Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Bearish Evening Doji Star
Three-candle bearish top: an up candle, a gapped-up doji that stalls, then a down candle that takes price back.
Shown only on the markets where this pattern occurs.
Limited sample (40). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
37.5%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.8% for a random short entry (-4.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
2.33×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.01R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 37.5% of the time vs 41.8% for a random short entry. The 4.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±15.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 40 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 37.5% | 41.8% | -4.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 20.0% | 27.1% | -7.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 10.0% | 18.7% | -8.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 57.5% | 55.9% | +1.6 |
| Went sideways | 5.0% | 2.3% | +2.7 |
40 occurrences · 1,730,193 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
44.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.9% for a random short entry (+3.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.90×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.11R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 44.4% of the time vs 40.9% for a random short entry. The 3.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 9 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 44.4% | 40.9% | +3.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 22.2% | 26.8% | -4.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 22.2% | 18.8% | +3.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 55.6% | 56.5% | -0.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.7% | -2.7 |
9 occurrences · 356,238 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
62.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.2% for a random short entry (+22.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.43×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.50R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 62.5% of the time vs 40.2% for a random short entry. The 22.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±34.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 62.5% | 40.2% | +22.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.0% | 26.9% | -1.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 12.5% | 19.5% | -7.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 37.5% | 56.8% | -19.3 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.0% | -3.0 |
8 occurrences · 119,642 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.0% for a random short entry (-40.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.96×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.54R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 40.0% for a random short entry. The 40.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±42.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 40.0% | -40.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 27.3% | -27.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 20.2% | -20.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 57.6% | +42.4 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.3% | -2.3 |
5 occurrences · 59,877 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
80.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.5% for a random short entry (+40.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.67×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.34R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 80.0% of the time vs 39.5% for a random short entry. The 40.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±42.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 80.0% | 39.5% | +40.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 20.0% | 27.4% | -7.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 20.3% | -20.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 20.0% | 58.6% | -38.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.9% | -1.9 |
5 occurrences · 27,699 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
16.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.8% for a random short entry (-22.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.80×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.50R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 16.7% of the time vs 38.8% for a random short entry. The 22.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±39.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 6 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 16.7% | 38.8% | -22.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 16.7% | 28.5% | -11.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 16.7% | 21.7% | -5.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 83.3% | 60.4% | +22.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.7% | -0.7 |
6 occurrences · 4,540 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 37.3% for a random short entry (-37.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.86×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.00R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 37.3% for a random short entry. The 37.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±42.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 37.3% | -37.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 26.2% | -26.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 19.4% | -19.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 61.8% | +38.2 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.9% | -0.9 |
5 occurrences · 4,683 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
48.1%
Reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.1% for a random short entry (+8.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
2.01×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.27R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.99R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered at least 1R of room 48.1% of the time vs 40.1% for a random short entry — a 8.0-point gap, wider than the ±7.5-point margin of error from chance, and it holds across the sample. A real, if modest, tendency to offer more room than the market alone.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 48.1% | 40.1% | +8.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 34.6% | 25.0% | +9.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 22.2% | 16.4% | +5.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 51.2% | 57.6% | -6.4 |
| Went sideways | 0.6% | 2.3% | -1.7 |
162 occurrences · 1,639,228 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
Limited sample (49). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
40.8%
Not reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.1% for a random short entry (+0.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.45×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.03R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.03R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 40.8% of the time vs 40.1% for a random short entry. The 0.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 49 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 40.8% | 40.1% | +0.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 18.4% | 25.8% | -7.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 12.2% | 17.8% | -5.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 57.1% | 57.3% | -0.2 |
| Went sideways | 2.0% | 2.6% | -0.5 |
49 occurrences · 348,606 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
37.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.8% for a random short entry (-2.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.12×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.19R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 37.5% of the time vs 39.8% for a random short entry. The 2.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±24.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 16 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 16 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 37.5% | 39.8% | -2.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 31.3% | 26.3% | +4.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 12.5% | 18.9% | -6.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 62.5% | 57.4% | +5.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.9% | -2.9 |
16 occurrences · 118,272 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
54.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.2% for a random short entry (+14.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.26×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.33R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 54.5% of the time vs 40.2% for a random short entry. The 14.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 54.5% | 40.2% | +14.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 36.4% | 27.2% | +9.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 27.3% | 19.8% | +7.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 36.4% | 57.6% | -21.3 |
| Went sideways | 9.1% | 2.2% | +6.9 |
11 occurrences · 59,489 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
36.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.5% for a random short entry (-4.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.75×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.87R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 36.4% of the time vs 40.5% for a random short entry. The 4.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 36.4% | 40.5% | -4.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 18.2% | 28.0% | -9.8 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 9.1% | 20.9% | -11.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 63.6% | 57.9% | +5.7 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.6% | -1.6 |
11 occurrences · 27,546 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.6% for a random short entry (+10.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.85×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.58R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 39.6% for a random short entry. The 10.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±27.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 12 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 12 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 39.6% | +10.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 50.0% | 29.2% | +20.8 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 41.7% | 23.0% | +18.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 59.3% | -9.3 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.0% | -1.0 |
12 occurrences · 4,521 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
83.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.7% for a random short entry (+44.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.70×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.92R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.04R for a random short entry.
