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Pattern Detail

Crab

Q: Do harmonic patterns like the Crab actually work?

Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed Crab by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.

Q: What is the Crab pattern success rate?

There is no single reliable figure, and the often-cited round-number rates rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or test period, and almost never state what target and stop they assume. Rather than quote folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape. The Crab is one of the rarer structures, so read that comparison alongside the count shown for each market and timeframe.

Q: How is the Crab defined here?

It is a five-point XABCD structure where B retraces 0.382 to 0.618 of XA, C retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of AB, D projects 2.618 to 3.618 of BC, and D extends to 1.618 of XA, all holding at once within a 5% tolerance. Pivots use 3 bars on each side and are confirmed before they count.

The deepest extension in the family, completing at a 1.618 projection, built for sharp reversals from overshoots.

B = 0.382-0.618 of XA
C = 0.382-0.886 of AB
D = 2.618-3.618 of BC
D = 1.618 of XA

Idealized bullish Crab. It completes at a low and projects a move up.

Bullish Crab

Limited sample (57). Directional at best.

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random long entry (-4.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.21×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.99R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.4% of the time vs 44.4% for a random long entry. The 4.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±12.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 57 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.4%	44.4%	-4.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	17.5%	22.6%	-5.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	8.8%	12.5%	-3.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	49.1%	45.9%	+3.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.5%	9.7%	+0.8

57 occurrences · 136,704 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

Limited sample (53). Directional at best.

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (+0.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.99×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.3% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry. The 0.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 53 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.3%	44.6%	+0.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.4%	24.2%	+2.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	7.5%	14.1%	-6.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	49.1%	47.6%	+1.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	5.7%	7.8%	-2.1

53 occurrences · 136,054 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.5%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (+1.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.30×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.16R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.5% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 1.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.5%	44.1%	+1.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.2%	22.7%	-4.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.1%	13.1%	-4.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	36.4%	43.4%	-7.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	18.2%	12.5%	+5.7

11 occurrences · 30,293 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

11.1%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random short entry (-33.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.16×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.67R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 11.1% of the time vs 44.3% for a random short entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 9 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	11.1%	44.3%	-33.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	24.8%	-24.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.2%	-15.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	47.0%	+19.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	22.2%	8.8%	+13.5

9 occurrences · 29,992 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (-44.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.22×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.42R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 44.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±68.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	44.1%	-44.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	24.7%	-24.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.7%	-15.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	42.7%	+7.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	50.0%	13.2%	+36.8

2 occurrences · 10,656 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

66.7%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.0% for a random short entry (+23.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.72×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.76R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 66.7% of the time vs 43.0% for a random short entry. The 23.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	66.7%	43.0%	+23.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	55.6%	25.9%	+29.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	22.2%	17.0%	+5.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	33.3%	47.1%	-13.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.9%	-9.9

9 occurrences · 10,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (-44.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.82×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.67R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 44.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	44.5%	-44.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	24.1%	-24.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	14.6%	-14.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	43.5%	+56.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	12.0%	-12.0

1 occurrences · 5,466 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random short entry (+56.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.76×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

2.43R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 44.0% for a random short entry. The 56.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	44.0%	+56.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	66.7%	26.3%	+40.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	66.7%	17.3%	+49.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	47.6%	-47.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	8.4%	-8.4

3 occurrences · 5,325 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (-43.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.74×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.57R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry. The 43.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±68.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	43.8%	-43.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	26.7%	-26.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	17.2%	-17.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	50.6%	+49.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	5.6%	-5.6

2 occurrences · 2,611 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

Limited sample (38). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

55.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (+11.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.34×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 55.3% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 11.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±15.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 38 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	55.3%	44.3%	+11.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	15.8%	21.6%	-5.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	5.3%	11.6%	-6.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	34.2%	45.7%	-11.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.5%	10.0%	+0.5

38 occurrences · 100,574 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

Limited sample (41). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random short entry (+4.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.16×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 48.8% of the time vs 44.4% for a random short entry. The 4.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±15.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 41 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.8%	44.4%	+4.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	17.1%	23.0%	-5.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.2%	13.0%	-0.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.9%	47.3%	-3.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	7.3%	8.2%	-0.9

41 occurrences · 99,273 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

28.6%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (-15.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.72×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.88R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 28.6% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 15.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±26.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 14 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 14 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	28.6%	44.3%	-15.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.4%	22.4%	-1.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	21.4%	12.5%	+8.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	57.1%	43.3%	+13.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.3%	12.4%	+1.9

14 occurrences · 26,201 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.2% for a random short entry (+55.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.24×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

2.81R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.

