Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Bearish Evening Star
Three-candle bearish reversal: an up candle, a small gapped-up star, then a strong down candle that gives the ground back.
Shown only on the markets where this pattern occurs.
Limited sample (31). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
71.0%
Reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.8% for a random short entry (+29.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
2.81×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.70R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered at least 1R of room 71.0% of the time vs 41.8% for a random short entry — a 29.1-point gap, wider than the ±17.4-point margin of error from chance, and it holds across the sample. A real, if modest, tendency to offer more room than the market alone.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 71.0% | 41.8% | +29.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 45.2% | 27.1% | +18.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 29.0% | 18.7% | +10.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 29.0% | 55.9% | -26.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.3% | -2.3 |
31 occurrences · 1,730,193 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.9% for a random short entry (+9.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.59×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.92R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 40.9% for a random short entry. The 9.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±27.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 12 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 12 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 40.9% | +9.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 16.7% | 26.8% | -10.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 8.3% | 18.8% | -10.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 56.5% | -6.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.7% | -2.7 |
12 occurrences · 356,238 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
47.6%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.2% for a random short entry (+7.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.15×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.13R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 47.6% of the time vs 40.2% for a random short entry. The 7.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±21.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 21 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 21 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 47.6% | 40.2% | +7.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 19.0% | 26.9% | -7.8 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 9.5% | 19.5% | -10.0 |
| Stopped < 1R | 47.6% | 56.8% | -9.2 |
| Went sideways | 4.8% | 3.0% | +1.8 |
21 occurrences · 119,642 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
25.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.0% for a random short entry (-15.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.05×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.81R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 25.0% of the time vs 40.0% for a random short entry. The 15.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±27.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 12 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 12 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 25.0% | 40.0% | -15.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 16.7% | 27.3% | -10.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 8.3% | 20.2% | -11.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 58.3% | 57.6% | +0.7 |
| Went sideways | 16.7% | 2.3% | +14.3 |
12 occurrences · 59,877 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
12.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.5% for a random short entry (-27.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.92×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.50R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 12.5% of the time vs 39.5% for a random short entry. The 27.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±33.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 12.5% | 39.5% | -27.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 12.5% | 27.4% | -14.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 20.3% | -20.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 87.5% | 58.6% | +28.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.9% | -1.9 |
8 occurrences · 27,699 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
36.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.8% for a random short entry (-2.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.71×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.78R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 36.4% of the time vs 38.8% for a random short entry. The 2.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±28.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 36.4% | 38.8% | -2.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 18.2% | 28.5% | -10.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 18.2% | 21.7% | -3.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 63.6% | 60.4% | +3.2 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.7% | -0.7 |
11 occurrences · 4,540 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
53.8%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 37.3% for a random short entry (+16.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.88×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.28R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.00R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 53.8% of the time vs 37.3% for a random short entry. The 16.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±26.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 13 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 13 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 53.8% | 37.3% | +16.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 38.5% | 26.2% | +12.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 23.1% | 19.4% | +3.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 46.2% | 61.8% | -15.7 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.9% | -0.9 |
13 occurrences · 4,683 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
33.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.1% for a random short entry (-6.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
3.28×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.88R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.99R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 40.1% for a random short entry. The 6.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±22.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 18 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 18 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 33.3% | 40.1% | -6.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 16.7% | 25.0% | -8.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 11.1% | 16.4% | -5.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 66.7% | 57.6% | +9.0 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.3% | -2.3 |
18 occurrences · 1,639,228 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
