Fractiz
Pattern Detail
Bullish Three Stars In The South
Three shrinking down candles after a decline, each making a higher low, read as selling that is fading toward a bottom.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
100.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.8% for a random long entry (+57.2 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.25×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.63R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 42.8% for a random long entry. The 57.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 100.0% | 42.8% | +57.2 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 27.3% | -27.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 18.5% | -18.5 |
| Stopped < 1R | 0.0% | 53.6% | -53.6 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.6% | -3.6 |
1 occurrences · 1,165,570 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.3% for a random long entry (-41.3 pts).
Move size vs normal
3.90×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.05R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 41.3% for a random long entry. The 41.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 41.3% | -41.3 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 26.0% | -26.0 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 17.4% | -17.4 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 55.6% | +44.4 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.2% | -3.2 |
1 occurrences · 5,537,711 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
0.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.9% for a random long entry (-40.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.05×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.00R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.04R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 40.9% for a random long entry. The 40.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 0.0% | 40.9% | -40.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 25.7% | -25.7 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 17.3% | -17.3 |
| Stopped < 1R | 100.0% | 55.9% | +44.1 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.2% | -3.2 |
1 occurrences · 5,363,489 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.1% for a random long entry (+9.9 pts).
Move size vs normal
1.59×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.
Typical room (20-bar)
0.87R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.01R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 40.1% for a random long entry. The 9.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±48.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 40.1% | +9.9 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 0.0% | 25.3% | -25.3 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 0.0% | 17.2% | -17.2 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 56.5% | -6.5 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.5% | -3.5 |
4 occurrences · 3,872,511 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
i
How to read this
Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 3 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.
Room offered (≥ 1R)
50.0%
Too few to trust
Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.2% for a random long entry (+8.8 pts).
Move size vs normal
0.78×
Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.
Typical room (20-bar)
1.50R
Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.
Summary
Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 41.2% for a random long entry. The 8.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±68.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.
Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry
Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
| Outcome | This setup | Random entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offered ≥ 1R | 50.0% | 41.2% | +8.8 |
| Offered ≥ 2R | 50.0% | 26.5% | +23.5 |
| Offered ≥ 3R | 50.0% | 18.2% | +31.8 |
| Stopped < 1R | 50.0% | 55.2% | -5.2 |
| Went sideways | 0.0% | 3.6% | -3.6 |
2 occurrences · 925,705 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
This pattern did not fire often enough on this market and timeframe to measure. Try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.
A three stars in the south is a rare three-candle bottom where the selling shrinks bar by bar. The first candle is a long down candle with a long lower wick, sellers driving deep but getting pushed back off the low. The second is a smaller down candle that makes a higher low and closes lower with no wick to spare. The third is a small down candle that holds an even higher low. Each candle has less reach than the last. The downtrend is running out of room, and a bottom is forming.
How to spot it
- The market is falling into the pattern.
- The first candle is a down (red) candle with a long lower wick and little or no upper wick.
- The second candle is a smaller down candle that opens inside the first body, closes lower, and makes a higher low than the first.
- The third candle is a small down candle that holds a higher low than the second.
- Each candle covers less ground than the one before, the selling visibly fading.
The dashed box on the chart above marks the three candles on a real occurrence, with the decline before and the move after.
The psychology
All three candles are still red, so on the surface sellers stay in charge the whole way through. What changes is how much they can manage. The first bar drives deep but gets pushed off its low, leaving a long tail. The second cannot reach as far and makes a higher low. The third barely moves and holds higher still.
Read in sequence, that is selling pressure fading in plain sight. Each bar the sellers swing and connect with less, and the rising lows show buyers quietly meeting them sooner every time. Control has not flipped yet, nobody is buying aggressively, but the side that drove the decline is visibly running out of force as the move grinds toward a floor.
Selling that shrinks bar by bar suggests a bottom is near. How reliably that exhaustion turns into a real turn is what the numbers below address.
Does it actually work?
A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the honest question is not “did it win” but “how much room did it tend to offer before it was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.
For each occurrence we measure the room the move offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random entry on the same market would have done. When the pattern offers more room more often than chance, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.
Read it with the sample size in view. On the faster timeframes a pattern can fire thousands of times, enough to trust. On the daily chart it is far rarer, so treat those numbers as a hint rather than a verdict. Thin samples are flagged for you on the page.
How we measured it
- Entry is the close of the final candle of the pattern.
- One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close down to the pattern’s invalidation point: the lowest low of the three candles that form it. If price trades through there, the setup is wrong.
- We then follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the stop was hit.
- Every figure is set against a random entry on the same market and timeframe, so the market’s own drift is accounted for.
- No profit target and no position sizing. Where you take profit is a strategy choice; this measures only the room the pattern tends to give.
What this page does not cover
- Volume on the pattern’s candles.
- Whether the pattern forms at a meaningful support level.
- Pairing it with a trend filter or a confirming signal.
- A profit target or position sizing. We use the pattern’s own invalidation point as the stop to define risk, but where you take profit, and how much you put on, are strategy decisions this page leaves to you.
Sample Bullish Three Stars In The South Firings (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2024, 5:15 PM CDT | 6.75 | 1.63R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Three Stars In The South Firings (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2008, 6:52 PM CDT | 0.8 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Three Stars In The South Firings (1)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2011, 4:11 AM CST | 0.03 | 0.00R | Stopped |
Sample Bullish Three Stars In The South Firings (4)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2021, 1:01 PM CDT | 0.005 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Nov 30, 2018, 5:22 AM CST | 0.005 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 27, 2018, 7:11 AM CST | 0.008 | 1.75R | Ran ≥1R |
| Nov 13, 2009, 7:09 AM CST | 0.004 | 1.75R | Ran ≥1R |
Sample Bullish Three Stars In The South Firings (2)
Based on data through Apr 29, 2026
| Time | Risk (pts) | Room offered | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2017, 11:12 AM CDT | 0.002 | 0.00R | Stopped |
| Feb 16, 2014, 8:28 PM CST | 0.004 | 3.00R | Ran ≥1R |