Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Bearish On Neck Line
Two-candle pattern: a down candle gaps up but closes right back at the prior up candle's high, a weak bounce that often gives way.
Shown only on the markets where this pattern occurs.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
70.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.7% for a random short entry (+29.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.32×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.67R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random short entry.
Summary
The 29.7-point gap over the 40.7% random-entry rate clears the ±18.5-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 27 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 70.4% | 40.7% | +29.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 44.4% | 27.7% | +16.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 40.7% | 19.8% | +20.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 29.6% | 58.3% | -28.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.0% | -1.0 |
27 occurrences · 1,706,892 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
22.2%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.7% for a random short entry (-17.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.13×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.69R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.04R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 22.2% of the time vs 39.7% for a random short entry. The 17.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 9 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 22.2% | 39.7% | -17.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 22.2% | 27.2% | -5.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 22.2% | 19.7% | +2.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 77.8% | 59.0% | +18.7 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.3% | -1.3 |
9 occurrences · 354,524 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
66.7%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.2% for a random short entry (+27.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.40×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.72R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.04R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 66.7% of the time vs 39.2% for a random short entry. The 27.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±55.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 66.7% | 39.2% | +27.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 33.3% | 27.2% | +6.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 33.3% | 20.3% | +13.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 33.3% | 59.3% | -25.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.6% | -1.6 |
3 occurrences · 119,349 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
25.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.9% for a random short entry (-13.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.84×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.53R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 25.0% of the time vs 38.9% for a random short entry. The 13.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±33.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 25.0% | 38.9% | -13.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 27.5% | -27.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 20.8% | -20.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 75.0% | 59.9% | +15.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.1% | -1.1 |
8 occurrences · 59,789 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
40.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.4% for a random short entry (+1.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.48×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.59R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 38.4% for a random short entry. The 1.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±42.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 40.0% | 38.4% | +1.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 40.0% | 27.5% | +12.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 40.0% | 21.2% | +18.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 60.0% | 60.7% | -0.7 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.9% | -0.9 |
5 occurrences · 27,675 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.2% for a random short entry (+11.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.76×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.17R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.04R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 38.2% for a random short entry. The 11.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±33.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 38.2% | +11.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 37.5% | 29.2% | +8.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 12.5% | 23.1% | -10.6 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 61.6% | -11.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.2% | -0.2 |
8 occurrences · 4,539 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
45.5%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 36.5% for a random short entry (+8.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.81×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.06R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.99R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 45.5% of the time vs 36.5% for a random short entry. The 8.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±28.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 45.5% | 36.5% | +8.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 27.3% | 26.8% | +0.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 18.2% | 21.0% | -2.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 54.5% | 63.1% | -8.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.4% | -0.4 |
11 occurrences · 4,681 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
33.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.5% for a random short entry (-5.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.96×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.75R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.95R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 38.5% for a random short entry. The 5.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±24.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 15 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 15 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 33.3% | 38.5% | -5.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 13.3% | 25.2% | -11.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 6.7% | 17.2% | -10.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 53.3% | 60.5% | -7.1 |
| Went sideways | 13.3% | 1.1% | +12.3 |
15 occurrences · 1,599,351 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.7% for a random short entry (+11.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.93×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.30R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.00R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 38.7% for a random short entry. The 11.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±39.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 6 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 38.7% | +11.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 33.3% | 26.0% | +7.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 33.3% | 18.6% | +14.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 60.1% | -10.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.2% | -1.2 |
6 occurrences · 344,822 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
20.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.5% for a random short entry (-18.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.49×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.77R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.01R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 20.0% of the time vs 38.5% for a random short entry. The 18.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±30.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 10 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 20.0% | 38.5% | -18.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 20.0% | 26.4% | -6.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 20.0% | 19.5% | +0.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 80.0% | 60.0% | +20.0 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.4% | -1.4 |
10 occurrences · 117,604 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 38.9% for a random short entry (+11.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.74×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.12R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.03R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 38.9% for a random short entry. The 11.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±33.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 38.9% | +11.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.0% | 27.3% | -2.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 12.5% | 20.4% | -7.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 60.1% | -10.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.0% | -1.0 |