Summary

The 55.8-point gap over the 44.2% random-entry rate clears the ±43.5-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	44.2%	+55.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	100.0%	23.9%	+76.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	80.0%	14.4%	+65.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	46.8%	-46.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.0%	-9.0

5 occurrences · 25,439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (-44.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.89×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.40R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 44.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±48.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	44.5%	-44.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	24.7%	-24.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.0%	-15.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	42.4%	+57.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	13.1%	-13.1

4 occurrences · 9,935 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-43.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.54×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.12R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 43.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±68.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	43.3%	-43.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	25.5%	-25.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.4%	-16.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	46.3%	+53.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.4%	-10.4

2 occurrences · 9,497 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (-11.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.93×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.06R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 11.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	44.3%	-11.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.3%	23.3%	+10.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	33.3%	14.2%	+19.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	43.7%	+23.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	12.0%	-12.0

3 occurrences · 5,306 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (+54.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.51×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 54.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	45.2%	+54.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	26.5%	-26.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.9%	-16.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	46.6%	-46.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	8.2%	-8.2

1 occurrences · 5,060 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (+53.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.54×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.50R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 53.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	46.6%	+53.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	26.0%	-26.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.2%	-15.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	44.2%	-44.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.1%	-9.1

1 occurrences · 2,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (+4.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.55×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.50R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.21R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 4.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±69.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	45.2%	+4.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	50.0%	28.0%	+22.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	50.0%	19.0%	+31.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	49.7%	+0.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	5.1%	-5.1

2 occurrences · 2,539 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.9% for a random long entry (+1.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.18×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.02R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.8% of the time vs 42.9% for a random long entry. The 1.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 154 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.8%	42.9%	+1.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	16.2%	22.4%	-6.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.7%	12.8%	-3.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.9%	46.3%	-3.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.3%	10.9%	+1.5

154 occurrences · 393,642 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (-2.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.20×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.06R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.3% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 2.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 160 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.3%	43.6%	-2.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.3%	23.3%	-2.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.3%	13.5%	-2.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.8%	46.4%	-2.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	15.0%	10.0%	+5.0

160 occurrences · 391,020 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

Limited sample (44). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

38.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (-4.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.47×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 38.6% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 4.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 44 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	38.6%	43.3%	-4.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.7%	22.8%	-0.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.6%	13.0%	+0.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.9%	45.4%	-4.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	20.5%	11.3%	+9.2

44 occurrences · 98,903 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

Limited sample (43). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random short entry (+4.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.24×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 48.8% of the time vs 44.1% for a random short entry. The 4.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 43 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.8%	44.1%	+4.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.6%	23.8%	-5.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.0%	14.0%	-0.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	32.6%	45.9%	-13.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	18.6%	10.0%	+8.6

43 occurrences · 97,699 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

47.6%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+4.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.27×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.01R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 47.6% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 4.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±21.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 21 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 21 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	47.6%	43.3%	+4.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	19.0%	23.2%	-4.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	13.8%	+0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.6%	44.7%	+2.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	4.8%	11.9%	-7.2

21 occurrences · 36,235 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random short entry (+6.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.27R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 43.9% for a random short entry. The 6.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±24.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 16 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 16 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	43.9%	+6.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	31.3%	24.3%	+6.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	25.0%	14.8%	+10.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.8%	45.4%	-1.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	6.3%	10.7%	-4.5

16 occurrences · 35,963 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random long entry (-9.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.13×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.77R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 42.6% for a random long entry. The 9.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	42.6%	-9.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	11.1%	23.5%	-12.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.1%	14.0%	-2.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	55.6%	44.1%	+11.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.1%	13.2%	-2.1

