Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Bullish On Neck Line
Two-candle pattern: a down candle, then a weak up candle that gaps lower and only claws back to the first candle's low.
Shown only on the markets where this pattern occurs.
Limited sample (36). Directional at best.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
61.1%
Reliable
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.8% for a random long entry (+19.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.64×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.63R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered at least 1R of room 61.1% of the time vs 41.8% for a random long entry — a 19.4-point gap, wider than the ±16.1-point margin of error from chance, and it holds across the sample. A real, if modest, tendency to offer more room than the market alone.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 61.1% | 41.8% | +19.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 47.2% | 28.1% | +19.1 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 36.1% | 19.7% | +16.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 38.9% | 57.0% | -18.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.3% | -1.3 |
36 occurrences · 1,710,005 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.8% for a random long entry (+8.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.82×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.34R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 41.8% for a random long entry. The 8.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±27.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 12 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 12 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 41.8% | +8.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 33.3% | 28.0% | +5.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 16.7% | 19.9% | -3.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 41.7% | 56.4% | -14.7 |
| Went sideways | 8.3% | 1.8% | +6.6 |
12 occurrences · 355,242 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.3% for a random long entry (-42.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.29×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.91R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 42.3% for a random long entry. The 42.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±68.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 42.3% | -42.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 29.2% | -29.2 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 21.3% | -21.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 0.0% | 55.4% | -55.4 |
| Went sideways | 100.0% | 2.2% | +97.8 |
2 occurrences · 119,637 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
33.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random long entry (-10.4 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.95×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.16R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 43.7% for a random long entry. The 10.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 33.3% | 43.7% | -10.4 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 33.3% | 30.7% | +2.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 33.3% | 22.8% | +10.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 66.7% | 54.6% | +12.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.7% | -1.7 |
3 occurrences · 59,963 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
75.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.0% for a random long entry (+30.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.93×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.57R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.22R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 75.0% of the time vs 45.0% for a random long entry. The 30.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±48.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 75.0% | 45.0% | +30.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 50.0% | 32.6% | +17.4 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 25.0% | 24.8% | +0.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 25.0% | 53.7% | -28.7 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.3% | -1.3 |
4 occurrences · 27,712 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 50.0% for a random long entry (-50.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.71×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.35R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 50.0% for a random long entry. The 50.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±98.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 50.0% | -50.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 37.7% | -37.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 28.8% | -28.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 49.5% | +50.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.5 |
1 occurrences · 4,548 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
100.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.9% for a random long entry (+52.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.20×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
3.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.27R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 47.9% for a random long entry. The 52.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 100.0% | 47.9% | +52.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 100.0% | 34.7% | +65.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 100.0% | 25.9% | +74.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 0.0% | 51.4% | -51.4 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.8% | -0.8 |
1 occurrences · 4,697 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
28.6%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.4% for a random long entry (-10.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.45×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.76R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 0.97R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 28.6% of the time vs 39.4% for a random long entry. The 10.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±20.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 21 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 21 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 28.6% | 39.4% | -10.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 23.8% | 25.5% | -1.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 19.0% | 17.1% | +1.9 |
| Stopped < 1R | 71.4% | 59.3% | +12.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.3% | -1.3 |
21 occurrences · 1,607,385 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
