Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Cypher
A distinct geometry where C pushes past A, then price retraces 0.786 of that whole move to complete at D.
- B = 0.382-0.618 of XA
- C = 1.272-1.414 of XA
- D = 0.786 of XC
- B = 0.382-0.618 of XA
- C = 1.272-1.414 of XA
- D = 0.786 of XC
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
45.9%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random long entry (+1.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.10×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.21R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 45.9% of the time vs 44.4% for a random long entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 220 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 45.9% | 44.4% | +1.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.9% | 22.6% | +3.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 16.4% | 12.5% | +3.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 41.4% | 45.9% | -4.5 |
| Went sideways | 12.7% | 9.7% | +3.0 |
220 occurrences · 136,704 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
46.7%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (+2.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.08×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.18R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 46.7% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry. The 2.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 244 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 46.7% | 44.6% | +2.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 24.6% | 24.2% | +0.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 13.5% | 14.1% | -0.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 47.5% | 47.6% | -0.1 |
| Went sideways | 5.7% | 7.8% | -2.0 |
244 occurrences · 136,054 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
Limited sample (44). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
40.9%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (-3.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.98×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.21R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 40.9% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 3.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 44 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 40.9% | 44.1% | -3.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 29.5% | 22.7% | +6.8 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 22.7% | 13.1% | +9.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 45.5% | 43.4% | +2.0 |
| Went sideways | 13.6% | 12.5% | +1.1 |
44 occurrences · 30,293 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
Limited sample (52). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
44.2%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random short entry (-0.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.09×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.15R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 44.2% of the time vs 44.3% for a random short entry. The 0.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 52 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 44.2% | 44.3% | -0.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 28.8% | 24.8% | +4.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 19.2% | 15.2% | +4.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 47.0% | +3.0 |
| Went sideways | 5.8% | 8.8% | -3.0 |
52 occurrences · 29,992 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
52.9%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (+8.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.95×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.51R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 52.9% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 8.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±23.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 17 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 17 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 52.9% | 44.1% | +8.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 35.3% | 24.7% | +10.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 29.4% | 15.7% | +13.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 47.1% | 42.7% | +4.4 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 13.2% | -13.2 |
17 occurrences · 10,656 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
75.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.0% for a random short entry (+32.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.12×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.57R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random short entry.
Summary
The 32.0-point gap over the 43.0% random-entry rate clears the ±28.0-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 12 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 75.0% | 43.0% | +32.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.0% | 25.9% | -0.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 25.0% | 17.0% | +8.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 16.7% | 47.1% | -30.4 |
| Went sideways | 8.3% | 9.9% | -1.5 |
12 occurrences · 10,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
40.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (-4.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.88×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.19R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 4.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±30.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 10 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 40.0% | 44.5% | -4.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 20.0% | 24.1% | -4.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 14.6% | -14.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 43.5% | +6.5 |
| Went sideways | 10.0% | 12.0% | -2.0 |
10 occurrences · 5,466 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
16.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random short entry (-27.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.88×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.91R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 16.7% of the time vs 44.0% for a random short entry. The 27.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±39.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 6 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 16.7% | 44.0% | -27.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 16.7% | 26.3% | -9.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 16.7% | 17.3% | -0.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 66.7% | 47.6% | +19.0 |
| Went sideways | 16.7% | 8.4% | +8.3 |
6 occurrences · 5,325 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 48.1% for a random long entry (+1.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.98×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.47R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.24R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 48.1% for a random long entry. The 1.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±49.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 48.1% | +1.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 50.0% | 27.8% | +22.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 25.0% | 15.9% | +9.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 42.8% | +7.2 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 9.1% | -9.1 |
4 occurrences · 2,616 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
25.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (-18.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.00×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.60R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 25.0% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry. The 18.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±48.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 25.0% | 43.8% | -18.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 26.7% | -26.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 17.2% | -17.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 50.6% | -0.6 |
| Went sideways | 25.0% | 5.6% | +19.4 |
4 occurrences · 2,611 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
100.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.1% for a random short entry (+59.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.85×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.65R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 40.1% for a random short entry. The 59.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±67.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 100.0% | 40.1% | +59.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 24.9% | -24.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 16.2% | -16.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 0.0% | 56.6% | -56.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.2% | -3.2 |
2 occurrences · 401 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
100.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 49.2% for a random long entry (+50.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.16×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.93R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 49.2% for a random long entry. The 50.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±98.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 100.0% | 49.2% | +50.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 23.9% | -23.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 11.8% | -11.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 0.0% | 39.4% | -39.4 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 11.4% | -11.4 |
1 occurrences · 439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
100.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.9% for a random short entry (+59.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.88×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.48R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 40.9% for a random short entry. The 59.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 100.0% | 40.9% | +59.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 23.6% | -23.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 14.4% | -14.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 0.0% | 55.8% | -55.8 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.2% | -3.2 |
1 occurrences · 403 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
39.2%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (-5.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.23×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.04R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 39.2% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 5.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 148 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 39.2% | 44.3% | -5.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 19.6% | 21.6% | -2.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 13.5% | 11.6% | +1.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 53.4% | 45.7% | +7.6 |
| Went sideways | 7.4% | 10.0% | -2.6 |
148 occurrences · 100,574 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
46.2%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random short entry (+1.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.23×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.05R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 46.2% of the time vs 44.4% for a random short entry. The 1.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 132 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 46.2% | 44.4% | +1.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 21.2% | 23.0% | -1.8 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 9.1% | 13.0% | -3.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 47.0% | 47.3% | -0.4 |
| Went sideways | 6.8% | 8.2% | -1.4 |
132 occurrences · 99,273 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
57.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (+13.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.23×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.41R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 57.7% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 13.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±19.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 26 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 26 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 57.7% | 44.3% | +13.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 30.8% | 22.4% | +8.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 26.9% | 12.5% | +14.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 38.5% | 43.3% | -4.9 |
| Went sideways | 3.8% | 12.4% | -8.6 |
26 occurrences · 26,201 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
Limited sample (36). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
47.2%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.2% for a random short entry (+3.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.30×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.23R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 47.2% of the time vs 44.2% for a random short entry. The 3.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 36 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 47.2% | 44.2% | +3.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.0% | 23.9% | +1.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 16.7% | 14.4% | +2.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 38.9% | 46.8% | -7.9 |
| Went sideways | 13.9% | 9.0% | +4.8 |
36 occurrences · 25,439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
