Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Bullish Morning Star
Three-candle bullish reversal: a down candle, a small gapped-down star, then a strong up candle that reclaims the lost ground.
Shown only on the markets where this pattern occurs.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
46.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.7% for a random long entry (+3.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
2.82×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.17R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 46.4% of the time vs 42.7% for a random long entry. The 3.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±18.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 28 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 28 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 46.4% | 42.7% | +3.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.0% | 27.1% | -2.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 17.9% | 18.2% | -0.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 54.4% | -4.4 |
| Went sideways | 3.6% | 2.9% | +0.7 |
28 occurrences · 1,733,079 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
40.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random long entry (-2.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.92×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.99R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 42.6% for a random long entry. The 2.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±25.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 15 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 15 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 40.0% | 42.6% | -2.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 20.0% | 27.0% | -7.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 6.7% | 18.3% | -11.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 60.0% | 53.6% | +6.4 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.8% | -3.8 |
15 occurrences · 356,990 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
44.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+1.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.22×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.87R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 44.4% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 1.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 9 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 44.4% | 43.3% | +1.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 11.1% | 28.4% | -17.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 11.1% | 20.1% | -9.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 44.4% | 52.5% | -8.1 |
| Went sideways | 11.1% | 4.2% | +6.9 |
9 occurrences · 119,910 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
60.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (+15.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.16×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.43R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 15.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±25.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 15 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 15 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 60.0% | 44.5% | +15.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 40.0% | 29.6% | +10.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 20.0% | 21.2% | -1.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.0% | 51.9% | -11.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.6% | -3.6 |
15 occurrences · 60,046 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
66.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.9% for a random long entry (+20.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.56×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.96R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.23R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 66.7% of the time vs 45.9% for a random long entry. The 20.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±28.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 12 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 12 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 66.7% | 45.9% | +20.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 58.3% | 31.4% | +26.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 41.7% | 22.8% | +18.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 33.3% | 51.1% | -17.8 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.9% | -2.9 |
12 occurrences · 27,736 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
54.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 50.6% for a random long entry (+4.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.90×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.29R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.32R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 54.5% of the time vs 50.6% for a random long entry. The 4.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 54.5% | 50.6% | +4.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 27.3% | 35.2% | -8.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 27.3% | 24.4% | +2.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 45.5% | 47.5% | -2.0 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.9% | -1.9 |
11 occurrences · 4,547 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
55.6%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 49.1% for a random long entry (+6.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.85×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.53R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.26R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 55.6% of the time vs 49.1% for a random long entry. The 6.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 9 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 55.6% | 49.1% | +6.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 44.4% | 31.8% | +12.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 44.4% | 22.2% | +22.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 44.4% | 48.4% | -4.0 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.5% | -2.5 |
9 occurrences · 4,698 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
53.8%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.0% for a random long entry (+12.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
3.56×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.55R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.00R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 53.8% of the time vs 41.0% for a random long entry. The 12.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±26.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 13 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 13 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 53.8% | 41.0% | +12.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 46.2% | 25.1% | +21.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 30.8% | 16.2% | +14.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 46.2% | 56.3% | -10.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.8% | -2.8 |
13 occurrences · 1,648,163 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
61.1%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.0% for a random long entry (+19.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
2.14×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.23R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 61.1% of the time vs 42.0% for a random long entry. The 19.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±22.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 18 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 18 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 61.1% | 42.0% | +19.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 16.7% | 26.1% | -9.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 5.6% | 17.4% | -11.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 38.9% | 54.5% | -15.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.5% | -3.5 |
18 occurrences · 350,702 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
43.8%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.8% for a random long entry (+0.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.47×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.81R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 43.8% of the time vs 42.8% for a random long entry. The 0.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±24.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 16 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 16 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 43.8% | 42.8% | +0.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 6.3% | 27.7% | -21.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 19.3% | -19.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 43.8% | 53.3% | -9.5 |
| Went sideways | 12.5% | 3.9% | +8.6 |
16 occurrences · 119,005 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
62.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random long entry (+18.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
3.00×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.45R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 62.5% of the time vs 43.9% for a random long entry. The 18.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±34.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 62.5% | 43.9% | +18.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.0% | 29.1% | -4.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 25.0% | 20.6% | +4.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 37.5% | 52.6% | -15.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.6% | -3.6 |
8 occurrences · 59,836 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
60.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random long entry (+14.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.05×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.82R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 45.2% for a random long entry. The 14.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±43.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 60.0% | 45.2% | +14.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 60.0% | 30.8% | +29.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 60.0% | 21.9% | +38.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.0% | 51.9% | -11.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.9% | -2.9 |
5 occurrences · 27,713 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
53.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 50.0% for a random long entry (+3.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.90×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.15R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.30R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 53.3% of the time vs 50.0% for a random long entry. The 3.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±25.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 15 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 15 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 53.3% | 50.0% | +3.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 20.0% | 33.9% | -13.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 6.7% | 24.0% | -17.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 46.7% | 47.5% | -0.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.5% | -2.5 |
15 occurrences · 4,546 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
16.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.9% for a random long entry (-31.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.14×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.83R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.23R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 16.7% of the time vs 47.9% for a random long entry. The 31.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±40.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 6 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 16.7% | 47.9% | -31.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 16.7% | 30.7% | -14.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 16.7% | 20.5% | -3.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 83.3% | 49.1% | +34.2 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.0% | -3.0 |
6 occurrences · 4,689 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
A morning star is a three-candle bottom. A long down candle is followed by a small candle that gaps lower and stalls, then a strong up candle drives back into the first candle’s range. The small middle candle is the star: selling momentum runs out, and buyers take the next session.