38.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.1% for a random short entry (-1.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.63×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.87R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.03R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 38.5% of the time vs 40.1% for a random short entry. The 1.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±26.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 13 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 13 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 38.5% | 40.1% | -1.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 7.7% | 25.8% | -18.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 7.7% | 17.8% | -10.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 53.8% | 57.3% | -3.5 |
| Went sideways | 7.7% | 2.6% | +5.1 |
13 occurrences · 348,606 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
42.9%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.8% for a random short entry (+3.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.32×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.17R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 42.9% of the time vs 39.8% for a random short entry. The 3.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±20.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 21 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 21 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 42.9% | 39.8% | +3.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 28.6% | 26.3% | +2.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 19.0% | 18.9% | +0.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 52.4% | 57.4% | -5.0 |
| Went sideways | 4.8% | 2.9% | +1.9 |
21 occurrences · 118,272 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
66.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.2% for a random short entry (+26.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.76×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.74R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 66.7% of the time vs 40.2% for a random short entry. The 26.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 9 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 66.7% | 40.2% | +26.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 44.4% | 27.2% | +17.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 22.2% | 19.8% | +2.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 33.3% | 57.6% | -24.3 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 2.2% | -2.2 |
9 occurrences · 59,489 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
60.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.5% for a random short entry (+19.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.93×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.19R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 40.5% for a random short entry. The 19.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±24.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 15 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 15 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 60.0% | 40.5% | +19.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 26.7% | 28.0% | -1.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 13.3% | 20.9% | -7.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.0% | 57.9% | -17.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.6% | -1.6 |
15 occurrences · 27,546 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.6% for a random short entry (+10.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.85×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.13R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 39.6% for a random short entry. The 10.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±24.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 16 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 16 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 39.6% | +10.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 31.3% | 29.2% | +2.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 18.8% | 23.0% | -4.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 59.3% | -9.3 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.0% | -1.0 |
16 occurrences · 4,521 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
60.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.7% for a random short entry (+21.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.04×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.31R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.04R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 38.7% for a random short entry. The 21.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±24.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 15 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 15 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 60.0% | 38.7% | +21.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 33.3% | 27.9% | +5.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 20.0% | 20.9% | -0.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 40.0% | 60.2% | -20.2 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.2% | -1.2 |
15 occurrences · 4,677 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
An evening star is the morning star flipped: a top. A long up candle is followed by a small candle that gaps higher and stalls, then a strong down candle drives back into the first candle’s range. The little star marks buyers running out of steam before sellers take over.
Steve Nison treats the evening star as one of the major reversal patterns in Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques (1991), the bearish counterpart to the morning star.
How to spot it
- The market is rising into the pattern.
- The first candle is a long up (green) candle that fits the advance.
- The second candle is small and gaps above the first. Buyers push higher but cannot hold it. This is the star.
- The third candle is a strong down (red) candle that closes well back into the first candle’s body.
- The cleaner the gap and the smaller the star, the more textbook the signal.
The dashed box on the chart above marks the three candles on a real occurrence, with the advance before and the move after.
The psychology
The first long up candle is the buyers in full command. The trend is theirs, and they close the session having pushed price higher with conviction. Then the small star changes the tone. Price gaps up again, but the move stalls and the body stays tiny because neither side can extend the gain. After a strong run, that loss of momentum is the first hint that buyers are running low on fresh demand.
The third candle settles it. Sellers take over and drive a strong down bar that closes well back into the first candle’s body, handing back much of the prior gain. The traders who bought near the highs now see their position turn against them, and some sell to get out, which adds to the slide. The cleaner the gap and the smaller the star, the more it looks like control passed in three clear steps from buyers to sellers.
Whether that shift in mood leads to a real top is the question the numbers below take up.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.
For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.
Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close up to the pattern’s invalidation point: the highest high of the three candles that form it. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
- We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.
What this page does not cover
- Volume on the pattern’s candles.
- Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful resistance level.
- Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
- A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025, 8:31 AM CST | 67.75 | 1.36R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 20, 2021, 8:31 AM CDT | 36.25 | 1.32R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 18, 2020, 8:31 AM CDT | 23.5 | 0.27R | Stopped |
| Mar 18, 2020, 2:01 PM CDT | 30.25 | 2.49R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 13, 2020, 12:32 PM CDT | 13 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 11, 2020, 8:31 AM CST | 17.5 | 1.44R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 25, 2019, 8:31 AM CST | 4.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 6, 2018, 9:56 AM CST | 17.5 | 2.93R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 21, 2014, 8:31 AM CDT | 5.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 7, 2014, 8:31 AM CST | 5.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 11, 2012, 8:31 AM CDT | 1.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 22, 2011, 2:50 PM CDT | 7.5 | 0.63R | Stopped |
| Mar 2, 2009, 8:48 AM CST | 2 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 25, 2009, 1:31 PM CST | 1.5 | 2.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 23, 2009, 2:37 PM CST | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 22, 2009, 12:29 PM CST | 4 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 20, 2009, 11:05 AM CST | 1.75 | 1.86R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 20, 2009, 9:23 AM CST | 0.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 12, 2008, 1:40 PM CST | 3.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 9, 2008, 8:47 AM CST | 2.75 | 0.82R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (12)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2023, 8:35 AM CDT | 27.5 | 0.45R | Stopped |
| May 23, 2022, 8:35 AM CDT | 69 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 13, 2020, 11:55 AM CDT | 81.5 | 0.41R | Stopped |
| Jul 23, 2015, 8:35 AM CDT | 8 | 1.03R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 22, 2013, 8:35 AM CDT | 7.5 | 1.23R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 24, 2009, 10:30 AM CDT | 4 | 1.56R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 6, 2009, 11:15 AM CST | 3.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 11, 2009, 10:05 AM CST | 5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 22, 2009, 8:40 AM CST | 5 | 1.10R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 15, 2008, 2:50 PM CST | 10.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 30, 2008, 8:50 AM CDT | 11 | 2.02R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 3, 2008, 10:55 AM CST | 3 | 0.25R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026, 8:45 AM CDT | 48.75 | 1.08R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 15, 2026, 8:45 AM CST | 88.75 | 1.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 26, 2025, 8:45 AM CST | 112.75 | 0.30R | Stopped |
| Aug 13, 2025, 8:45 AM CDT | 51.25 | 2.56R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 12, 2024, 8:45 AM CDT | 36.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 10, 2024, 8:45 AM CDT | 59.25 | 2.92R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 30, 2023, 8:45 AM CDT | 116.5 | 0.91R | Flat |
| May 15, 2023, 8:45 AM CDT | 51.25 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Mar 29, 2022, 8:45 AM CDT | 67.25 | 1.78R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 17, 2020, 1:30 PM CDT | 75 | 1.86R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 24, 2019, 8:45 AM CST | 22.75 | 0.42R | Stopped |
| May 30, 2018, 8:45 AM CDT | 20.5 | 0.44R | Stopped |
| Apr 24, 2018, 8:45 AM CDT | 29 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 17, 2017, 8:45 AM CDT | 5.25 | 1.43R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 22, 2016, 8:45 AM CST | 9.75 | 0.05R | Stopped |
| May 22, 2012, 8:45 AM CDT | 5.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 30, 2011, 11:00 AM CDT | 9.5 | 1.16R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 24, 2011, 1:15 PM CDT | 6.5 | 0.19R | Stopped |
| Mar 17, 2009, 12:45 PM CDT | 7.75 | 0.65R | Stopped |
| Mar 10, 2009, 10:00 AM CDT | 7.75 | 0.10R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (12)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2024, 9:00 AM CDT | 38.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 22, 2024, 9:00 AM CST | 97 | 0.81R | Flat |
| Mar 29, 2022, 9:00 AM CDT | 121.75 | 0.52R | Stopped |
| Mar 15, 2021, 9:00 AM CDT | 61.75 | 0.88R | Stopped |
| Sep 4, 2019, 9:00 AM CDT | 26.75 | 0.21R | Stopped |
| Feb 12, 2018, 9:00 AM CST | 67.75 | 0.23R | Stopped |
| Oct 21, 2016, 9:00 AM CDT | 4.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 22, 2014, 9:00 AM CDT | 8.5 | 0.62R | Stopped |
| Jun 20, 2014, 9:00 AM CDT | 13.75 | 0.04R | Flat |
| Dec 13, 2011, 9:00 AM CST | 12.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 26, 2008, 12:00 PM CST | 11.25 | 2.04R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 10, 2008, 12:00 PM CST | 15.5 | 1.32R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (8)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2024, 9:30 AM CDT | 134.75 | 0.31R | Stopped |
| Jan 26, 2023, 9:30 AM CST | 129 | 0.09R | Stopped |
| Jun 2, 2020, 9:30 AM CDT | 82.75 | 0.09R | Stopped |
| Jan 9, 2020, 9:30 AM CST | 23.25 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 27, 2017, 9:30 AM CDT | 16.75 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Aug 25, 2017, 9:30 AM CDT | 48.5 | 0.81R | Stopped |