36.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (-8.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.77×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.93R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 36.4% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 8.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 36.4% | 44.5% | -8.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 18.2% | 24.7% | -6.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 15.0% | -15.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 45.5% | 42.4% | +3.0 |
| Went sideways | 18.2% | 13.1% | +5.1 |
11 occurrences · 9,935 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
42.1%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-1.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.14×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.14R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 42.1% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 1.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±22.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 19 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 19 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 42.1% | 43.3% | -1.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 26.3% | 25.5% | +0.8 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 15.8% | 16.4% | -0.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 36.8% | 46.3% | -9.5 |
| Went sideways | 21.1% | 10.4% | +10.7 |
19 occurrences · 9,497 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
25.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (-19.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.19×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.90R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 25.0% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 19.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±48.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 25.0% | 44.3% | -19.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.0% | 23.3% | +1.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 25.0% | 14.2% | +10.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 75.0% | 43.7% | +31.3 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 12.0% | -12.0 |
4 occurrences · 5,306 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
27.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (-17.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.09×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.89R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 27.3% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 17.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 27.3% | 45.2% | -17.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 18.2% | 26.5% | -8.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 9.1% | 16.9% | -7.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 63.6% | 46.6% | +17.0 |
| Went sideways | 9.1% | 8.2% | +0.9 |
11 occurrences · 5,060 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
100.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (+53.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.86×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.38R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 53.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 100.0% | 46.6% | +53.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 26.0% | -26.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 15.2% | -15.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 0.0% | 44.2% | -44.2 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 9.1% | -9.1 |
1 occurrences · 2,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (+4.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.51×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.54R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.21R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 4.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±69.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 45.2% | +4.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 50.0% | 28.0% | +22.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 19.0% | -19.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 49.7% | +0.3 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 5.1% | -5.1 |
2 occurrences · 2,539 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.2% for a random short entry (-41.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.67×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 41.2% for a random short entry. The 41.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 41.2% | -41.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 23.8% | -23.8 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 16.4% | -16.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 55.6% | +44.4 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.2% | -3.2 |
1 occurrences · 408 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random short entry (-42.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.64×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.04R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 42.6% for a random short entry. The 42.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 42.6% | -42.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 25.7% | -25.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 16.6% | -16.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 53.9% | +46.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.5% | -3.5 |
1 occurrences · 397 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
43.7%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.9% for a random long entry (+0.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.04×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.07R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 43.7% of the time vs 42.9% for a random long entry. The 0.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 597 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 43.7% | 42.9% | +0.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 21.1% | 22.4% | -1.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 10.2% | 12.8% | -2.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 45.6% | 46.3% | -0.7 |
| Went sideways | 10.7% | 10.9% | -0.1 |
597 occurrences · 393,642 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
47.6%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (+4.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.08×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.20R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 47.6% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 4.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 584 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 47.6% | 43.6% | +4.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 27.6% | 23.3% | +4.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 16.6% | 13.5% | +3.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 43.2% | 46.4% | -3.2 |
| Went sideways | 9.2% | 10.0% | -0.8 |
584 occurrences · 391,020 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
36.3%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (-7.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.05×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.96R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 36.3% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 7.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 171 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 36.3% | 43.3% | -7.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 18.1% | 22.8% | -4.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 9.4% | 13.0% | -3.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.9% | 45.4% | +5.5 |
| Went sideways | 12.9% | 11.3% | +1.6 |
171 occurrences · 98,903 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
48.8%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random short entry (+4.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.98×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.25R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 48.8% of the time vs 44.1% for a random short entry. The 4.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 172 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 48.8% | 44.1% | +4.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 29.1% | 23.8% | +5.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 15.1% | 14.0% | +1.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 41.3% | 45.9% | -4.6 |
| Went sideways | 9.9% | 10.0% | -0.1 |
172 occurrences · 97,699 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
Limited sample (52). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
44.2%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+0.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.03×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.98R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 44.2% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 0.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 52 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 44.2% | 43.3% | +0.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 19.2% | 23.2% | -4.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 7.7% | 13.8% | -6.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 46.2% | 44.7% | +1.4 |
| Went sideways | 9.6% | 11.9% | -2.3 |
52 occurrences · 36,235 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
Limited sample (72). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
45.8%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random short entry (+1.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.02×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.22R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 45.8% of the time vs 43.9% for a random short entry. The 1.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±11.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 72 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 45.8% | 43.9% | +1.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 27.8% | 24.3% | +3.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 15.3% | 14.8% | +0.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 37.5% | 45.4% | -7.9 |
| Went sideways | 16.7% | 10.7% | +6.0 |
72 occurrences · 35,963 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
Limited sample (32). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
46.9%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random long entry (+4.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.97×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.12R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 46.9% of the time vs 42.6% for a random long entry. The 4.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±17.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 32 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 46.9% | 42.6% | +4.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 21.9% | 23.5% | -1.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 15.6% | 14.0% | +1.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 43.8% | 44.1% | -0.4 |
| Went sideways | 9.4% | 13.2% | -3.9 |
32 occurrences · 18,830 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
Limited sample (39). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
33.3%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (-10.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.91×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.91R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 10.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±15.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 39 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 33.3% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 15.4% | 24.3% | -8.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 10.3% | 15.2% | -4.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 48.7% | 45.1% | +3.6 |
| Went sideways | 17.9% | 11.3% | +6.6 |
39 occurrences · 18,516 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
38.1%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (-6.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.93×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.96R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 38.1% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 6.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±21.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 21 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 21 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 38.1% | 44.6% | -6.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 19.0% | 24.5% | -5.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 4.8% | 14.8% | -10.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 61.9% | 44.9% | +17.0 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 10.5% | -10.5 |
21 occurrences · 9,536 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
39.1%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random short entry (-5.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.10×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.24R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 39.1% of the time vs 44.5% for a random short entry. The 5.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±20.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 23 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 23 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 39.1% | 44.5% | -5.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 26.1% | 25.7% | +0.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 13.0% | 15.7% | -2.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 47.8% | 46.5% | +1.4 |
| Went sideways | 13.0% | 9.0% | +4.0 |
