Pattern Detail

Bearish Doji Star

Two-candle bearish reversal: an up candle followed by a doji that gaps higher and stalls, a sign the rally is losing steam.

A real Bearish Doji Star on NQ daily bars, May 10, 2017. Price then followed through 1.7% over the next 5 bars. The bright candles are the pattern; the dimmed bars are surrounding context.
A real Bearish Doji Star on NQ daily bars, May 10, 2017. Price then followed through 1.7% over the next 5 bars. The bright candles are the pattern; the dimmed bars are surrounding context.

Shown only on the markets where this pattern occurs.

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How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.7% for a random short entry (-6.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

2.12×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.87R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.04R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 39.7% for a random short entry. The 6.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±20.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 21 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 21 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome This setup Random entry Edge
Offered ≥ 1R 33.3% 39.7% -6.4
Offered ≥ 2R 23.8% 27.2% -3.4
Offered ≥ 3R 19.0% 19.7% -0.7
Stopped < 1R 66.7% 59.0% +7.6
Went sideways 0.0% 1.3% -1.3

21 occurrences · 354,524 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

A bearish doji star is a two-candle warning at the top. An up candle runs with the trend, then a doji gaps higher and stalls right at the highs, with the open and close in almost the same spot. The gap shows buyers still pushing, but the doji shows they could not finish the job. That sudden balance after a strong candle is the first hint of a turn.

The doji star appears in Steve Nison’s Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques (1991) as an early two-candle warning of indecision after a trend.

How to spot it

  • The market is rising into the pattern.
  • The first candle is an up (green) candle that fits the advance.
  • The second candle is a doji that gaps above the first.
  • The doji’s open and close sit at nearly the same price, a standoff.
  • The stall right after the gap is the signal, not a fresh push down yet.

The dashed box on the chart above marks the 2 candles on a real occurrence, with the advance before and the move after.

The psychology

The up candle is the rally still running, buyers closing the market higher and looking comfortable. Then the doji gaps above it, so on the open the buyers seem to press their advantage once more. By the close, though, the open and close sit in almost the same spot. The gap proves buyers still wanted higher prices, but the flat body proves they could not deliver them. Sellers showed up at the new highs and held the line.

That sudden balance after a strong candle is the first sign the buying is tiring. The market has gone from one-way to a standoff in a single bar, right where the trend should be strongest. Nothing has reversed yet, and there is no down candle to act on. This is a warning, not a verdict: the rally has lost its grip on the wheel, but no one has taken it from them.

Whether that loss of steam turns into a real reversal is what the numbers below test.

Does it actually work?

A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.

For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.

Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.

How we measured it

  • Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
  • One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close up to the pattern’s invalidation point: the highest high of the two candles that form it. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
  • We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
  • Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
  • No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.

What this page does not cover

  • Volume on the pattern’s candles.
  • Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful resistance level.
  • Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
  • A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.

Sample Bearish Doji Star Firings (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time Risk (pts) Room offered Result
Jan 14, 2025, 8:30 AM CST 11.5 0.00R Stopped
Jan 7, 2020, 8:30 AM CST 7.75 0.00R Stopped
Jun 1, 2017, 8:30 AM CDT 3.75 1.60R Ran ≥1R
Aug 23, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT 3.25 0.00R Stopped
Dec 7, 2011, 2:45 PM CST 4.75 3.00R Ran ≥1R
May 6, 2011, 1:15 PM CDT 2.75 3.00R Ran ≥1R
Jul 27, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT 0.5 0.00R Stopped
Jun 1, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT 2.5 0.00R Stopped
Mar 31, 2009, 11:45 AM CDT 0.75 0.00R Stopped
Mar 23, 2009, 9:10 AM CDT 1.75 0.00R Stopped
Mar 12, 2009, 12:00 PM CDT 1.5 0.00R Stopped
Jan 28, 2009, 11:25 AM CST 0.75 3.00R Ran ≥1R
Jan 26, 2009, 9:10 AM CST 3 0.58R Stopped
Jan 15, 2009, 12:40 PM CST 1.5 2.67R Ran ≥1R
Jan 8, 2009, 9:45 AM CST 1.5 0.00R Stopped
Dec 29, 2008, 2:35 PM CST 1.75 0.00R Stopped
Dec 8, 2008, 2:10 PM CST 2.75 3.00R Ran ≥1R
Dec 8, 2008, 1:15 PM CST 2 0.00R Stopped
Nov 24, 2008, 2:10 PM CST 2 1.50R Ran ≥1R
Oct 28, 2008, 2:30 PM CDT 1.5 0.00R Stopped

Sample backtests (2)

Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.

Backtest this pattern

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