Cypher

What this pattern measures

The Cypher, described by Darren Oglesbee, has a geometry of its own. The B point retraces part of XA, but then C pushes past A entirely, reaching 1.272 to 1.414 of the X-to-A leg. The completion at D is measured differently from the other patterns: it is a 0.786 retracement of the long X-to-C leg, not of XA or BC. That single change, measuring the completion against XC, is what makes the Cypher distinct.

This page measures what happened after each completed Cypher, scored by the trade the structure implies: enter at the reversal point, target a 0.618 retracement of the move, stop just beyond the completion.

Definitions used on this page:

• B retraces 0.382 to 0.618 of XA, C extends to 1.272 to 1.414 of XA, and D retraces 0.786 of the X-to-C leg.
• Pivots are confirmed swing highs and lows at balanced strictness: 3 bars on each side, with a 5% tolerance on every ratio. A pattern is counted only on the bar its final pivot confirms.
• The implied trade enters at the close of the confirming bar, targets a 0.618 retracement of the structure, and stops just beyond D. It is given 60 bars to resolve before timing out.
• Outcomes are measured on CME:NQ at 15-minute and 5-minute bars.

Why it matters

The Cypher captures a structure that makes a higher high, or lower low, at C before reversing. Price runs past the prior swing, traps the breakout traders, then retraces a deep 0.786 of the whole expanded move. D is read as the point where that trap resolves. It works when C is a genuine false breakout that fails and pulls back hard, and it fails when the push past A is a real breakout that simply trends away.

How to read the numbers

• Win rate is the share of decided trades, wins plus losses, that reached the target before the stop. Timeouts are excluded and reported on their own.
• Avg return is the mean outcome across every completed pattern, signed so positive favours the trade direction.
• Avg win and avg loss split the decided trades into their winning and losing sides.
• Bullish and bearish counts show which direction the structure completed in.

What’s not here

• No check that the push past A was a true trap rather than the start of a breakout.
• No confluence with longer-term levels at the completion.
• A single contract and two intraday timeframes.