23 occurrences · 9,392 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (+3.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.64×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.43R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 3.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±69.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 46.6% | +3.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 50.0% | 26.1% | +23.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 16.1% | -16.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 44.5% | +5.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 8.9% | -8.9 |
2 occurrences · 2,338 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.5% for a random short entry (-46.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.76×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.11R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 46.5% for a random short entry. The 46.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 46.5% | -46.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 26.5% | -26.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 15.8% | -15.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 46.9% | +53.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 6.5% | -6.5 |
3 occurrences · 2,207 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.4% for a random short entry (-39.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.82×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.40R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 39.4% for a random short entry. The 39.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±67.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 39.4% | -39.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 21.9% | -21.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 12.7% | -12.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 50.7% | +49.3 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 9.9% | -9.9 |
2 occurrences · 424 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
44.8%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+1.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.09×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.13R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 44.8% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 495 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 44.8% | 43.3% | +1.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.5% | 22.9% | +2.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 13.9% | 13.2% | +0.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 47.1% | 46.4% | +0.6 |
| Went sideways | 8.1% | 10.2% | -2.2 |
495 occurrences · 371,185 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
42.7%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random short entry (-0.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.28×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.05R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 42.7% of the time vs 43.5% for a random short entry. The 0.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 534 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 42.7% | 43.5% | -0.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 22.3% | 23.3% | -1.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 12.2% | 13.5% | -1.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 47.6% | 46.5% | +1.0 |
| Went sideways | 9.7% | 9.9% | -0.2 |
534 occurrences · 369,441 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
40.6%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random long entry (-3.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.98×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 40.6% of the time vs 43.9% for a random long entry. The 3.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 133 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 40.6% | 43.9% | -3.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 19.5% | 23.5% | -3.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 10.5% | 13.6% | -3.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 47.4% | 45.1% | +2.2 |
| Went sideways | 12.0% | 11.0% | +1.1 |
133 occurrences · 92,926 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
40.8%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (-3.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.11×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.10R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 40.8% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 3.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 157 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 40.8% | 43.7% | -3.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 21.7% | 23.8% | -2.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 13.4% | 14.0% | -0.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 45.2% | 45.8% | -0.5 |
| Went sideways | 14.0% | 10.5% | +3.5 |
157 occurrences · 92,675 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
Limited sample (49). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
40.8%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (-2.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.06×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.99R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 40.8% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry. The 2.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 49 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 40.8% | 43.4% | -2.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 20.4% | 23.4% | -3.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 12.2% | 13.8% | -1.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 55.1% | 44.4% | +10.7 |
| Went sideways | 4.1% | 12.2% | -8.1 |
49 occurrences · 34,385 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
Limited sample (51). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
47.1%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (+3.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.24×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.14R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 47.1% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry. The 3.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 51 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 47.1% | 43.8% | +3.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 19.6% | 24.3% | -4.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 11.8% | 14.4% | -2.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 41.2% | 45.2% | -4.0 |
| Went sideways | 11.8% | 11.0% | +0.8 |
51 occurrences · 33,999 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
45.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random long entry (+2.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.81×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.03R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 45.5% of the time vs 43.1% for a random long entry. The 2.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±20.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 22 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 22 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 45.5% | 43.1% | +2.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 18.2% | 23.2% | -5.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 9.1% | 14.1% | -5.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.9% | 43.3% | -2.4 |
| Went sideways | 13.6% | 13.7% | -0.0 |
22 occurrences · 17,693 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+6.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.73×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.12R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 6.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±21.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 20 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 20 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 43.3% | +6.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 30.0% | 24.4% | +5.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 10.0% | 15.3% | -5.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.0% | 44.4% | -4.4 |
| Went sideways | 10.0% | 12.3% | -2.3 |
20 occurrences · 17,912 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
33.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random long entry (-10.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.84×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.09R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 43.5% for a random long entry. The 10.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±25.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 15 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 15 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 33.3% | 43.5% | -10.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 20.0% | 23.4% | -3.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 20.0% | 14.1% | +5.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 53.3% | 45.5% | +7.8 |
| Went sideways | 13.3% | 11.0% | +2.4 |
15 occurrences · 9,070 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
40.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.9% for a random short entry (-4.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.95×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.16R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 44.9% for a random short entry. The 4.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±25.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 15 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 15 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 40.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 26.7% | 25.5% | +1.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 13.3% | 15.8% | -2.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 53.3% | 45.6% | +7.7 |
| Went sideways | 6.7% | 9.5% | -2.8 |
15 occurrences · 9,047 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
33.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random long entry (-10.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.94×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.20R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 43.8% for a random long entry. The 10.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 33.3% | 43.8% | -10.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 33.3% | 23.4% | +10.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 33.3% | 11.5% | +21.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 66.7% | 48.7% | +18.0 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 7.5% | -7.5 |
3 occurrences · 2,394 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
57.1%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (+12.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.82×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.20R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 57.1% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry. The 12.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 7 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 57.1% | 44.6% | +12.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 28.6% | 25.5% | +3.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 14.3% | 15.0% | -0.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 42.9% | 48.6% | -5.7 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 6.8% | -6.8 |
7 occurrences · 2,319 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
100.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.1% for a random long entry (+52.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.30×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
3.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 47.1% for a random long entry. The 52.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 100.0% | 47.1% | +52.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 100.0% | 23.8% | +76.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 100.0% | 14.9% | +85.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 0.0% | 43.0% | -43.0 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 10.0% | -10.0 |
1 occurrences · 442 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.8% for a random short entry (-40.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.56×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.25R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 40.8% for a random short entry. The 40.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±68.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 40.8% | -40.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 20.4% | -20.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 13.1% | -13.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 49.5% | +50.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 9.7% | -9.7 |
2 occurrences · 412 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
40.5%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.5% for a random long entry (-2.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.14×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.02R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 40.5% of the time vs 42.5% for a random long entry. The 2.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 341 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 40.5% | 42.5% | -2.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 22.3% | 23.0% | -0.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 11.7% | 13.6% | -1.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.7% | 46.8% | +3.9 |
| Went sideways | 8.8% | 10.7% | -1.9 |
341 occurrences · 276,772 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
43.0%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random short entry (+0.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.16×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.04R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 43.0% of the time vs 42.4% for a random short entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 372 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 43.0% | 42.4% | +0.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 21.0% | 23.1% | -2.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 11.0% | 13.7% | -2.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 44.9% | 47.0% | -2.1 |