Summary
The 44.7-point gap over the 38.7% random-entry rate clears the ±39.0-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 6 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 83.3% | 38.7% | +44.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 33.3% | 27.9% | +5.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 33.3% | 20.9% | +12.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 16.7% | 60.2% | -43.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.2% | -1.2 |
6 occurrences · 4,677 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
A bearish evening doji star is a three-candle top. A long up candle runs with the trend, then a doji gaps higher and stalls right at the highs, and a down candle follows to drag price back. The doji is the star: buyers gapped price up but could not hold the gain, and the next session hands control to sellers. It is the evening star with a doji in the middle, which makes the stall cleaner.
Steve Nison documents the evening doji star in Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques (1991), an evening star whose middle candle is a doji.
How to spot it
- The market is rising into the pattern.
- The first candle is a long up (green) candle that fits the advance.
- The second candle is a doji that gaps above the first. This is the star.
- The doji shows a standoff, with the open and close at nearly the same price.
- The third candle is a down (red) candle that pushes price back down.
The dashed box on the chart above marks the 3 candles on a real occurrence, with the advance before and the move after.
The psychology
The long up candle is the rally in full stride, with buyers in command and closing the market near its highs. Then the doji gaps above it, which at first looks like one more leg up. But the bar closes where it opened. The market gapped higher and then could not go anywhere. All that buying pressure, the same force that drove the advance, has run into sellers willing to meet it, and the push stalls dead at the top.
That stall right at the highs is the warning. Buyers spent their momentum to make the gap and got nothing for it, while sellers quietly stood firm. The third candle confirms the shift: price closes down and drags the market off its peak. Latecomers who bought the gap are now underwater, and as some of them sell to get out, the move down gains weight. Control has passed from buyers to sellers at the top of the run.
Whether that turn travels or stalls is what the figures below weigh.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.
For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.
Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close up to the pattern’s invalidation point: the highest high of the three candles that form it. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
- We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.
What this page does not cover
- Volume on the pattern’s candles.
- Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful resistance level.
- Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
- A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2020, 8:31 AM CST | 17.5 | 1.44R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 1, 2019, 8:31 AM CDT | 12.75 | 0.41R | Flat |
| Jan 12, 2015, 11:36 AM CST | 1.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 12, 2012, 1:42 PM CDT | 1.25 | 0.80R | Stopped |
| May 24, 2012, 8:31 AM CDT | 5 | 2.80R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 8, 2011, 1:35 PM CST | 2.5 | 2.80R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 19, 2011, 2:15 PM CDT | 2.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 5, 2011, 2:42 PM CDT | 2.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 13, 2011, 2:21 PM CDT | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 25, 2011, 2:08 PM CDT | 1.5 | 0.17R | Stopped |
| Mar 17, 2011, 10:37 AM CDT | 2.25 | 1.89R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 4, 2010, 8:31 AM CDT | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 19, 2010, 2:31 PM CDT | 4.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 18, 2010, 9:41 AM CDT | 3.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 28, 2009, 9:24 AM CDT | 1.75 | 0.43R | Stopped |
| Mar 18, 2009, 1:13 PM CDT | 1.25 | 0.20R | Stopped |
| Mar 18, 2009, 8:47 AM CDT | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 13, 2009, 2:20 PM CDT | 1 | 0.25R | Stopped |
| Mar 13, 2009, 10:05 AM CDT | 3.5 | 1.43R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 9, 2009, 12:38 PM CDT | 1.25 | 1.80R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (9)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2020, 8:35 AM CST | 32.75 | 0.33R | Stopped |
| Jun 1, 2017, 8:35 AM CDT | 4.75 | 0.74R | Stopped |
