Three Drives

What this pattern measures

Three Drives is the most visual pattern in the family. It is three successive pushes in the same direction, each reaching a new extreme, separated by two partial pullbacks. The pullbacks retrace a similar fraction of the prior drive, and the drives are roughly equal in size, which gives the structure its symmetry. There is no single completion ratio; the pattern is defined by the rhythm of three matched drives and two matched corrections.

This page measures what happened after each completed Three Drives, scored by the trade the structure implies: fade the third drive, target a 0.618 retracement of the move, stop just beyond the final extreme.

Definitions used on this page:

• The second drive extends 1.13 to 1.618 of the first pullback, the second pullback retraces 0.5 to 0.786 of the second drive, the third drive extends 1.13 to 1.618 of the second pullback, and the third drive stays close in size to the second for symmetry.
• Pivots are confirmed swing highs and lows at balanced strictness: 3 bars on each side, with a 5% tolerance on every ratio. A pattern is counted only on the bar its final pivot confirms.
• The implied trade enters at the close of the confirming bar against the third drive, targets a 0.618 retracement of the structure, and stops just beyond the final extreme. It is given 60 bars to resolve before timing out.
• Outcomes are measured on CME:NQ at 15-minute and 5-minute bars.

Why it matters

Three matched pushes into the same extreme are read as a climax. By the third drive the move has shown its hand, momentum is fading, and the symmetry suggests the trend is running on fumes. The entry fades the third drive, betting the fourth push does not come. It fails when the third drive is not the last: strong trends can print four, five, or more drives, and fading the third leaves a trade against a move that keeps going.

How to read the numbers

• Win rate is the share of decided trades, wins plus losses, that reached the target before the stop. Timeouts are excluded and reported on their own.
• Avg return is the mean outcome across every completed pattern, signed so positive favours the trade direction.
• Avg win and avg loss split the decided trades into their winning and losing sides.
• Bullish and bearish counts show which direction the structure completed in.

What’s not here

• No judgement of whether the third drive is genuinely the last.
• No confluence with longer-term levels at the final extreme.
• A single contract and two intraday timeframes.