| Went sideways | 12.1% | 10.7% | +1.4 |
372 occurrences · 276,314 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
Limited sample (90). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
42.2%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (-1.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.19×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.10R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 42.2% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry. The 1.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±10.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 90 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 42.2% | 43.4% | -1.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.6% | 23.4% | +2.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 12.2% | 13.9% | -1.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 48.9% | 45.5% | +3.4 |
| Went sideways | 8.9% | 11.1% | -2.2 |
90 occurrences · 69,030 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
48.1%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (+4.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.13×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.25R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 48.1% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 4.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 108 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 48.1% | 43.6% | +4.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 27.8% | 23.6% | +4.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 15.7% | 14.0% | +1.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 39.8% | 45.2% | -5.4 |
| Went sideways | 12.0% | 11.3% | +0.8 |
108 occurrences · 68,562 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
Limited sample (38). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
42.1%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.8% for a random long entry (-0.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.99×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.06R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 42.1% of the time vs 42.8% for a random long entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±15.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 38 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 42.1% | 42.8% | -0.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 18.4% | 23.8% | -5.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 10.5% | 14.6% | -4.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 47.4% | 45.4% | +2.0 |
| Went sideways | 10.5% | 11.9% | -1.3 |
38 occurrences · 25,869 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
Limited sample (35). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
51.4%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (+7.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.15×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.21R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 51.4% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 7.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 35 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 51.4% | 43.7% | +7.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 22.9% | 23.7% | -0.8 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 11.4% | 14.2% | -2.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.0% | 44.5% | -4.5 |
| Went sideways | 8.6% | 11.8% | -3.2 |
35 occurrences · 25,622 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
52.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random long entry (+10.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.92×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.33R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 52.4% of the time vs 42.4% for a random long entry. The 10.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±21.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 21 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 21 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 52.4% | 42.4% | +10.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 33.3% | 24.0% | +9.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 19.0% | 15.2% | +3.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 42.9% | 45.4% | -2.5 |
| Went sideways | 4.8% | 12.3% | -7.5 |
21 occurrences · 13,514 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
35.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-8.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.02×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.10R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 35.3% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 8.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±23.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 17 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 17 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 35.3% | 43.3% | -8.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 29.4% | 24.2% | +5.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 23.5% | 15.2% | +8.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 41.2% | 44.1% | -2.9 |
| Went sideways | 23.5% | 12.6% | +10.9 |
17 occurrences · 13,523 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
16.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random long entry (-27.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.83×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.73R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 16.7% of the time vs 44.0% for a random long entry. The 27.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±28.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 12 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 12 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 16.7% | 44.0% | -27.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 8.3% | 24.4% | -16.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 8.3% | 15.0% | -6.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 75.0% | 46.4% | +28.6 |
| Went sideways | 8.3% | 9.6% | -1.2 |
12 occurrences · 6,841 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
21.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-21.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.13×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.79R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 21.4% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 21.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±26.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 14 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 14 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 21.4% | 43.3% | -21.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 7.1% | 25.0% | -17.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 7.1% | 14.7% | -7.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 71.4% | 46.5% | +24.9 |
| Went sideways | 7.1% | 10.1% | -3.0 |
14 occurrences · 6,967 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
66.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.1% for a random long entry (+20.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.58×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.06R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 66.7% of the time vs 46.1% for a random long entry. The 20.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 66.7% | 46.1% | +20.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 27.3% | -27.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 15.5% | -15.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 33.3% | 47.0% | -13.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 6.9% | -6.9 |
3 occurrences · 1,688 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-43.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.75×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.20R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 43.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 43.3% | -43.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 22.3% | -22.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 12.5% | -12.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 48.0% | +52.0 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 8.7% | -8.7 |
3 occurrences · 1,722 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bullish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 53.3% for a random long entry (-53.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
2.55×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.82R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.32R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 53.3% for a random long entry. The 53.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 53.3% | -53.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 29.5% | -29.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 16.5% | -16.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 39.8% | +60.3 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 7.0% | -7.0 |
1 occurrences · 400 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Bearish Cypher
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random short entry (-43.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.84×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 43.1% for a random short entry. The 43.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 43.1% | -43.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 19.0% | -19.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 11.8% | -11.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 46.5% | +53.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 10.4% | -10.4 |
1 occurrences · 415 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
The Cypher, described by Darren Oglesbee, has a geometry of its own. It is a five-point structure, X to A to B to C to D, where C pushes past A instead of staying inside the move. The signature is the completion: D sits at a 0.786 retracement of the long X-to-C leg, not of XA or BC, and that single change is what makes the Cypher distinct.
How to spot it
- A clear X-to-A move, then B pulls back against it, retracing 0.382 to 0.618 of XA.
- C does not stop at A, it extends past it to 1.272 to 1.414 of the XA leg, making a higher high or lower low.
- D retraces 0.786 of the whole X-to-C leg. All three ratios hold at once.
- The structure completes at D, a swing low in an uptrend (a buy) or a swing high in a downtrend (a sell).
The chart above marks the X, A, B, C, D points on a real occurrence, with the ratio of each leg.
Why it matters
The Cypher forms when price runs past a prior swing at C, makes a higher high or lower low, then reverses. The push past A traps the traders who chased the breakout, and the deep 0.786 pullback into D is read as the point where that trap resolves and the move turns back. Because C extends beyond A, the structure measures its completion against an expanded X-to-C leg, but D itself still lands inside that long leg, so the entry is a retracement of the move rather than a fresh extension beyond it.
The Cypher works when C is a genuine false breakout that fails and pulls back hard. It fails when the push past A is a real breakout that simply trends away, in which case the 0.786 retracement never completes. The deep completion gives the reversal room to develop and keeps the stop just beyond D.
The honest question is not whether the shape can be drawn on a chart, it always can after the fact, but whether a completion actually leads anywhere. That is what the data below measures.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the question is not “did it win” but “how much room did the move offer before the structure was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.
For each completion we measure the room price offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random swing pivot of the same kind would have done. A Cypher that turns up from a swing low is judged against ordinary swing lows; one that turns down from a swing high, against ordinary swing highs. When the completion offers more room more often than those random swings, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.
Harmonic structures are rare, so read the sample size in view. On the slower timeframes a Cypher completes only single digits of times, or not at all, while the faster timeframes give a larger sample. Thin samples are flagged for you.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the bar that confirms the D point, the earliest a trader could act without hindsight.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close to D itself, the swing extreme the structure completes at. A move back through D says the pattern has failed.
- We follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before D gave way.
- The comparison is a random swing pivot of the same side, which already sits at a turning point with a tight stop. That keeps it apples-to-apples: the question is whether a Cypher swing runs further than an ordinary swing of the same shape, not whether a tight stop flatters the numbers.
What this page does not cover
- A profit target. Harmonic tradition puts one at a Fibonacci retracement, but where you take profit is a strategy choice, so this measures only the room the structure tends to offer.
- A trend filter, or confluence with support, resistance, or a higher-timeframe level, which traders normally use to weight a completion.
- A guarantee. A valid shape on the chart is a setup, not a certainty. What it tends to do next is exactly what the numbers above describe.
FAQ
Do harmonic patterns like the Cypher actually work?
Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed Cypher by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.
What is the Cypher pattern, and how is it defined here?