9 occurrences · 18,830 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

83.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (+39.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.82×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.44R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

The 39.8-point gap over the 43.6% random-entry rate clears the ±39.7-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 6 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	83.3%	43.6%	+39.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	16.7%	24.3%	-7.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.2%	-15.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	45.1%	-45.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.7%	11.3%	+5.3

6 occurrences · 18,516 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

25.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (-19.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.83×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.92R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 25.0% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 19.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±48.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	25.0%	44.6%	-19.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.0%	24.5%	+0.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	25.0%	14.8%	+10.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	75.0%	44.9%	+30.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.5%	-10.5

4 occurrences · 9,536 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random short entry (-11.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.05×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.59R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 44.5% for a random short entry. The 11.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	44.5%	-11.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	25.7%	-25.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.7%	-15.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	46.5%	+20.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.0%	-9.0

3 occurrences · 9,392 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (+53.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.58×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

3.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.

Summary

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	46.6%	+53.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	100.0%	26.1%	+73.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	100.0%	16.1%	+83.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	44.5%	-44.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	8.9%	-8.9

1 occurrences · 2,338 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.5% for a random short entry (+53.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

3.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 46.5% for a random short entry. The 53.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	46.5%	+53.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	100.0%	26.5%	+73.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	100.0%	15.8%	+84.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	46.9%	-46.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	6.5%	-6.5

1 occurrences · 2,207 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (-1.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.14×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.99R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.5% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 1.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 142 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.5%	43.3%	-1.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	17.6%	22.9%	-5.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	7.0%	13.2%	-6.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.7%	46.4%	-2.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.8%	10.2%	+4.5

142 occurrences · 371,185 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random short entry (-1.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.18×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.09R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.6% of the time vs 43.5% for a random short entry. The 1.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 137 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.6%	43.5%	-1.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.4%	23.3%	-2.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.4%	13.5%	-1.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.0%	46.5%	-0.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.4%	9.9%	+2.5

137 occurrences · 369,441 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

Limited sample (35). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random long entry (-1.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.19×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.18R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.9% of the time vs 43.9% for a random long entry. The 1.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 35 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.9%	43.9%	-1.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.7%	23.5%	+2.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.4%	13.6%	-2.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	37.1%	45.1%	-8.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	20.0%	11.0%	+9.0

35 occurrences · 92,926 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

Limited sample (38). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (+1.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.85×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.04R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.7% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 1.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±15.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 38 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.7%	43.7%	+1.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.7%	23.8%	-0.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.2%	14.0%	-0.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	45.8%	+4.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	5.3%	10.5%	-5.3

38 occurrences · 92,675 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

56.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (+12.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.19×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.47R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 56.3% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry. The 12.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±24.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 16 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	56.3%	43.4%	+12.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	37.5%	23.4%	+14.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	25.0%	13.8%	+11.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	25.0%	44.4%	-19.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	18.8%	12.2%	+6.6

16 occurrences · 34,385 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (-10.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.13×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.88R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry. The 10.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±21.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 21 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	43.8%	-10.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	14.3%	24.3%	-10.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	4.8%	14.4%	-9.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	57.1%	45.2%	+11.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.5%	11.0%	-1.4

21 occurrences · 33,999 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random long entry (-3.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.99×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.71R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 43.1% for a random long entry. The 3.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±30.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 10 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.0%	43.1%	-3.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	10.0%	23.2%	-13.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	14.1%	-14.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	43.3%	+6.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.0%	13.7%	-3.7

10 occurrences · 17,693 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.9%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-0.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.84×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.59R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.9% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 0.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 7 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.9%	43.3%	-0.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	42.9%	24.4%	+18.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	28.6%	15.3%	+13.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.9%	44.4%	-1.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.3%	12.3%	+2.0

7 occurrences · 17,912 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

25.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random long entry (-18.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.22×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.65R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 25.0% of the time vs 43.5% for a random long entry. The 18.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±48.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	25.0%	43.5%	-18.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	23.4%	-23.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	14.1%	-14.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	75.0%	45.5%	+29.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	11.0%	-11.0