8 occurrences · 59,279 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
28.6%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.2% for a random short entry (-10.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.72×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.75R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 28.6% of the time vs 39.2% for a random short entry. The 10.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±25.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 14 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 14 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 28.6% | 39.2% | -10.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 7.1% | 28.2% | -21.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 7.1% | 21.6% | -14.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 71.4% | 60.1% | +11.3 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.7% | -0.7 |
14 occurrences · 27,486 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
21.4%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.1% for a random short entry (-17.7 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.77×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.68R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 21.4% of the time vs 39.1% for a random short entry. The 17.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±25.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 14 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 14 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 21.4% | 39.1% | -17.7 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 21.4% | 30.1% | -8.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 14.3% | 24.5% | -10.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 78.6% | 60.5% | +18.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.4% | -0.4 |
14 occurrences · 4,520 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
18.2%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 37.6% for a random short entry (-19.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.71×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.62R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.02R for a random short entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 18.2% of the time vs 37.6% for a random short entry. The 19.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±28.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry
Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 18.2% | 37.6% | -19.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 18.2% | 28.5% | -10.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 18.2% | 21.9% | -3.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 81.8% | 61.9% | +19.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
11 occurrences · 4,671 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
A bearish on neck line is a two-candle pause. An up candle runs with the trend, then the next session gaps higher but sellers pull the close back down to sit right at the first candle’s high. The bounce barely holds. That stall at the prior high is the neckline, and a failure to build on the gap hints the buyers are running thin.
How to spot it
- The market is rising into the pattern.
- The first candle is an up (green) candle.
- The second candle gaps open above the first.
- The second candle is a down (red) candle.
- It closes at nearly the level of the first candle’s high, the neckline.
The dashed box on the chart above marks the 2 candles on a real occurrence, with the advance before and the move after.
The psychology
The first candle runs with the trend and closes up, so buyers still look to be in charge. The next session gaps higher, opening above the first candle, which keeps the bullish look alive at the start. Then sellers go to work and drag the close all the way back down to sit right at the first candle’s high. The gap is given back entirely, and the session settles on that prior high, the neckline.
What traders read here is a bounce that could not build. Buyers had the higher open and lost every bit of it by the close, settling exactly where the previous candle topped out rather than pressing on. That stall is the worry. In a healthy advance the gap would have led somewhere, and instead it stuck at the old high, hinting that the buyers carrying the move are running thin. The cleaner the close sits on that neckline, the clearer the stall, and a failure to hold ground gained often comes before the trend gives way.
A bounce that goes nowhere is only a hint, and the numbers below weigh how often it precedes a turn.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.
For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.
Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close up to the pattern’s invalidation point: the highest high of the two candles that form it. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
- We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.
What this page does not cover
- Volume on the pattern’s candles.
- Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful resistance level.
- Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
- A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026, 11:22 AM CDT | 9.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 27, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 15.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 5, 2020, 8:30 AM CDT | 19 | 1.05R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 13, 2020, 11:42 AM CDT | 8 | 1.72R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 11, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.75 | 1.77R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 5, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 5 | 2.30R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 13, 2016, 12:50 PM CDT | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 12, 2015, 9:04 AM CDT | 2.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 9, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 2.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 13, 2012, 2:54 PM CDT | 1 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 12, 2011, 9:45 AM CST | 0.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 7, 2011, 2:13 PM CST | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 28, 2011, 9:52 AM CDT | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 25, 2011, 9:52 AM CDT | 2.75 | 1.73R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 19, 2011, 12:27 PM CDT | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 9, 2009, 8:52 AM CST | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 11, 2009, 11:40 AM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 30, 2009, 1:37 PM CDT | 1.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 30, 2009, 12:33 PM CDT | 0.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 13, 2009, 2:03 PM CDT | 0.5 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (9)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 48.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 7, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 7.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 2, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 5.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 15, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 2.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 4, 2011, 9:02 AM CDT | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 5, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 6 | 0.21R | Stopped |
| May 22, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 12, 2009, 2:55 PM CST | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 16, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 4.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (3)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 14.75 | 1.53R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 3, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 12, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 4 | 0.63R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (8)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 19.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 12, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 30.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 4, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 15.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 16, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 24 | 1.11R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 13, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 11 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 2, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 17.25 | 0.51R | Stopped |