The Cypher is a five-point XABCD structure where B retraces 0.382 to 0.618 of XA, C extends past A to 1.272 to 1.414 of XA, and D completes at 0.786 of the long X-to-C leg. Measuring the completion against XC, rather than XA or BC, is what sets it apart from the other harmonics. All three ratios hold at once within a 5% tolerance, pivots use 3 bars on each side, and they are confirmed before they count.
What is the Cypher pattern success rate?
There is no single reliable figure, and the round numbers quoted online rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or test period. Rather than repeat folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape. The tabs show that comparison across five markets and seven timeframes, so you can read the room offered against chance instead of a quoted percentage.
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | Bearish | 18.5 | 0.82R | Stopped |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Bearish | 10.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Bearish | 21.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Bullish | 7 | 0.11R | Stopped |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Bearish | 13.5 | 0.94R | Stopped |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Bearish | 5 | 2.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Bullish | 7.25 | 0.90R | Stopped |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Bearish | 33.25 | 0.59R | Stopped |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Bullish | 18 | 0.19R | Stopped |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Bullish | 9.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Bearish | 20.25 | 2.84R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Bullish | 11.5 | 1.02R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 30, 2025 | Bullish | 15.5 | 1.42R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 23, 2025 | Bearish | 10.5 | 1.98R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Bearish | 18 | 0.79R | Flat |
| May 7, 2025 | Bullish | 32 | 0.02R | Stopped |
| May 5, 2025 | Bullish | 5.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Bearish | 51.25 | 0.25R | Stopped |
| Mar 28, 2025 | Bearish | 8 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 18, 2025 | Bullish | 32.5 | 0.73R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2025 | Bullish | 40 | 0.66R | Stopped |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Bearish | 14.25 | 0.04R | Stopped |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Bullish | 31.5 | 0.52R | Stopped |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Bullish | 18.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 2, 2024 | Bearish | 64 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 10, 2024 | Bullish | 7.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 22, 2024 | Bearish | 54.25 | 0.01R | Stopped |
| Apr 17, 2024 | Bullish | 5.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 8, 2024 | Bearish | 20 | 0.57R | Stopped |
| Feb 1, 2024 | Bullish | 15.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 15, 2024 | Bearish | 21.5 | 1.03R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 2, 2023 | Bullish | 40 | 0.19R | Stopped |
| Aug 1, 2023 | Bearish | 22.25 | 1.63R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 6, 2023 | Bearish | 54.75 | 0.92R | Flat |
| May 6, 2022 | Bullish | 30.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 4, 2022 | Bullish | 14.5 | 1.60R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 2, 2021 | Bullish | 22.5 | 1.34R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 23, 2021 | Bearish | 29 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 15, 2020 | Bearish | 11 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 17, 2020 | Bearish | 8.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (19)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | Bullish | 92.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Bullish | 29.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 3, 2023 | Bullish | 31.25 | 0.94R | Stopped |
| Apr 17, 2023 | Bearish | 53 | 1.44R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 28, 2022 | Bearish | 116.25 | 1.18R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 1, 2021 | Bearish | 19.5 | 1.26R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 18, 2018 | Bullish | 56.5 | 1.45R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 12, 2018 | Bearish | 32.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 16, 2018 | Bearish | 6.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 27, 2017 | Bullish | 4 | 0.63R | Stopped |
| Apr 17, 2017 | Bearish | 6.5 | 0.92R | Stopped |
| Sep 14, 2015 | Bullish | 6.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 20, 2015 | Bullish | 22.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 7, 2013 | Bearish | 4.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 28, 2012 | Bullish | 2.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 8, 2011 | Bullish | 4 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 7, 2010 | Bullish | 6.5 | 0.38R | Stopped |
| Mar 11, 2010 | Bullish | 3.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 9, 2009 | Bearish | 3 | 0.50R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (9)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2025 | Bullish | 127 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 5, 2023 | Bullish | 104.5 | 0.83R | Stopped |
| Nov 18, 2022 | Bullish | 36.5 | 2.68R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 30, 2021 | Bearish | 23.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 21, 2021 | Bearish | 33.5 | 0.16R | Stopped |
| Oct 12, 2018 | Bearish | 71 | 0.97R | Stopped |
| Apr 16, 2018 | Bearish | 23.75 | 0.28R | Stopped |
| Dec 28, 2017 | Bullish | 7.75 | 0.90R | Stopped |
| Apr 20, 2010 | Bearish | 3.25 | 0.85R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (6)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2015 | Bullish | 12.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 13, 2012 | Bullish | 9.75 | 0.64R | Stopped |
| Jun 7, 2010 | Bullish | 6 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 22, 2009 | Bullish | 12.25 | 2.24R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 13, 2008 | Bearish | 18.75 | 0.49R | Stopped |
| Jan 25, 2008 | Bearish | 60 | 0.56R | Flat |
Sample Cypher Completions (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2014 | 44.25 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Bullish | 2.5 | 0.90R | Stopped |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Bullish | 9 | 1.42R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Bullish | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Bullish | 3 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Bullish | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Bullish | 3.5 | 0.14R | Stopped |
| Aug 21, 2025 | Bearish | 5.75 | 0.57R | Stopped |
| May 16, 2025 | Bearish | 2.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 15, 2025 | Bearish | 5 | 0.40R | Stopped |
| Apr 14, 2025 | Bearish | 5.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Bearish | 7.25 | 0.62R | Stopped |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Bullish | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Bearish | 2.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Bearish | 1 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Bearish | 1.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Bullish | 1.75 | 0.71R | Stopped |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Bullish | 5 | 1.05R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Bearish | 2.25 | 0.11R | Stopped |
| Aug 5, 2024 | Bearish | 2.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 15, 2024 | Bullish | 1.5 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | Bearish | 2.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Bearish | 2.75 | 1.55R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Bearish | 6 | 0.75R | Stopped |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Bullish | 7 | 0.75R | Stopped |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Bullish | 3.5 | 0.43R | Stopped |
| May 14, 2025 | Bearish | 4.75 | 0.47R | Stopped |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Bearish | 18.75 | 1.92R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 4, 2024 | Bearish | 6.25 | 1.04R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 15, 2024 | Bearish | 2.75 | 0.64R | Stopped |
| Nov 15, 2023 | Bearish | 4.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 6, 2023 | Bearish | 4.75 | 1.16R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 5, 2023 | Bullish | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 14, 2021 | Bearish | 2.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 7, 2020 | Bearish | 3.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 21, 2020 | Bearish | 2.5 | 0.80R | Stopped |