4 occurrences · 9,070 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.9% for a random short entry (+5.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.34×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.24R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 44.9% for a random short entry. The 5.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±39.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	44.9%	+5.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.3%	25.5%	+7.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.7%	15.8%	+0.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	45.6%	+4.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.5%	-9.5

6 occurrences · 9,047 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random long entry (-43.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.93×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.27R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 43.8% for a random long entry. The 43.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	43.8%	-43.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	23.4%	-23.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	11.5%	-11.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	48.7%	+51.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	7.5%	-7.5

1 occurrences · 2,394 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

49.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.5% for a random long entry (+7.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.12×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.23R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 49.6% of the time vs 42.5% for a random long entry. The 7.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 113 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	49.6%	42.5%	+7.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	29.2%	23.0%	+6.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.0%	13.6%	+1.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.8%	46.8%	-7.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.6%	10.7%	-0.1

113 occurrences · 276,772 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

38.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random short entry (-4.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.30×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.86R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 38.1% of the time vs 42.4% for a random short entry. The 4.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 105 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	38.1%	42.4%	-4.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	15.2%	23.1%	-7.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	8.6%	13.7%	-5.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	53.3%	47.0%	+6.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.6%	10.7%	-2.1

105 occurrences · 276,314 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

34.6%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (-8.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.39×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.98R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 34.6% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry. The 8.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±19.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 26 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 26 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	34.6%	43.4%	-8.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	19.2%	23.4%	-4.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.4%	13.9%	+1.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	53.8%	45.5%	+8.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.5%	11.1%	+0.4

26 occurrences · 69,030 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

38.5%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (-5.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.61×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 38.5% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 5.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±19.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 26 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	38.5%	43.6%	-5.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.9%	23.6%	+3.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.5%	14.0%	-2.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.2%	45.2%	+1.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	15.4%	11.3%	+4.1

26 occurrences · 68,562 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.8%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.8% for a random long entry (+1.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.09R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.8% of the time vs 42.8% for a random long entry. The 1.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±24.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 16 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.8%	42.8%	+1.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.0%	23.8%	+1.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.5%	14.6%	-2.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	37.5%	45.4%	-7.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	18.8%	11.9%	+6.9

16 occurrences · 25,869 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (+6.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.31×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.32R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 6.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±39.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	43.7%	+6.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	16.7%	23.7%	-7.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.7%	14.2%	+2.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	33.3%	44.5%	-11.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.7%	11.8%	+4.9

6 occurrences · 25,622 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random long entry (-9.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.08×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.94R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 42.4% for a random long entry. The 9.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	42.4%	-9.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	11.1%	24.0%	-12.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.2%	-15.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.4%	45.4%	-0.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	22.2%	12.3%	+10.0

9 occurrences · 13,514 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-10.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.91×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.28R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 10.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	43.3%	-10.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.3%	24.2%	+9.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	33.3%	15.2%	+18.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	44.1%	+22.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	12.6%	-12.6

3 occurrences · 13,523 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random long entry (+56.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

2.06×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.19R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 44.0% for a random long entry. The 56.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	44.0%	+56.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	24.4%	-24.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.0%	-15.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	46.4%	-46.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.6%	-9.6

1 occurrences · 6,841 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+6.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.96×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.81R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 6.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±68.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	43.3%	+6.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	50.0%	25.0%	+25.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	50.0%	14.7%	+35.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	46.5%	-46.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	50.0%	10.1%	+39.9

2 occurrences · 6,967 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Crab

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.1% for a random long entry (+3.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.57×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.90R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 46.1% for a random long entry. The 3.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±69.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	46.1%	+3.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	27.3%	-27.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.5%	-15.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	47.0%	+3.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	6.9%	-6.9

2 occurrences · 1,688 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

The Crab, another of Scott Carney’s patterns, is the most extended structure in the harmonic family, a five-point shape from X to A to B to C to D. The signature is the completion: D extends to 1.618 of the whole X-to-A leg, reached through a very long C-to-D projection, a deep overshoot far beyond the origin before the turn.