| Jun 10, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.5 | 1.64R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 17, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 16.75 | 0.99R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (5)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 51.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 12, 2017, 8:30 AM CDT | 22.25 | 0.64R | Stopped |
| May 15, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 17.75 | 0.63R | Stopped |
| Sep 19, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.5 | 0.70R | Stopped |
| Jun 1, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 12.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (8)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 67.5 | 2.34R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 5, 2024, 8:30 AM CST | 66.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 14, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 119 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 19, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 118.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 16, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 25.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 27, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 44 | 2.22R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 26, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 11, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 24.75 | 1.83R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (11)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | 203 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 19, 2024 | 21.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 7, 2024 | 69.5 | 1.70R | Ran ≥1R |
| Feb 11, 2020 | 84.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 38.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 2, 2017 | 25.25 | 0.20R | Stopped |
| May 30, 2014 | 6 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 29, 2013 | 8.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 1, 2013 | 24.75 | 0.60R | Stopped |
| Dec 9, 2010 | 12 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 5, 2009 | 12.25 | 2.18R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (15)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 8 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 30, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.5 | 0.27R | Stopped |
| Apr 11, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 4.5 | 0.72R | Flat |
| Aug 25, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.5 | 0.64R | Flat |
| Apr 6, 2020, 8:51 AM CDT | 3.5 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 11, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.25 | 1.38R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 13, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 0.75 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 10, 2010, 1:53 PM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 11, 2010, 11:10 AM CDT | 0.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 17, 2010, 12:58 PM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 22, 2010, 11:57 AM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 10, 2009, 2:32 PM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 16, 2009, 11:46 AM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 10, 2009, 12:53 PM CDT | 0.5 | 1.50R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 27, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.25 | 0.80R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (6)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 5, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 3 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Dec 27, 2017, 8:30 AM CST | 1.25 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 2, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 18, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 1.75 | 0.14R | Stopped |
| Apr 2, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 2 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (10)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026, 8:30 AM CDT | 19.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 24, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 10.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 14, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 8.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 10, 2020, 8:30 AM CST | 7 | 0.25R | Stopped |
| Dec 19, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 8.25 | 0.06R | Stopped |
| Nov 27, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 14, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 3.5 | 0.43R | Stopped |
| May 10, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 9, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.5 | 0.86R | Stopped |
| Feb 24, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 2.75 | 0.09R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (8)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 15.75 | 0.54R | Stopped |
| Jul 18, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 6, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 15.75 | 1.59R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 16, 2021, 8:30 AM CST | 20.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 25, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 3.25 | 1.54R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jan 23, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 1.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 12, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.5 | 0.14R | Stopped |
| Aug 28, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 8 | 2.19R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (14)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 13.75 | 1.29R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 16, 2023, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 22, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 6.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 8, 2017, 8:30 AM CDT | 5.25 | 0.52R | Stopped |
| Dec 8, 2016, 8:30 AM CST | 4.5 | 0.11R | Stopped |
| Dec 27, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 2.25 | 1.89R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 25, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 3.5 | 1.29R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 8, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.5 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Jan 23, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 3 | 0.67R | Stopped |
| Aug 27, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 16, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.25 | 0.15R | Stopped |
| Apr 15, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.25 | 0.85R | Stopped |
| Mar 24, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 4 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 16, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 5.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (14)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jan 24, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 23.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 23, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 17 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 5, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 37.25 | 0.85R | Stopped |
| Oct 22, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 18 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 11, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 4.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 15, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Apr 28, 2020, 8:30 AM CDT | 40.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 31, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 2.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 27, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 4.5 | 0.44R | Stopped |
| Aug 21, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.5 | 2.18R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 28, 2010, 8:30 AM CST | 2.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 23, 2009, 8:30 AM CST | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 5, 2009, 8:30 AM CDT | 8.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bearish On Neck Line Firings (11)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2024 | 35 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 19, 2024 | 4.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 25.25 | 0.83R | Stopped |
| Jun 29, 2021 | 8.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 15, 2019 | 3.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 10, 2019 | 19 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 4, 2017 | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 24, 2012 | 3.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 28, 2010 | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 6, 2010 | 2 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 23, 2009 | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample backtests (2)
Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.