| Jul 17, 2020 | Bullish | 8 | 1.47R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 29, 2020 | Bearish | 6.5 | 1.38R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 18, 2020 | Bearish | 38.5 | 0.51R | Stopped |
| Mar 3, 2020 | Bullish | 32.75 | 0.76R | Stopped |
| Sep 13, 2019 | Bullish | 1.5 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (18)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | Bullish | 15 | 0.52R | Stopped |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Bearish | 15.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Bullish | 21.5 | 1.44R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 21, 2022 | Bearish | 14.5 | 0.19R | Stopped |
| Sep 15, 2021 | Bearish | 5 | 0.60R | Stopped |
| Aug 28, 2019 | Bearish | 6.5 | 0.27R | Stopped |
| Feb 23, 2018 | Bearish | 9 | 0.11R | Stopped |
| Apr 27, 2017 | Bearish | 2.75 | 2.45R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 7, 2016 | Bearish | 1.25 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 7, 2015 | Bearish | 4.25 | 0.82R | Stopped |
| Jan 9, 2014 | Bullish | 4 | 2.63R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 6, 2013 | Bearish | 3 | 1.17R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 25, 2012 | Bullish | 1.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 15, 2012 | Bearish | 1.25 | 1.60R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 20, 2011 | Bearish | 4.75 | 0.21R | Stopped |
| May 26, 2011 | Bullish | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 1, 2010 | Bullish | 2.5 | 2.80R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 6, 2008 | Bearish | 5.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (12)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | Bullish | 11.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Bearish | 18.75 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Bullish | 6.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 12, 2024 | Bearish | 21.75 | 0.38R | Stopped |
| Apr 19, 2023 | Bearish | 9 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 21, 2022 | Bearish | 8 | 1.16R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 24, 2022 | Bearish | 8 | 0.94R | Stopped |
| Aug 28, 2019 | Bearish | 4 | 0.38R | Stopped |
| Sep 30, 2014 | Bullish | 7.25 | 0.34R | Stopped |
| Mar 22, 2013 | Bearish | 4.75 | 0.05R | Stopped |
| Jan 9, 2013 | Bearish | 2.25 | 2.11R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 8, 2008 | Bearish | 3 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2013 | 4 | 0.75R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2019 | 22.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2019 | 18.75 | 0.04R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Bullish | 4.1 | 0.32R | Flat |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Bullish | 1.1 | 0.64R | Stopped |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Bearish | 1.7 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Bullish | 6.8 | 0.32R | Stopped |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Bearish | 2 | 0.40R | Stopped |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Bullish | 3.5 | 0.34R | Stopped |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Bearish | 1.7 | 0.76R | Stopped |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Bearish | 3.1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Bearish | 7.9 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Bearish | 5.2 | 1.29R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Bullish | 1.9 | 0.58R | Stopped |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Bullish | 4.5 | 0.42R | Stopped |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Bullish | 3.8 | 0.63R | Stopped |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Bearish | 4.1 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Bullish | 1.8 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Bullish | 2.4 | 0.96R | Stopped |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Bullish | 1.3 | 2.23R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Bullish | 4.8 | 0.10R | Flat |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Bearish | 1.6 | 1.81R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Bearish | 7.3 | 0.19R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Bearish | 3.7 | 1.35R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Bearish | 8.3 | 2.46R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Bullish | 4.4 | 0.41R | Stopped |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Bullish | 4.2 | 0.17R | Stopped |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Bullish | 17.8 | 0.99R | Stopped |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Bearish | 4 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Bullish | 0.6 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Bearish | 1.1 | 1.18R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Bearish | 6.6 | 1.58R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Bearish | 10.9 | 2.09R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Bullish | 3.7 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Bearish | 1 | 2.60R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Bullish | 1.2 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Bearish | 1.3 | 2.92R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 19, 2025 | Bullish | 4.8 | 0.08R | Stopped |
| May 14, 2025 | Bearish | 5.2 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 12, 2025 | Bullish | 9.7 | 1.21R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Bearish | 1.8 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 5, 2025 | Bullish | 8.7 | 0.25R | Flat |
| Dec 16, 2024 | Bearish | 1.4 | 0.14R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | Bullish | 13.2 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Bearish | 21.4 | 0.26R | Stopped |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Bullish | 3.9 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 9, 2025 | Bearish | 0.6 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Bearish | 2.4 | 1.87R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Bearish | 1.9 | 2.95R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 21, 2025 | Bearish | 3.8 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Bearish | 3.3 | 0.15R | Stopped |
| Nov 26, 2024 | Bearish | 3.6 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 13, 2024 | Bearish | 1.3 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Bullish | 4.7 | 1.23R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Bearish | 4.3 | 0.02R | Stopped |
| Jul 5, 2024 | Bullish | 2.2 | 2.09R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 15, 2024 | Bearish | 1.6 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 22, 2023 | Bullish | 3.4 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 10, 2023 | Bearish | 2.3 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 12, 2022 | Bullish | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 25, 2022 | Bullish | 2.1 | 0.90R | Stopped |
| Jan 12, 2022 | Bearish | 1.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 2, 2021 | Bearish | 0.6 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | Bearish | 12 | 1.25R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Bearish | 7.5 | 0.77R | Stopped |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Bullish | 7.9 | 1.99R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 10, 2025 | Bullish | 5.6 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 28, 2025 | Bullish | 5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Bearish | 2.8 | 0.57R | Stopped |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Bearish | 2.4 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 24, 2023 | Bearish | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 25, 2023 | Bearish | 2.1 | 0.52R | Stopped |
| Jan 23, 2023 | Bearish | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 28, 2022 | Bearish | 3 | 2.63R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 27, 2021 | Bullish | 4.4 | 2.09R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 30, 2021 | Bearish | 4.2 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 28, 2021 | Bearish | 2.8 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 20, 2020 | Bearish | 4.3 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 27, 2019 | Bearish | 3.9 | 2.15R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 30, 2019 | Bullish | 2.2 | 1.23R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 17, 2018 | Bearish | 1.1 | 1.91R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 9, 2018 | Bearish | 2.7 | 0.26R | Stopped |
| Aug 8, 2018 | Bearish | 0.8 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | Bearish | 26.4 | 0.58R | Stopped |