| Dec 7, 2011, 2:50 PM CST | 5.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 6, 2011, 1:20 PM CDT | 6.5 | 1.77R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 28, 2009, 11:30 AM CST | 1.75 | 1.14R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 26, 2009, 9:15 AM CST | 3.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 15, 2009, 12:45 PM CST | 2.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 8, 2008, 2:15 PM CST | 4.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 24, 2008, 2:15 PM CST | 3.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (8)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026, 8:45 AM CST | 88.75 | 1.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 13, 2025, 8:45 AM CDT | 51.25 | 2.56R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 15, 2023, 8:45 AM CDT | 51.25 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Mar 17, 2020, 1:30 PM CDT | 75 | 1.86R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 30, 2018, 8:45 AM CDT | 20.5 | 0.44R | Stopped |
| Apr 24, 2018, 8:45 AM CDT | 29 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 16, 2015, 1:15 PM CST | 21.5 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Feb 13, 2009, 10:00 AM CST | 9 | 1.81R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (5)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2024, 9:00 AM CDT | 38.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 28, 2018, 9:00 AM CDT | 17 | 0.94R | Stopped |
| Mar 8, 2018, 9:00 AM CST | 17.75 | 0.68R | Stopped |
| Feb 12, 2018, 9:00 AM CST | 67.75 | 0.23R | Stopped |
| Dec 24, 2013, 9:00 AM CST | 5.25 | 0.86R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (5)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2019, 9:30 AM CST | 36.5 | 1.68R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 22, 2016, 9:30 AM CST | 18 | 2.03R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 2, 2016, 9:30 AM CST | 20.25 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 5, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 31.75 | 0.09R | Stopped |
| Feb 1, 2008, 9:30 AM CST | 32.25 | 1.89R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (6)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 305.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 13, 2017, 8:30 AM CST | 22.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 30, 2015, 8:30 AM CST | 28.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 31, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 22.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 14, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 11 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 7, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 18.25 | 0.03R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (5)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2024 | 167.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 4, 2023 | 45.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 50.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 16, 2012 | 8.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 30, 2009 | 14.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2021, 8:31 AM CDT | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 25, 2020, 8:31 AM CDT | 0.75 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 2, 2017, 8:31 AM CDT | 1.75 | 0.14R | Stopped |
| Nov 29, 2011, 9:43 AM CST | 0.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 25, 2011, 11:53 AM CST | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 10, 2011, 2:08 PM CST | 1.75 | 0.71R | Stopped |
| Nov 3, 2011, 10:21 AM CDT | 1.25 | 0.20R | Stopped |
| Oct 17, 2011, 10:25 AM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 7, 2011, 10:27 AM CDT | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 6, 2011, 9:26 AM CDT | 1.75 | 0.57R | Stopped |
| Sep 29, 2011, 12:12 PM CDT | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 21, 2011, 8:58 AM CDT | 1 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 20, 2011, 10:31 AM CDT | 1.5 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 16, 2011, 2:58 PM CDT | 2.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 8, 2011, 9:35 AM CDT | 1.5 | 0.83R | Stopped |
| Sep 8, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 8.5 | 0.06R | Stopped |
| Aug 30, 2011, 10:10 AM CDT | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 29, 2011, 12:14 PM CDT | 0.75 | 2.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 19, 2011, 9:59 AM CDT | 3.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 17, 2011, 1:45 PM CDT | 2.25 | 0.44R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2022, 8:35 AM CST | 9.75 | 0.10R | Stopped |
| Oct 21, 2013, 8:35 AM CDT | 2 | 0.63R | Stopped |
| Sep 15, 2011, 1:20 PM CDT | 4.25 | 0.12R | Stopped |
| Dec 7, 2010, 1:40 PM CST | 1.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 1, 2010, 11:05 AM CST | 2.5 | 0.70R | Flat |
| Nov 18, 2010, 9:20 AM CST | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 10, 2010, 11:55 AM CDT | 1 | 0.25R | Stopped |
| Aug 5, 2010, 1:00 PM CDT | 1.25 | 0.40R | Stopped |
| Aug 4, 2010, 2:35 PM CDT | 1 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Jul 23, 2010, 9:50 AM CDT | 2.25 | 1.11R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 13, 2010, 2:20 PM CDT | 2 | 0.13R | Stopped |