The morning star is one of the major reversal patterns Steve Nison popularized in Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques (1991), a three-candle bottom built around a small middle star.
How to spot it
- The market is falling into the pattern.
- The first candle is a long down (red) candle that fits the decline.
- The second candle is small and gaps below the first. Sellers push lower but cannot hold it. This is the star.
- The third candle is a strong up (green) candle that closes well back into the first candle’s body.
- The cleaner the gap and the smaller the star, the more textbook the signal.
The dashed box on the chart above marks the three candles on a real occurrence, with the decline before and the move after.
The psychology
The first long down candle says the sellers are still firmly in charge. The trend is theirs, and they close the session having pushed price lower with conviction. Then the small star changes the tone. Price gaps down again, but this time the move goes nowhere. The body stays tiny because neither side can press an advantage, and that stall is the first sign the selling pressure has thinned out.
The third candle is where the handover happens. Buyers step up and drive a strong up bar that closes well back into the first candle’s body, undoing a large part of the prior loss. The people who sold near the lows now watch their edge evaporate, and some of them buy back to cover, which feeds the recovery. The cleaner the gap and the smaller the star, the more it looks like control passed in three clear steps from sellers to buyers.
Whether that shift carries through into a lasting turn is the question the numbers below take up.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.
For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.
Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close down to the pattern’s invalidation point: the lowest low of the three candles that form it. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
- We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.
What this page does not cover
- Volume on the pattern’s candles.
- Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful support level.
- Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
- A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2022, 8:31 AM CDT | 44.75 | 0.23R | Stopped |
| Feb 17, 2022, 8:31 AM CST | 15.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 14, 2021, 8:31 AM CST | 68.25 | 1.08R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 20, 2020, 1:29 PM CDT | 21 | 1.26R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 20, 2020, 1:19 PM CDT | 11.5 | 2.37R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 19, 2020, 8:43 AM CDT | 23 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 6, 2020, 8:31 AM CST | 24 | 1.71R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 9, 2019, 8:31 AM CDT | 23.75 | 0.21R | Stopped |
| Oct 2, 2018, 8:31 AM CDT | 12.25 | 0.20R | Stopped |
| Jun 28, 2018, 8:31 AM CDT | 5.25 | 1.57R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 23, 2017, 8:31 AM CDT | 7.25 | 1.48R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 20, 2016, 8:31 AM CST | 12 | 0.79R | Stopped |
| Dec 13, 2011, 9:49 AM CST | 1.5 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 10, 2011, 11:14 AM CDT | 2 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 9, 2011, 1:38 PM CDT | 7.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 6, 2009, 1:53 PM CST | 1.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 20, 2009, 2:32 PM CST | 5.25 | 0.86R | Flat |
| Feb 11, 2009, 9:10 AM CST | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 16, 2009, 9:45 AM CST | 4.75 | 0.05R | Stopped |
| Dec 22, 2008, 2:03 PM CST | 1.5 | 2.83R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (15)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2022, 8:35 AM CDT | 44.25 | 0.71R | Stopped |
| Feb 28, 2020, 2:10 PM CST | 44.75 | 1.34R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 20, 2019, 8:35 AM CST | 9.25 | 2.38R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 9, 2019, 8:35 AM CDT | 20.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 6, 2015, 8:35 AM CST | 7.25 | 1.17R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 15, 2014, 8:35 AM CDT | 16.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 9, 2011, 12:40 PM CDT | 4.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 24, 2010, 12:55 PM CDT | 3 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 11, 2009, 1:25 PM CDT | 3 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 6, 2009, 10:05 AM CST | 4.75 | 2.37R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 25, 2009, 9:15 AM CST | 6.75 | 0.52R | Stopped |
| Feb 2, 2009, 12:30 PM CST | 2.5 | 0.60R | Stopped |
| Dec 22, 2008, 1:05 PM CST | 4 | 0.06R | Stopped |
| Dec 11, 2008, 2:20 PM CST | 7.25 | 0.72R | Stopped |
| Sep 2, 2008, 11:50 AM CDT | 4.25 | 0.47R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (9)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026, 8:45 AM CDT | 175 | 0.43R | Flat |
| Nov 8, 2024, 8:45 AM CST | 31.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 16, 2023, 8:45 AM CST | 64 | 0.26R | Stopped |