| Jun 10, 2025 | Bullish | 16.1 | 2.05R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 26, 2023 | Bullish | 2.7 | 0.59R | Stopped |
| Jun 20, 2023 | Bearish | 4.7 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 11, 2023 | Bearish | 6.1 | 0.93R | Stopped |
| Dec 12, 2022 | Bullish | 5.4 | 0.98R | Stopped |
| Nov 23, 2022 | Bullish | 4.2 | 0.21R | Stopped |
| Nov 19, 2021 | Bearish | 2.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 26, 2019 | Bearish | 1.2 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 9, 2019 | Bullish | 2.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 7, 2019 | Bearish | 1.8 | 1.72R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 16, 2018 | Bullish | 3.1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 28, 2017 | Bullish | 1.8 | 1.78R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 30, 2017 | Bearish | 2 | 2.95R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 30, 2016 | Bullish | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 13, 2016 | Bullish | 3.6 | 2.72R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 22, 2015 | Bullish | 1.7 | 1.59R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 27, 2015 | Bearish | 4.6 | 0.07R | Stopped |
| Oct 2, 2014 | Bullish | 5.9 | 0.76R | Stopped |
| Apr 29, 2014 | Bearish | 4.6 | 2.72R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2017 | 4.7 | 0.09R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Bearish | 0.18 | 1.94R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Bearish | 0.01 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Bearish | 0.1 | 1.10R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Bearish | 0.11 | 0.18R | Stopped |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Bullish | 0.24 | 2.08R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Bearish | 0.25 | 0.12R | Stopped |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Bullish | 0.08 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Bearish | 0.03 | 2.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Bearish | 0.17 | 2.35R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Bullish | 0.07 | 1.57R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Bearish | 0.12 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Bearish | 0.02 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Bullish | 0.07 | 1.43R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Bullish | 0.01 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Bearish | 0.06 | 0.83R | Stopped |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Bullish | 0.06 | 2.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Bearish | 0.01 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Bearish | 0.09 | 1.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Bullish | 0.05 | 0.40R | Stopped |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Bullish | 0.07 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Bullish | 0.1 | 0.70R | Stopped |
| Jan 26, 2026 | Bullish | 0.08 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Bullish | 0.06 | 0.17R | Stopped |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Bearish | 0.01 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Bearish | 0.07 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 29, 2025 | Bearish | 0.06 | 1.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Bearish | 0.13 | 1.23R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 9, 2025 | Bearish | 0.07 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Bearish | 0.13 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Bearish | 0.11 | 1.36R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Bearish | 0.09 | 0.22R | Stopped |
| Aug 1, 2024 | Bearish | 0.12 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 5, 2024 | Bullish | 0.06 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 4, 2024 | Bearish | 0.11 | 0.73R | Stopped |
| Mar 7, 2024 | Bullish | 0.06 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Bullish | 0.08 | 2.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 21, 2024 | Bearish | 0.11 | 0.64R | Stopped |
| Oct 4, 2023 | Bearish | 0.05 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 26, 2023 | Bullish | 0.24 | 0.79R | Flat |
| Jun 9, 2023 | Bearish | 0.13 | 2.15R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Bearish | 1.85 | 1.78R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Bullish | 0.08 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 25, 2024 | Bearish | 0.16 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Bearish | 0.34 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 6, 2024 | Bearish | 0.41 | 1.85R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 2, 2024 | Bullish | 0.22 | 1.95R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 11, 2024 | Bullish | 0.26 | 0.92R | Stopped |
| Aug 31, 2023 | Bullish | 0.21 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 24, 2023 | Bullish | 0.15 | 2.27R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 10, 2023 | Bearish | 0.17 | 0.12R | Stopped |
| Sep 30, 2022 | Bearish | 0.17 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 22, 2021 | Bearish | 0.19 | 1.21R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 20, 2021 | Bearish | 0.21 | 1.05R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 7, 2021 | Bullish | 0.24 | 0.29R | Stopped |
| Jul 29, 2020 | Bullish | 0.11 | 0.36R | Stopped |
| Dec 11, 2019 | Bullish | 0.02 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 20, 2019 | Bearish | 0.35 | 1.46R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 16, 2018 | Bullish | 0.08 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 13, 2017 | Bullish | 0.2 | 1.15R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 13, 2017 | Bearish | 0.03 | 2.67R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Bearish | 0.55 | 2.07R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Bullish | 0.26 | 0.42R | Stopped |
| Mar 10, 2022 | Bullish | 0.68 | 0.56R | Stopped |
| Nov 18, 2021 | Bearish | 0.21 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 7, 2021 | Bearish | 0.26 | 0.42R | Stopped |
| Oct 14, 2020 | Bearish | 0.08 | 2.38R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 1, 2020 | Bullish | 0.19 | 1.58R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 23, 2020 | Bullish | 0.34 | 1.06R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 22, 2020 | Bearish | 0.08 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 11, 2020 | Bullish | 0.24 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 16, 2020 | Bullish | 0.35 | 2.66R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 17, 2019 | Bearish | 0.23 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 20, 2019 | Bearish | 0.41 | 1.10R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 29, 2017 | Bearish | 0.11 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 7, 2017 | Bearish | 0.12 | 1.08R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 31, 2017 | Bullish | 0.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 27, 2017 | Bearish | 0.14 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 15, 2014 | Bearish | 0.61 | 0.26R | Stopped |
| Feb 7, 2014 | Bearish | 0.13 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 28, 2013 | Bullish | 0.03 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (18)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025 | Bullish | 0.15 | 0.27R | Stopped |
| Nov 15, 2024 | Bullish | 0.69 | 0.72R | Stopped |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Bullish | 0.45 | 0.84R | Stopped |
| May 20, 2022 | Bearish | 1.38 | 0.47R | Stopped |
| Nov 20, 2020 | Bearish | 0.27 | 0.74R | Stopped |
| Sep 11, 2020 | Bearish | 0.48 | 0.02R | Stopped |
| Jun 13, 2019 | Bearish | 0.47 | 0.36R | Stopped |
| Feb 1, 2019 | Bullish | 0.17 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 8, 2017 | Bearish | 0.15 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Mar 28, 2017 | Bearish | 0.02 | 1.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 14, 2017 | Bullish | 0.18 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 27, 2013 | Bearish | 0.3 | 0.07R | Stopped |
| Jan 8, 2013 | Bullish | 0.41 | 1.39R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 4, 2011 | Bearish | 0.16 | 1.25R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 26, 2010 | Bearish | 0.45 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 6, 2009 | Bullish | 0.68 | 0.84R | Stopped |
| Jun 17, 2008 | Bullish | 1.34 | 0.75R | Stopped |
| Feb 21, 2008 | Bullish | 0.63 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (5)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2026 | Bullish | 0.57 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 26, 2024 | Bearish | 0.55 | 2.51R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 21, 2022 | Bearish | 0.61 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 23, 2019 | Bullish | 0.41 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 28, 2012 | Bearish | 1.21 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (3)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2017 | Bearish | 1.32 | 0.28R | Stopped |