| Jan 22, 2014, 9:30 AM CST | 4.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 10, 2008, 12:30 PM CST | 20.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (11)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 116.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 22, 2021, 8:30 AM CST | 229 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 6, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 43.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 22, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 50.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 30, 2018, 8:30 AM CST | 36.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 1, 2017, 8:30 AM CDT | 39.25 | 1.16R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 13, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 18.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 29, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 22, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 23 | 1.39R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 30, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 13.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 21, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 12.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (13)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 454.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 242 | 0.17R | Stopped |
| Jul 4, 2023 | 45.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 25, 2021 | 83.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 16, 2019 | 43.5 | 2.37R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 17, 2019 | 32.25 | 1.12R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 50.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 3, 2017 | 20.5 | 0.85R | Stopped |
| Mar 20, 2015 | 20.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 5, 2010 | 8.5 | 1.06R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 30, 2009 | 14.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 7, 2009 | 49.25 | 2.10R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 7, 2008 | 26 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (18)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2025, 8:31 AM CDT | 7.25 | 0.03R | Stopped |
| Mar 25, 2020, 10:53 AM CDT | 8 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Apr 10, 2019, 8:31 AM CDT | 2.25 | 0.22R | Stopped |
| Sep 28, 2011, 8:33 AM CDT | 1.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 1, 2010, 11:45 AM CDT | 2 | 1.75R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 6, 2009, 2:47 PM CST | 4.75 | 0.47R | Stopped |
| Dec 15, 2008, 12:36 PM CST | 1.5 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Dec 10, 2008, 1:40 PM CST | 1.5 | 0.33R | Stopped |
| Dec 4, 2008, 11:42 AM CST | 1.5 | 0.17R | Stopped |
| Nov 26, 2008, 1:44 PM CST | 1.5 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 14, 2008, 2:38 PM CST | 2.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 7, 2008, 9:40 AM CST | 2 | 0.63R | Stopped |
| Oct 20, 2008, 10:21 AM CDT | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 14, 2008, 10:50 AM CDT | 2.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 14, 2008, 10:29 AM CDT | 2.5 | 0.30R | Stopped |
| Sep 30, 2008, 9:03 AM CDT | 2.5 | 0.30R | Stopped |
| Sep 22, 2008, 2:06 PM CDT | 1.5 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 15, 2008, 11:57 AM CDT | 1.25 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (13)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2022, 8:35 AM CDT | 15.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 5, 2016, 8:35 AM CST | 5.25 | 1.81R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 15, 2012, 8:35 AM CST | 3.25 | 0.54R | Flat |
| Oct 17, 2011, 10:15 AM CDT | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 5, 2011, 1:00 PM CDT | 1.5 | 1.83R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 19, 2011, 2:45 PM CDT | 4 | 0.75R | Stopped |
| Nov 2, 2010, 8:35 AM CDT | 2.25 | 0.44R | Stopped |
| Mar 24, 2009, 10:30 AM CDT | 2 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 12, 2009, 10:50 AM CST | 1.5 | 1.83R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 6, 2009, 9:00 AM CST | 2.5 | 1.10R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 15, 2008, 2:50 PM CST | 7.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 10, 2008, 12:20 PM CST | 2.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 29, 2008, 10:35 AM CDT | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026, 8:45 AM CST | 32.75 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 5, 2025, 8:45 AM CDT | 7 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 17, 2024, 8:45 AM CDT | 11.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 24, 2024, 8:45 AM CDT | 8.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 21, 2024, 8:45 AM CDT | 6 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Jul 6, 2022, 8:45 AM CDT | 15.75 | 1.59R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 23, 2022, 8:45 AM CDT | 22.25 | 0.82R | Stopped |
| Jun 13, 2018, 8:45 AM CDT | 2.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 2, 2017, 8:45 AM CDT | 4.5 | 0.11R | Stopped |
| May 22, 2012, 8:45 AM CDT | 2.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 11, 2011, 10:00 AM CDT | 6.75 | 0.74R | Stopped |