| Apr 7, 2021, 8:45 AM CDT | 63.5 | 1.02R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 18, 2018, 8:45 AM CST | 10 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 24, 2009, 9:15 AM CDT | 8.75 | 1.63R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 20, 2009, 1:15 PM CDT | 6.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 10, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 33.75 | 1.04R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 19, 2009, 9:45 AM CST | 3 | 0.42R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (15)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025, 9:00 AM CST | 83.25 | 0.33R | Stopped |
| Feb 28, 2025, 9:00 AM CST | 296.25 | 1.23R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 20, 2024, 9:00 AM CST | 297.25 | 1.19R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 29, 2022, 9:00 AM CDT | 124.75 | 0.48R | Stopped |
| Oct 6, 2021, 9:00 AM CDT | 163.5 | 2.17R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 16, 2020, 1:44 PM CDT | 71.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 28, 2018, 9:00 AM CDT | 18.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 22, 2018, 9:00 AM CDT | 18.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 18, 2018, 9:00 AM CDT | 29.5 | 1.44R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 29, 2016, 9:00 AM CDT | 20.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 14, 2010, 9:00 AM CST | 10.25 | 0.29R | Stopped |
| Sep 21, 2009, 9:00 AM CDT | 8.5 | 2.24R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 10, 2009, 9:00 AM CDT | 8.75 | 0.09R | Stopped |
| Mar 13, 2009, 11:30 AM CDT | 7.75 | 2.29R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 6, 2009, 10:30 AM CST | 9 | 0.78R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (12)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2026, 9:30 AM CST | 109.75 | 0.44R | Stopped |
| Feb 28, 2020, 9:30 AM CST | 214 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 23, 2019, 9:30 AM CDT | 33.75 | 1.56R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 17, 2018, 9:30 AM CST | 99 | 0.27R | Stopped |
| Jul 23, 2018, 9:30 AM CDT | 44.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 26, 2015, 9:30 AM CDT | 27.25 | 2.89R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 9, 2015, 9:30 AM CST | 21.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 5, 2012, 9:30 AM CST | 13.75 | 2.36R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 4, 2011, 9:30 AM CDT | 45.5 | 0.47R | Stopped |
| May 25, 2010, 9:30 AM CDT | 26.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 20, 2008, 9:30 AM CST | 39.25 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Apr 3, 2008, 9:30 AM CDT | 8 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (11)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 1,003.75 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 14, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 195 | 0.15R | Stopped |
| Oct 31, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 348 | 0.56R | Stopped |
| May 4, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 209 | 1.94R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 10, 2016, 8:30 AM CST | 111.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 30, 2015, 8:30 AM CST | 83 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 17, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 30.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 19, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 85 | 1.58R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 15, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 20.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 26, 2010, 8:30 AM CST | 29 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 3, 2009, 8:30 AM CST | 14.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (9)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1,003.75 | 0.07R | Stopped |
| Aug 14, 2023 | 237.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 11, 2023 | 195.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 6, 2017 | 58 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 3, 2017 | 32.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 9, 2016 | 60.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 10, 2015 | 92.25 | 0.32R | Stopped |
| Jan 27, 2010 | 27.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 16, 2008 | 83.5 | 1.40R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (13)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026, 8:31 AM CDT | 14 | 0.57R | Stopped |
| Nov 6, 2025, 8:31 AM CST | 4.5 | 1.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 6, 2022, 8:31 AM CST | 5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 22, 2021, 8:31 AM CST | 1.25 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 15, 2016, 8:31 AM CST | 5.5 | 2.77R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 31, 2014, 8:31 AM CST | 1.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 21, 2010, 2:44 PM CDT | 1.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 24, 2009, 2:58 PM CDT | 4.25 | 0.29R | Stopped |
| Jan 22, 2009, 2:08 PM CST | 1.75 | 0.57R | Stopped |
| Dec 3, 2008, 2:01 PM CST | 1.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 20, 2008, 2:57 PM CST | 1.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 27, 2008, 2:21 PM CDT | 4.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 22, 2008, 8:34 AM CDT | 2.25 | 0.56R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (18)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2023, 8:35 AM CST | 7.25 | 1.38R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 23, 2019, 8:35 AM CDT | 6 | 1.13R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 13, 2011, 2:40 PM CST | 4.25 | 0.76R | Stopped |