| May 6, 2014 | Bullish | 1.12 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 25, 2010 | Bearish | 2.42 | 0.22R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | Bearish | 0.002 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Bearish | 0.001 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Bullish | 0.002 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Bearish | 0.013 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Bullish | 0.002 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 16, 2026 | Bearish | 0.002 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Bullish | 0.006 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Bullish | 0.008 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 9, 2026 | Bearish | 0.007 | 0.43R | Stopped |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Bullish | 0.003 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Bearish | 0.013 | 0.54R | Stopped |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Bullish | 0.008 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Bullish | 0.01 | 2.60R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Bearish | 0.003 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Bullish | 0.003 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Bullish | 0.012 | 0.25R | Stopped |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Bearish | 0.002 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Bearish | 0.002 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Bullish | 0.005 | 0.60R | Stopped |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Bearish | 0.005 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Bullish | 0.007 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Bearish | 0.003 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Bullish | 0.027 | 1.07R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Bullish | 0.008 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Bearish | 0.005 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Bullish | 0.007 | 0.86R | Stopped |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Bullish | 0.01 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Bearish | 0.002 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Bearish | 0.047 | 1.19R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 26, 2025 | Bullish | 0.016 | 1.94R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 24, 2025 | Bearish | 0.01 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Bullish | 0.026 | 1.27R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 7, 2025 | Bearish | 0.004 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Bearish | 0.019 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Bearish | 0.03 | 1.93R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Bearish | 0.024 | 0.63R | Stopped |
| Oct 2, 2024 | Bearish | 0.012 | 0.75R | Flat |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Bullish | 0.004 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 24, 2024 | Bearish | 0.008 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Mar 26, 2024 | Bearish | 0.005 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Bullish | 0.002 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Bearish | 0.038 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Bearish | 0.044 | 1.09R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Bullish | 0.029 | 0.52R | Stopped |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Bearish | 0.014 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Bullish | 0.025 | 0.08R | Flat |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Bullish | 0.006 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Bullish | 0.023 | 0.09R | Stopped |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Bullish | 0.018 | 0.22R | Flat |
| Jun 18, 2024 | Bullish | 0.02 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 18, 2024 | Bearish | 0.012 | 0.92R | Stopped |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Bearish | 0.015 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 19, 2023 | Bearish | 0.012 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 20, 2023 | Bearish | 0.005 | 1.60R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 2, 2022 | Bearish | 0.022 | 2.73R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 18, 2022 | Bullish | 0.01 | 0.90R | Stopped |
| Feb 24, 2022 | Bearish | 0.03 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 17, 2022 | Bearish | 0.016 | 0.69R | Stopped |
| Oct 11, 2021 | Bearish | 0.038 | 0.95R | Stopped |
| Mar 11, 2021 | Bearish | 0.022 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | Bullish | 0.013 | 0.62R | Stopped |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Bullish | 0.005 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Bearish | 0.028 | 0.18R | Flat |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Bullish | 0.031 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 28, 2024 | Bearish | 0.035 | 0.14R | Stopped |
| Feb 26, 2024 | Bullish | 0.013 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Bearish | 0.024 | 2.08R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 27, 2023 | Bullish | 0.019 | 1.11R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 10, 2021 | Bearish | 0.089 | 0.12R | Flat |
| Jan 8, 2021 | Bearish | 0.03 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 5, 2020 | Bearish | 0.017 | 0.41R | Stopped |
| Jan 6, 2020 | Bullish | 0.021 | 1.14R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 13, 2019 | Bullish | 0.019 | 1.05R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 12, 2019 | Bearish | 0.008 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 19, 2018 | Bullish | 0.056 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 28, 2018 | Bullish | 0.006 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 8, 2017 | Bearish | 0.03 | 0.53R | Flat |
| Jun 7, 2017 | Bullish | 0.007 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 15, 2016 | Bullish | 0.018 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 8, 2016 | Bearish | 0.04 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (19)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Bullish | 0.011 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Bearish | 0.021 | 0.10R | Stopped |
| Nov 18, 2021 | Bullish | 0.058 | 1.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 9, 2020 | Bearish | 0.014 | 1.36R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 3, 2020 | Bearish | 0.027 | 0.04R | Stopped |
| Oct 18, 2019 | Bearish | 0.022 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 23, 2019 | Bearish | 0.02 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 24, 2017 | Bearish | 0.029 | 0.45R | Stopped |
| Jul 14, 2017 | Bearish | 0.014 | 0.64R | Stopped |
| Jun 8, 2017 | Bearish | 0.038 | 0.53R | Flat |
| Mar 24, 2017 | Bearish | 0.023 | 0.78R | Stopped |
| Jul 4, 2016 | Bullish | 0.012 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 19, 2016 | Bullish | 0.017 | 0.53R | Stopped |
| Apr 28, 2014 | Bearish | 0.009 | 0.89R | Stopped |
| Jul 27, 2011 | Bullish | 0.018 | 0.89R | Stopped |
| May 18, 2011 | Bullish | 0.013 | 0.15R | Stopped |
| Nov 16, 2010 | Bearish | 0.035 | 0.83R | Stopped |
| Jul 27, 2010 | Bearish | 0.058 | 0.52R | Stopped |
| Jul 31, 2009 | Bearish | 0.083 | 1.42R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Cypher Completions (2)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 | Bearish | 0.084 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 9, 2022 | Bullish | 0.076 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Cypher Completions (2)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Direction | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2022 | Bullish | 0.97 | 0.82R | Stopped |
| Mar 4, 2013 | Bearish | 0.02 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample backtests (6)
Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.
ES 5m · Cypher · 2020-2024
Cypher · balanced
- Win rate
- 73.08%
- Profit factor
- 1.48
- Max drawdown
- 0.58%
GC 15m · Cypher · 2020-2024
Cypher · balanced
- Win rate
- 66.67%
- Profit factor
- 1.26
- Max drawdown
- 1.17%
GC 5m · Cypher · 2020-2024
Cypher · balanced
- Win rate
- 61.29%
- Profit factor
- 0.92
- Max drawdown
- 2.18%
NQ 5m · Cypher · 2020-2024
Cypher · balanced
- Win rate
- 62.07%
- Profit factor
- 0.69
- Max drawdown
- 2.41%
NQ 15m · Cypher · 2020-2024
Cypher · balanced
- Win rate
- 57.89%
- Profit factor
- 0.65
- Max drawdown
- 5.49%
ES 15m · Cypher · 2020-2024
Cypher · balanced
- Win rate
- 50.00%
- Profit factor
- 0.26
- Max drawdown
- 3.01%