Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Crab
The deepest extension in the family, completing at a 1.618 projection, built for sharp reversals from overshoots.
Completions
18
Completed Crab structures on NQ over the sample period
Win Rate (decided)
44.4%
Share of decided trades (18 wins plus losses) that hit the target before the stop
Avg Return
-0.18%
Mean outcome across every completion, signed so positive favours the trade
Outcome Breakdown
Wins
- Count
- 8
- Avg return
- +0.31%
Losses
- Count
- 10
- Avg return
- -0.58%
Timeouts
- Count
- 0
- Resolve window
- 60 bars
Recent Crab Completions (18)
| Date | Direction | Entry | Return | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | Bearish | 26,469.5 | +0.32% | Win |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Bullish | 20,576.5 | -0.16% | Loss |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Bullish | 18,966 | +0.28% | Win |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Bullish | 17,990.25 | +0.07% | Win |
| Mar 8, 2021 | Bullish | 12,456.5 | -0.51% | Loss |
| Nov 8, 2018 | Bullish | 7,155.75 | +0.26% | Win |
| Oct 29, 2018 | Bearish | 6,936.25 | +0.98% | Win |
| Oct 18, 2018 | Bullish | 7,227.5 | -0.40% | Loss |
| Dec 4, 2015 | Bearish | 4,655 | -0.37% | Loss |
| Jul 23, 2015 | Bullish | 4,588.5 | +0.30% | Win |
| Apr 9, 2015 | Bearish | 4,371.25 | +0.08% | Win |
| Jan 17, 2014 | Bullish | 3,592.25 | +0.20% | Win |
| Sep 2, 2011 | Bullish | 2,165.75 | -0.33% | Loss |
| Dec 29, 2010 | Bearish | 2,230.25 | -0.18% | Loss |
| May 27, 2010 | Bearish | 1,835.5 | -0.68% | Loss |
| Apr 8, 2009 | Bearish | 1,291.5 | -0.81% | Loss |
| Jan 17, 2008 | Bullish | 1,884.5 | -1.29% | Loss |
| Jan 14, 2008 | Bearish | 1,940 | -1.04% | Loss |
Detection scan: NQ 5m · 2008-01-02 to 2026-04-24 · generated May 29, 2026
Completions
10
Completed Crab structures on NQ over the sample period
Win Rate (decided)
30.0%
Share of decided trades (10 wins plus losses) that hit the target before the stop
Avg Return
-0.24%
Mean outcome across every completion, signed so positive favours the trade
Outcome Breakdown
Wins
- Count
- 3
- Avg return
- +0.64%
Losses
- Count
- 7
- Avg return
- -0.62%
Timeouts
- Count
- 0
- Resolve window
- 60 bars
Recent Crab Completions (10)
| Date | Direction | Entry | Return | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | Bearish | 25,891.25 | -0.29% | Loss |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Bearish | 21,903 | +1.25% | Win |
| May 9, 2022 | Bullish | 12,378.5 | -1.79% | Loss |
| Dec 18, 2019 | Bearish | 8,633.5 | +0.21% | Win |
| Sep 20, 2018 | Bearish | 7,589.5 | -0.48% | Loss |
| May 8, 2017 | Bearish | 5,641.5 | -0.26% | Loss |
| Nov 17, 2015 | Bearish | 4,584 | -0.59% | Loss |
| Jun 26, 2013 | Bearish | 2,881.75 | -0.50% | Loss |
| Dec 3, 2012 | Bearish | 2,691.25 | +0.45% | Win |
| Jul 13, 2010 | Bearish | 1,839.75 | -0.44% | Loss |
Detection scan: NQ 15m · 2008-01-02 to 2026-04-24 · generated May 29, 2026
- B = 0.382-0.618 of XA
- C = 0.382-0.886 of AB
- D = 2.618-3.618 of BC
- D = 1.618 of XA
What this pattern measures
The Crab, another of Scott Carney’s patterns, is the most extended structure in the family. D completes at a 1.618 extension of the X-to-A leg, reached through a very long C-to-D projection. The result is a deep overshoot far beyond the origin before the turn.
This page measures what happened after each completed Crab, scored by the trade the structure implies: fade the overshoot, target a 0.618 retracement of the move, stop just beyond the completion.
Definitions used on this page:
- B retraces 0.382 to 0.618 of XA, C retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of AB, D projects 2.618 to 3.618 of BC, and D extends to 1.618 of XA.
- Pivots are confirmed swing highs and lows at balanced strictness: 3 bars on each side, with a 5% tolerance on every ratio. A pattern is counted only on the bar its final pivot confirms.
- The implied trade enters at the close of the confirming bar against the overshoot, targets a 0.618 retracement of the structure, and stops just beyond D. It is given 60 bars to resolve before timing out.
- Outcomes are measured on CME:NQ at 15-minute and 5-minute bars.
Why it matters
The Crab is built for the kind of blow-off where price stretches well past any reasonable target and then reverses hard. The far-away completion gives a precise level to fade, and the reversal from a true Crab can be the sharpest of any harmonic pattern. The same far-away completion is the risk: the Crab asks a trade to fade an already-violent move, which is exactly when trends can keep accelerating, so a Crab that does not turn leaves the trade short a runaway rally or long a falling knife.
How to read the numbers
- Win rate is the share of decided trades, wins plus losses, that reached the target before the stop. Timeouts are excluded and reported on their own.
- Avg return is the mean outcome across every completed pattern, signed so positive favours the trade direction.
- Avg win and avg loss split the decided trades into their winning and losing sides.
- Bullish and bearish counts show which direction the structure completed in.
What’s not here
- No check for the capitulation or momentum context a Crab fade usually needs.
- No confluence with longer-term levels at the completion.
- A single contract and two intraday timeframes. The Crab is one of the rarer structures, so counts run low.