33.3%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.8% for a random long entry (-7.5 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.66×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.53R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.04R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 40.8% for a random long entry. The 7.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±55.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 33.3% | 40.8% | -7.5 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 26.9% | -26.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 18.7% | -18.7 |
| Stopped < 1R | 66.7% | 57.5% | +9.2 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.7% | -1.7 |
3 occurrences · 346,986 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
75.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.9% for a random long entry (+33.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.65×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.76R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 75.0% of the time vs 41.9% for a random long entry. The 33.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±48.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 75.0% | 41.9% | +33.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 50.0% | 28.4% | +21.6 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 50.0% | 20.5% | +29.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 25.0% | 56.2% | -31.2 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.9% | -1.9 |
4 occurrences · 118,396 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
20.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.2% for a random long entry (-23.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.51×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.80R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 20.0% of the time vs 43.2% for a random long entry. The 23.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±43.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 20.0% | 43.2% | -23.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 20.0% | 30.0% | -10.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 20.0% | 22.1% | -2.1 |
| Stopped < 1R | 80.0% | 55.1% | +24.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.7% | -1.7 |
5 occurrences · 59,643 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
25.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (-19.6 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.09×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.43R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 25.0% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 19.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±34.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 25.0% | 44.6% | -19.6 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 32.3% | -32.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 24.3% | -24.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 75.0% | 54.1% | +20.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.3% | -1.3 |
8 occurrences · 27,664 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 50.1% for a random long entry (-0.1 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.09×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.12R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.33R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 50.1% for a random long entry. The 0.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±49.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 50.1% | -0.1 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 25.0% | 37.0% | -12.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 25.0% | 27.8% | -2.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 49.1% | +0.9 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 0.9% | -0.9 |
4 occurrences · 4,544 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 2 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
100.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.0% for a random long entry (+53.0 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.53×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
2.02R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.24R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 47.0% for a random long entry. The 53.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 100.0% | 47.0% | +53.0 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 100.0% | 33.1% | +66.9 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 24.4% | -24.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 0.0% | 52.0% | -52.0 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 1.0% | -1.0 |
1 occurrences · 4,689 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
A bullish on neck line is a two-candle shape that looks like a bounce but barely is one. A long down candle comes first. The next candle gaps lower, then rallies just enough to close right at the first candle’s low. Buyers showed up, but they could only lift price back to the prior low and no further. The rebound is shallow, which is why this pattern often disappoints despite the up candle.
How to spot it
- The market is falling into the pattern.
- The first candle is a down (red) candle that fits the decline.
- The second candle opens lower, gapping below the first candle’s close.
- It closes up (green) but only reaches the first candle’s low.
- The close stalls at that low rather than pushing into the first candle’s body.
- The shallower the bounce, the weaker the signal it gives.
The dashed box on the chart above marks the two candles on a real occurrence, with the decline before and the move after.
The psychology
The long down candle hands the session to the sellers, and the next bar opens lower still, deep in their territory. That lower open is a comfortable place for the people who are short. Then buyers try to answer. They lift price off the lows and turn the candle green, but the rally runs out of steam exactly at the first candle’s low and goes no further.
That stalling point is the whole story. The buyers had their chance to push into the prior body and reclaim ground, and they could not. They lifted price back to where the last leg of selling began and then quit. Sellers who are still in the driver’s seat read that weak bounce as room to keep pressing, since the attempt to turn the trend never threatened them. The shallower the recovery, the more it looks like a pause in the decline rather than the start of a rebound.
How often that shallow bounce actually leads anywhere is what the figures below set out to answer.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.
For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.
Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close down to the pattern’s invalidation point: the lowest low of the two candles that form it. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
- We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.
What this page does not cover
- Volume on the pattern’s candles.
- Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful support level.
- Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
- A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026, 1:58 PM CDT | 10 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 13, 2026, 12:33 PM CDT | 9.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 30, 2021, 8:30 AM CST | 21.25 | 1.61R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 2, 2020, 8:30 AM CDT | 47.75 | 1.17R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 7, 2017, 8:30 AM CST | 3 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 27, 2013, 10:24 AM CDT | 0.5 | 0.50R | Stopped |
| Mar 13, 2013, 1:47 PM CDT | 1 | 0.75R | Stopped |
| Oct 22, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.25 | 2.54R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 12, 2012, 11:11 AM CDT | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 13, 2011, 2:00 PM CST | 1 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 13, 2011, 9:48 AM CST | 0.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 12, 2011, 2:09 PM CST | 1.75 | 1.43R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 13, 2011, 10:50 AM CDT | 1.5 | 2.83R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 12, 2011, 12:57 PM CDT | 0.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 12, 2011, 10:59 AM CDT | 1 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 5, 2011, 8:43 AM CDT | 0.75 | 2.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 13, 2011, 2:46 PM CDT | 1 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 10, 2010, 12:20 PM CST | 0.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 22, 2010, 12:53 PM CDT | 0.75 | 1.33R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 8, 2009, 1:05 PM CDT | 0.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (12)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2024, 8:30 AM CDT | 21.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 28, 2023, 8:30 AM CST | 24.5 | 0.34R | Stopped |
| Jul 21, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 26 | 2.60R | Ran ≥1R |
| Oct 14, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 5.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 24, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 5.5 | 0.68R | Stopped |
| Dec 29, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 4.75 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 4, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 7 | 1.64R | Ran ≥1R |
| Dec 11, 2013, 8:30 AM CST | 2.5 | 1.80R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 26, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 7.25 | 0.97R | Flat |
| Mar 9, 2010, 8:30 AM CST | 5.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jul 4, 2008, 9:30 AM CDT | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 16, 2008, 1:05 PM CDT | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (2)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 24.75 | 0.97R | Flat |
| Mar 23, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 10 | 0.85R | Flat |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (3)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 100.25 | 0.48R | Stopped |
| May 15, 2019, 8:30 AM CDT | 45.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 24, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 5.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (4)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2026, 8:30 AM CST | 95.5 | 1.06R | Ran ≥1R |
| Aug 26, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 116 | 2.22R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 17, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 16 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 31, 2010, 8:30 AM CDT | 21.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2015, 8:30 AM CST | 20.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2016 | 58.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (20)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2016, 11:04 AM CST | 0.25 | 2.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 24, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.75 | 0.29R | Stopped |
| Dec 29, 2014, 8:30 AM CST | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jun 13, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.25 | 0.60R | Stopped |
| Dec 13, 2011, 2:00 PM CST | 0.25 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 25, 2011, 8:30 AM CST | 0.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 14, 2011, 10:46 AM CDT | 0.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Sep 13, 2011, 10:50 AM CDT | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 26, 2010, 10:20 AM CST | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 7, 2010, 1:18 PM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 24, 2010, 12:06 PM CDT | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 18, 2010, 12:55 PM CDT | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Dec 11, 2009, 1:38 PM CST | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 29, 2009, 11:59 AM CDT | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Sep 1, 2009, 10:58 AM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 2, 2009, 2:32 PM CDT | 0.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Mar 26, 2009, 9:46 AM CDT | 0.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 18, 2009, 8:52 AM CDT | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 13, 2009, 10:08 AM CDT | 0.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 9, 2009, 12:55 PM CDT | 0.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (3)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2021, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.25 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Aug 22, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.75 | 0.27R | Stopped |
| Mar 31, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.5 | 1.33R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (4)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025, 8:30 AM CST | 13.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 7, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 12 | 1.02R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 30, 2018, 8:30 AM CST | 4.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| May 15, 2012, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (5)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2025, 8:30 AM CDT | 9.75 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 24, 2023, 8:30 AM CST | 5 | 0.60R | Stopped |
| Mar 1, 2023, 8:30 AM CST | 10 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Jul 17, 2014, 8:30 AM CDT | 5.75 | 0.39R | Stopped |
| Mar 31, 2011, 8:30 AM CDT | 1 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (8)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2023, 8:30 AM CST | 12.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Mar 14, 2022, 8:30 AM CDT | 36.75 | 0.48R | Stopped |
| Feb 26, 2019, 8:30 AM CST | 7 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 18, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 4.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 6, 2018, 8:30 AM CST | 46.5 | 1.96R | Ran ≥1R |
| Apr 22, 2016, 8:30 AM CDT | 1.75 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| May 22, 2015, 8:30 AM CDT | 3.25 | 1.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 15, 2012, 8:30 AM CST | 5.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (4)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2021, 8:30 AM CST | 22 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 25, 2018, 8:30 AM CDT | 32.5 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Oct 9, 2013, 8:30 AM CDT | 13.5 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |
| Jun 4, 2008, 8:30 AM CDT | 10.25 | 1.46R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish On Neck Line Firings (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Date | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2008 | 10.75 | 2.02R | Ran ≥1R |