Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Butterfly
An extension pattern that completes beyond the origin, fading exhaustion as price prints a fresh extreme.
Completions
84
Completed Butterfly structures on NQ over the sample period
Win Rate (decided)
65.5%
Share of decided trades (84 wins plus losses) that hit the target before the stop
Avg Return
+0.06%
Mean outcome across every completion, signed so positive favours the trade
Outcome Breakdown
Wins
- Count
- 55
- Avg return
- +0.22%
Losses
- Count
- 29
- Avg return
- -0.23%
Timeouts
- Count
- 0
- Resolve window
- 60 bars
Recent Butterfly Completions (20)
| Date | Direction | Entry | Return | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Bearish | 24,938.5 | +0.45% | Win |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Bullish | 25,669.25 | +0.05% | Win |
| Sep 9, 2025 | Bullish | 23,785.75 | +0.09% | Win |
| Jul 29, 2025 | Bullish | 23,457 | +0.12% | Win |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Bullish | 21,982.5 | +0.11% | Win |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Bullish | 19,341.25 | +0.37% | Win |
| Dec 5, 2024 | Bullish | 21,480.25 | +0.08% | Win |
| Jul 1, 2024 | Bearish | 20,012 | +0.03% | Win |
| May 9, 2024 | Bearish | 18,216.75 | -0.16% | Loss |
| May 7, 2024 | Bearish | 18,241.75 | +0.16% | Win |
| May 1, 2024 | Bearish | 17,499.25 | -0.25% | Loss |
| Feb 15, 2024 | Bullish | 17,816.5 | +0.09% | Win |
| Jan 23, 2024 | Bearish | 17,476.5 | -0.15% | Loss |
| Aug 2, 2023 | Bullish | 15,475 | +0.05% | Win |
| Feb 27, 2023 | Bearish | 12,118.25 | -0.19% | Loss |
| Oct 3, 2022 | Bearish | 11,274 | -0.20% | Loss |
| Sep 8, 2022 | Bearish | 12,329.5 | +0.92% | Win |
| Aug 19, 2022 | Bearish | 13,281 | +0.03% | Win |
| Jun 30, 2022 | Bullish | 11,579.25 | +0.21% | Win |
| Jun 3, 2022 | Bullish | 12,543.25 | +0.20% | Win |
Detection scan: NQ 5m · 2008-01-02 to 2026-04-24 · generated May 29, 2026
Completions
24
Completed Butterfly structures on NQ over the sample period
Win Rate (decided)
41.7%
Share of decided trades (24 wins plus losses) that hit the target before the stop
Avg Return
-0.30%
Mean outcome across every completion, signed so positive favours the trade
Outcome Breakdown
Wins
- Count
- 10
- Avg return
- +0.29%
Losses
- Count
- 14
- Avg return
- -0.72%
Timeouts
- Count
- 0
- Resolve window
- 60 bars
Recent Butterfly Completions (20)
| Date | Direction | Entry | Return | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Bearish | 25,196.5 | -0.43% | Loss |
| Feb 15, 2024 | Bearish | 17,819 | -0.61% | Loss |
| Mar 28, 2023 | Bullish | 12,672.5 | +0.13% | Win |
| Jan 16, 2023 | Bearish | 11,599.5 | -0.39% | Loss |
| Apr 7, 2022 | Bullish | 14,443.75 | +0.56% | Win |
| Mar 28, 2022 | Bearish | 14,829.25 | +0.86% | Win |
| Aug 27, 2021 | Bearish | 15,398.75 | -0.33% | Loss |
| Sep 9, 2020 | Bullish | 11,260 | +0.09% | Win |
| Aug 21, 2020 | Bearish | 11,554.5 | -0.25% | Loss |
| Jul 23, 2019 | Bearish | 7,923.5 | -0.67% | Loss |
| Jul 9, 2019 | Bearish | 7,798 | -0.29% | Loss |
| Dec 26, 2018 | Bearish | 6,124.25 | -0.82% | Loss |
| Sep 2, 2015 | Bearish | 4,205 | -0.68% | Loss |
| Feb 17, 2015 | Bearish | 4,378.5 | +0.01% | Win |
| Sep 13, 2013 | Bullish | 3,171 | +0.20% | Win |
| Mar 13, 2013 | Bearish | 2,804.25 | +0.31% | Win |
| Jan 29, 2013 | Bullish | 2,728.75 | +0.25% | Win |
| Feb 9, 2011 | Bearish | 2,360 | +0.37% | Win |
| Aug 11, 2010 | Bullish | 1,853.5 | -0.76% | Loss |
| Oct 19, 2009 | Bearish | 1,753.75 | -0.37% | Loss |
Detection scan: NQ 15m · 2008-01-02 to 2026-04-24 · generated May 29, 2026
- B = 0.786 of XA
- C = 0.382-0.886 of AB
- D = 1.618-2.24 of BC
- D = 1.272-1.618 of XA
What this pattern measures
The Butterfly, credited to Bryce Gilmore and Larry Pesavento, is an extension pattern. Unlike the Gartley and Bat, which complete short of the origin, the Butterfly completes beyond it: D lands at a 1.272 to 1.618 extension of the X-to-A leg, so the completion marks a new high or low rather than a pullback inside a range.
This page measures what happened after each completed Butterfly, scored by the trade the structure implies: fade the new extreme, target a 0.618 retracement of the move, stop just beyond the completion.
Definitions used on this page:
- B retraces 0.786 of XA, C retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of AB, D projects 1.618 to 2.24 of BC, and D extends to 1.272 to 1.618 of XA.
- Pivots are confirmed swing highs and lows at balanced strictness: 3 bars on each side, with a 5% tolerance on every ratio. A pattern is counted only on the bar its final pivot confirms.
- The implied trade enters at the close of the confirming bar against the thrust, targets a 0.618 retracement of the structure, and stops just beyond D. It is given 60 bars to resolve before timing out.
- Outcomes are measured on CME:NQ at 15-minute and 5-minute bars.
Why it matters
The Butterfly is a bet on exhaustion at a fresh extreme. Price stretches past the prior origin into a measured extension, where the move is expected to run out of buyers or sellers and snap back. It is a counter-trend structure, so the entry fades the new extreme rather than joining it. That is also where it is dangerous: a Butterfly that keeps extending becomes a trend the trade is now positioned against, which makes the stop essential.
How to read the numbers
- Win rate is the share of decided trades, wins plus losses, that reached the target before the stop. Timeouts are excluded and reported on their own.
- Avg return is the mean outcome across every completed pattern, signed so positive favours the trade direction.
- Avg win and avg loss split the decided trades into their winning and losing sides.
- Bullish and bearish counts show which direction the structure completed in.
What’s not here
- No check that the new extreme is genuine exhaustion rather than the start of a breakout.
- No confluence with longer-term levels, which traders use to weight the completion zone.
- A single contract and two intraday timeframes.