| Oct 3, 2011, 2:30 PM CDT | 3 | 2.58R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 13, 2011, 10:10 AM CDT | 2.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 6, 2010, 1:00 PM CDT | 2.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 11, 2010, 10:20 AM CDT | 2.25 | 1.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 21, 2010, 8:35 AM CDT | 12.75 | 1.22R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 26, 2010, 9:10 AM CST | 3.5 | 1.79R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 9, 2010, 2:00 PM CST | 3 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 28, 2009, 2:50 PM CDT | 2.25 | 0.56R | Stopped |
| Jan 30, 2009, 12:45 PM CST | 3.25 | 1.85R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 5, 2008, 10:55 AM CST | 4.5 | 0.22R | Stopped |
| Oct 29, 2008, 2:10 PM CDT | 12 | 1.94R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 2, 2008, 1:10 PM CDT | 4 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 28, 2008, 12:05 PM CDT | 2 | 0.38R | Stopped |
| Jul 15, 2008, 10:50 AM CDT | 6 | 2.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 4, 2008, 8:35 AM CDT | 2.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (16)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025, 8:45 AM CST | 18.25 | 2.71R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 1, 2023, 8:45 AM CST | 10 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 8, 2021, 8:45 AM CDT | 9 | 0.47R | Stopped |
| Feb 17, 2021, 8:45 AM CST | 17.75 | 0.61R | Flat |
| Sep 17, 2020, 8:45 AM CDT | 20 | 1.27R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 28, 2019, 8:45 AM CDT | 19 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 15, 2012, 8:45 AM CDT | 3.5 | 1.29R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 18, 2011, 1:00 PM CDT | 4.5 | 1.28R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 18, 2010, 11:00 AM CDT | 2 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 10, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 23 | 0.41R | Flat |
| May 7, 2010, 12:30 PM CDT | 10.75 | 0.09R | Stopped |
| Feb 4, 2010, 12:00 PM CST | 3.25 | 0.15R | Stopped |
| Jul 1, 2009, 10:45 AM CDT | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 21, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.75 | 0.47R | Stopped |
| Jan 15, 2009, 9:45 AM CST | 3.5 | 1.43R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 9, 2009, 9:45 AM CST | 4.25 | 1.71R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (8)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024, 9:00 AM CST | 61.5 | 1.48R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 19, 2021, 9:00 AM CDT | 16.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 29, 2016, 9:00 AM CDT | 5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 3, 2009, 10:30 AM CDT | 6.5 | 1.46R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 15, 2009, 10:00 AM CST | 7 | 0.21R | Stopped |
| Nov 20, 2008, 9:30 AM CST | 27 | 0.72R | Stopped |
| Oct 9, 2008, 10:30 AM CDT | 14.75 | 0.64R | Stopped |
| Sep 22, 2008, 11:00 AM CDT | 4.5 | 1.06R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (5)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2020, 9:30 AM CDT | 21.5 | 0.06R | Stopped |
| Mar 24, 2016, 9:30 AM CDT | 4.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 11, 2014, 9:30 AM CDT | 11.75 | 0.06R | Stopped |
| Jul 29, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 31, 2008, 9:30 AM CDT | 9.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (15)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 51.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 11, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 55.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 16, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 116 | 1.75R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 22, 2022, 8:30 AM CST | 58.5 | 1.95R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 19, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 71.25 | 1.03R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 31, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 91.25 | 0.97R | Stopped |
| Mar 29, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 42.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 23, 2017, 8:30 AM CDT | 12.75 | 0.57R | Stopped |
| Jan 30, 2015, 8:30 AM CST | 20.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 30, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 18.25 | 1.71R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 28, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 18.5 | 2.15R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 10, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 37.75 | 2.48R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 12, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 6 | 1.63R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 12, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 10.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 8, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 4.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Morning Star Firings (6)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2023 | 57.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 8, 2022 | 44.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 73.25 | 0.65R | Stopped |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 26.5 | 0.51R | Stopped |
| Aug 3, 2009 | 20.25 | 0.80R | Stopped |
| Jun 25, 2008 | 18 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample backtests (2)
Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.