How to spot it

A clear X-to-A leg, then a B point that retraces a moderate 0.382 to 0.618 of XA.
C retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of AB, and D projects a very long 2.618 to 3.618 of BC.
D extends to 1.618 of XA, well past the origin X. All four ratios hold at once.
The structure completes at D, a swing low in an uptrend (a buy) or a swing high in a downtrend (a sell).

The chart above marks the X, A, B, C, D points on a real occurrence, with the ratio of each leg.

Why it matters

A Crab completes beyond its origin, not inside it. The C-to-D leg stretches price well past where the move began, so D marks an overshoot rather than a measured pullback. It is read as a level to fade: the point where a stretched move exhausts and snaps back. The far-away completion gives a precise level to fade, and the reversal from a true Crab can be the sharpest of any harmonic pattern.

That places it among the extension harmonics, alongside the Butterfly, where D pushes past the origin. The retracement harmonics, the Gartley and Bat, are the opposite case: their completion sits inside the prior move, so they buy a dip rather than fade an overshoot. The Crab is the most extended member of the family, and that reach is also its risk. It asks a trade to fade an already-violent move, which is exactly when trends can keep accelerating, so a Crab that does not turn leaves the trade short a runaway rally or long a falling knife.

The honest question is not whether the shape can be drawn on a chart, it always can after the fact, but whether a completion actually leads anywhere. That is what the data below measures.

Does it actually work?

A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the question is not “did it win” but “how much room did the move offer before the structure was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.

For each completion we measure the room price offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random swing pivot of the same kind would have done. A Crab that turns up from a swing low is judged against ordinary swing lows; one that turns down from a swing high, against ordinary swing highs. When the completion offers more room more often than those random swings, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.

Harmonic structures are rare, so read the sample size in view. On the slower timeframes a Crab completes only single digits of times, or not at all, while the faster timeframes give a larger sample. Thin samples are flagged for you.

How we measured it

Entry is the close of the bar that confirms the D point, the earliest a trader could act without hindsight.
One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close to D itself, the swing extreme the structure completes at. A move back through D says the pattern has failed.
We follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before D gave way.
The comparison is a random swing pivot of the same side, which already sits at a turning point with a tight stop. That keeps it apples-to-apples: the question is whether a Crab swing runs further than an ordinary swing of the same shape, not whether a tight stop flatters the numbers.

What this page does not cover

A profit target. Harmonic tradition puts one at a Fibonacci retracement, but where you take profit is a strategy choice, so this measures only the room the structure tends to offer.
A trend filter, or confluence with support, resistance, or a higher-timeframe level, which traders normally use to weight a completion.
A guarantee. A valid shape on the chart is a setup, not a certainty. What it tends to do next is exactly what the numbers above describe.

FAQ

Do harmonic patterns like the Crab actually work?

Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed Crab by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.

What is the Crab pattern success rate?

There is no single reliable figure, and the often-cited round-number rates rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or test period, and almost never state what target and stop they assume. Rather than quote folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape. The Crab is one of the rarer structures, so read that comparison alongside the count shown for each market and timeframe.

How is the Crab defined here?

It is a five-point XABCD structure where B retraces 0.382 to 0.618 of XA, C retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of AB, D projects 2.618 to 3.618 of BC, and D extends to 1.618 of XA, all holding at once within a 5% tolerance. Pivots use 3 bars on each side and are confirmed before they count.

