar telegraphs a turn. The follow-through question is whether the reversal session is the start of a new direction or just a one-day shake.
How to read the numbers
- Continuation rate is the share of reversal events whose next session closed further in the reversal direction.
- Avg next move is the average next-session close move from the reversal session’s close, signed in the reversal direction. Positive means the reversal sustained on average.
- The two reversal types are reported separately. They tend to behave differently because asymmetry between bullish and bearish regimes is a real feature of equity index futures.
What’s not here
- Looser pattern variants (some traders allow inside bars within the three, or count higher-high-only without higher-low).
- Multi-day follow-through windows.
- Conditioning on the sizes of the three preceding bars.