Pattern Detail

Bullish Concealing Baby Swallow

Four-candle bottom: two strong down candles, a third that gaps lower with a long upper wick, and a fourth that swallows it whole.

An idealized Bullish Concealing Baby Swallow, drawn to show the shape. This pattern did not occur on the markets tested, so this is a textbook example rather than a real occurrence. The bright candles are the pattern; the dimmed bars are surrounding context.
An idealized Bullish Concealing Baby Swallow, drawn to show the shape. This pattern did not occur on the markets tested, so this is a textbook example rather than a real occurrence. The bright candles are the pattern; the dimmed bars are surrounding context.

Shown only on the markets where this pattern occurs.

This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

A concealing baby swallow is a rare four-candle bottom that builds through heavy selling before turning. The first two candles are strong full-bodied down candles, sellers fully in charge. The third gaps lower and is small with a long upper wick, a feeble attempt to rally that gets slapped down. Then the fourth candle opens higher and engulfs the third entirely, swallowing it. That final candle conceals the baby and signals the selling has run its course.

How to spot it

  • The market is falling into the pattern.
  • The first two candles are down (red) candles with full, solid bodies.
  • The third candle is a small down candle that gaps below the second and has a long upper wick.
  • The fourth candle opens above the third and engulfs it completely.
  • The sequence is heavy selling, then a weak poke up, then a candle that swallows it whole.

The psychology

The first two candles are sellers at full strength. Two solid down bodies, no real wicks to speak of, the kind of selling that gives buyers nowhere to stand. Anyone watching would read this as a decline firmly in control. The third candle gaps lower again and tries to rally, but the long upper wick shows that push getting rejected and price sliding back down. Even the attempt to bounce fails.

Then the fourth candle rewrites the story. It opens higher and runs up far enough to engulf the third bar completely, swallowing the weak poke that came before it. After three sessions where every move favored the downside, buyers finally step in with enough size to take back a full candle in one go. The contrast is what traders notice: relentless selling, a failed rally, and then a single bar that reverses the tone. The deeper the fourth candle reaches over the third, the more it looks like the supply that drove the fall has finally been used up.

A turn that arrives after such heavy selling deserves a closer look, and the numbers below provide it.

Does it actually work?

A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.

For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.

Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.

Did it appear?

In the five futures markets and the history measured here, this pattern did not occur. It is widely held to be the rarest candlestick of all: two nearly wick-free down candles, then a short down candle that gaps below with a long upper tail, then a candle that swallows the prior one whole. These futures do not print it. The measurement below is ready for it, but on these markets there has been nothing to measure. Treat it as a textbook form to recognize rather than a setup you will meet often here.

How we measured it

  • Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
  • One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close down to the pattern’s invalidation point: the lowest low of the 4 candles that form it. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
  • We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
  • Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
  • No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.

What this page does not cover

  • Volume on the pattern’s candles.
  • Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful support level.
  • Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
  • A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.

Backtest this pattern

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