| Jul 13, 2010, 1:20 PM CDT | 1.5 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Jul 13, 2010, 10:45 AM CDT | 2.25 | 1.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 11, 2010, 11:15 AM CDT | 0.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 3, 2010, 10:10 AM CDT | 1.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 13, 2010, 12:15 PM CDT | 1 | 0.25R | Stopped |
| Apr 7, 2010, 12:30 PM CDT | 1.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 9, 2010, 10:00 AM CST | 2.25 | 0.33R | Stopped |
| Mar 2, 2010, 1:05 PM CST | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 19, 2010, 10:30 AM CST | 1 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (16)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2019, 8:45 AM CDT | 8.75 | 0.31R | Stopped |
| Dec 28, 2018, 8:45 AM CST | 6.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 16, 2015, 1:15 PM CST | 11.25 | 0.40R | Stopped |
| Dec 18, 2012, 8:45 AM CST | 2.5 | 0.40R | Stopped |
| Dec 23, 2011, 9:15 AM CST | 1.5 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Sep 7, 2011, 2:00 PM CDT | 2 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 14, 2010, 11:30 AM CST | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 29, 2010, 11:30 AM CDT | 1.5 | 1.83R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 6, 2010, 8:45 AM CDT | 1.25 | 0.40R | Stopped |
| Apr 22, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 15.75 | 0.06R | Stopped |
| Mar 22, 2010, 10:15 AM CDT | 1.75 | 0.57R | Stopped |
| Mar 4, 2010, 2:00 PM CST | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 6, 2010, 2:00 PM CST | 1.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 17, 2009, 11:45 AM CST | 2 | 0.75R | Stopped |
| Aug 3, 2009, 1:30 PM CDT | 2 | 2.88R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 7, 2008, 8:45 AM CDT | 16 | 2.88R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (11)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023, 9:00 AM CDT | 5.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 27, 2020, 9:00 AM CDT | 16.25 | 0.17R | Stopped |
| Oct 9, 2020, 9:00 AM CDT | 11 | 0.02R | Stopped |
| Jul 20, 2017, 9:00 AM CDT | 3.75 | 2.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 13, 2015, 9:30 AM CST | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 19, 2011, 9:00 AM CST | 4 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 19, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 17.25 | 0.55R | Flat |
| Dec 22, 2009, 1:00 PM CST | 1.5 | 1.17R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 18, 2009, 10:30 AM CDT | 2.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 22, 2009, 2:00 PM CDT | 5.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 13, 2009, 9:00 AM CDT | 7 | 1.36R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (11)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2024, 9:30 AM CDT | 29.5 | 0.22R | Stopped |
| Jun 6, 2024, 9:30 AM CDT | 9.5 | 2.39R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 6, 2022, 9:30 AM CDT | 31.25 | 0.30R | Stopped |
| Jul 22, 2021, 9:30 AM CDT | 7 | 1.43R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 2, 2019, 9:30 AM CDT | 4 | 0.63R | Stopped |
| Feb 10, 2014, 9:30 AM CST | 3 | 0.25R | Stopped |
| Dec 3, 2010, 10:30 AM CST | 4.25 | 0.06R | Stopped |
| Nov 9, 2010, 9:30 AM CST | 4.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 13, 2010, 10:30 AM CDT | 6.5 | 1.31R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 23, 2009, 1:30 PM CST | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 26, 2009, 1:30 PM CDT | 5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (12)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 18.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 17, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 40 | 0.37R | Stopped |
| Dec 13, 2021, 8:30 AM CST | 30.75 | 2.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 27, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 8.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 26, 2021, 8:30 AM CST | 13.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 23, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 24.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 20, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 36 | 0.90R | Stopped |
| Nov 9, 2018, 8:30 AM CST | 41 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 25, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 12.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 11, 2015, 8:30 AM CST | 9 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 23, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 19, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 27.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Doji Star Firings (6)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | 24 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 23, 2023 | 11 | 1.84R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 26.25 | 1.78R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 12.75 | 0.43R | Stopped |
| Aug 27, 2014 | 6 | 1.46R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 7, 2008 | 15.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample backtest
Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.