| Sep 3, 2010, 9:00 AM CDT | 6.75 | 0.59R | Flat |
| Aug 18, 2010, 11:00 AM CDT | 2 | 0.13R | Stopped |
| Mar 2, 2010, 10:30 AM CST | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 9, 2010, 11:30 AM CST | 8.75 | 1.37R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 21, 2010, 8:45 AM CST | 4.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 25, 2009, 1:15 PM CDT | 2.25 | 0.33R | Stopped |
| Apr 2, 2009, 11:45 AM CDT | 4.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 13, 2009, 9:15 AM CDT | 7 | 1.36R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 7, 2008, 8:45 AM CDT | 16 | 2.88R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (9)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2020, 9:00 AM CDT | 19 | 0.74R | Stopped |
| Jun 7, 2018, 9:00 AM CDT | 7.5 | 1.60R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 1, 2011, 9:30 AM CST | 7.25 | 0.69R | Stopped |
| Nov 26, 2010, 9:30 AM CST | 4 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 21, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.75 | 1.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 10, 2010, 10:30 AM CST | 2.5 | 2.80R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 12, 2010, 9:30 AM CST | 0.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 27, 2009, 12:00 PM CDT | 2.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 21, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 4.75 | 2.16R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (15)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2025, 9:30 AM CDT | 17.5 | 1.27R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 8, 2024, 9:30 AM CDT | 9.25 | 1.41R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 6, 2024, 9:30 AM CDT | 9.5 | 2.39R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 29, 2024, 9:30 AM CDT | 11.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 6, 2022, 9:30 AM CDT | 31.25 | 0.30R | Stopped |
| Jul 15, 2020, 9:30 AM CDT | 13 | 2.04R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 26, 2017, 9:30 AM CDT | 7.5 | 0.07R | Stopped |
| Sep 1, 2017, 9:30 AM CDT | 2.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 30, 2016, 9:30 AM CDT | 6.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 18, 2014, 9:30 AM CST | 9.5 | 0.13R | Stopped |
| Jun 17, 2010, 1:30 PM CDT | 7.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 9, 2010, 11:30 AM CDT | 1.75 | 1.14R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 28, 2009, 12:30 PM CDT | 2 | 1.25R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 29, 2009, 11:30 AM CDT | 1.75 | 1.14R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 15, 2009, 10:30 AM CDT | 11.5 | 0.63R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (16)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 16.25 | 1.35R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 1, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 33.25 | 2.41R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 4, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 30.25 | 1.21R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 1, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 70.5 | 0.32R | Stopped |
| Dec 13, 2021, 8:30 AM CST | 30.75 | 2.67R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 23, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 24.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 9, 2018, 8:30 AM CST | 41 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 17, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 2.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 20, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 3, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 6 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 28, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 30, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 2, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 10.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 23, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 2 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 17, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 24, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 25 | 1.16R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish Evening Star Firings (15)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2023 | 11 | 1.84R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 26.25 | 1.78R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 19.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 12, 2020 | 43.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 13, 2020 | 56.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 7, 2020 | 19.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 23, 2016 | 15.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 31, 2016 | 9.75 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 7, 2013 | 27.25 | 0.04R | Stopped |
| Jul 23, 2013 | 6 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 22, 2013 | 32.25 | 1.77R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 20, 2012 | 17.25 | 2.03R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 23, 2009 | 19.25 | 2.16R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 16, 2009 | 20.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 7, 2008 | 15.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample backtests (2)
Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.