Sample Crab Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 10, 2026	Bullish	22.25	1.22R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	8.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 11, 2026	Bearish	58.5	1.78R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 26, 2026	Bearish	9	0.14R	Stopped
Sep 9, 2025	Bearish	28.25	0.11R	Stopped
Sep 4, 2025	Bullish	17.75	1.97R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 29, 2025	Bullish	23.75	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2025	Bullish	17.25	2.91R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 10, 2025	Bullish	19.25	0.51R	Stopped
May 29, 2024	Bullish	9.75	1.72R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 7, 2024	Bearish	9.5	2.16R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 10, 2024	Bullish	16.5	0.59R	Stopped
Jan 3, 2024	Bullish	2.5	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 26, 2023	Bearish	5.75	1.87R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 5, 2023	Bullish	30.5	0.24R	Stopped
May 1, 2023	Bullish	10	2.60R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 1, 2023	Bullish	5.5	1.64R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 30, 2022	Bearish	16.75	1.48R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 1, 2022	Bullish	5.25	1.24R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 13, 2022	Bullish	21.75	2.55R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (18)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 16, 2026	Bearish	94.5	0.82R	Flat
Oct 30, 2024	Bullish	18.5	2.47R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 4, 2024	Bullish	58.25	0.92R	Stopped
Feb 27, 2024	Bullish	49.25	0.86R	Flat
Mar 8, 2021	Bullish	43.25	0.91R	Stopped
Nov 8, 2018	Bullish	9.75	1.36R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 29, 2018	Bearish	32.75	0.47R	Stopped
Oct 18, 2018	Bullish	17.25	1.55R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 4, 2015	Bearish	7.5	0.63R	Stopped
Jul 23, 2015	Bullish	4.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 9, 2015	Bearish	18.75	0.99R	Flat
Jan 17, 2014	Bullish	7	1.18R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 2, 2011	Bullish	4.25	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 29, 2010	Bearish	3	0.25R	Stopped
May 27, 2010	Bearish	6.5	0.73R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2009	Bearish	6.75	1.85R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 17, 2008	Bullish	18	0.36R	Stopped
Jan 14, 2008	Bearish	16.25	0.06R	Stopped

Sample Crab Completions (10)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 26, 2026	Bearish	45.25	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 31, 2025	Bearish	63	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 9, 2022	Bullish	140.25	0.21R	Stopped
Dec 18, 2019	Bearish	7.75	2.77R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 20, 2018	Bearish	20	0.23R	Stopped
May 8, 2017	Bearish	10.5	0.67R	Stopped
Nov 17, 2015	Bearish	13.75	2.24R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 26, 2013	Bearish	9	0.64R	Stopped
Dec 3, 2012	Bearish	7.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 13, 2010	Bearish	4	2.19R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (4)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 30, 2024	Bearish	61.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 3, 2020	Bearish	70.25	1.28R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 4, 2019	Bearish	4.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 26, 2012	Bullish	11.25	0.67R	Stopped

Sample Crab Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 11, 2026	Bearish	17.5	1.30R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 25, 2025	Bearish	4.75	0.11R	Stopped
Oct 17, 2025	Bearish	1.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 19, 2025	Bullish	2.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 8, 2025	Bullish	4	1.06R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 27, 2025	Bearish	1	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 24, 2025	Bearish	1.25	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 27, 2025	Bearish	2	0.00R	Stopped
May 15, 2025	Bearish	3.25	1.54R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2025	Bullish	9.25	1.11R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 21, 2025	Bullish	2	2.63R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 25, 2024	Bullish	6.25	0.36R	Flat
May 17, 2024	Bearish	2	0.50R	Stopped
May 3, 2024	Bullish	3.25	2.38R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 8, 2024	Bullish	2.25	2.33R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 2, 2024	Bullish	4	1.50R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 27, 2023	Bullish	2.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 28, 2023	Bullish	3.75	1.93R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 30, 2023	Bearish	2.5	0.50R	Stopped
May 25, 2023	Bearish	5.5	0.82R	Flat

Sample Crab Completions (16)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 24, 2024	Bullish	6.75	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 21, 2023	Bearish	6.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 26, 2021	Bullish	5.25	0.05R	Stopped
Mar 20, 2020	Bullish	7	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 26, 2020	Bullish	23	0.10R	Stopped
Feb 10, 2020	Bearish	0.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 20, 2019	Bullish	2.75	0.55R	Stopped
Jan 8, 2019	Bearish	11	2.07R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 4, 2018	Bullish	8.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 28, 2016	Bearish	2.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 12, 2013	Bullish	1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 3, 2011	Bearish	1.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 21, 2010	Bullish	2	0.50R	Stopped
Jan 12, 2010	Bullish	0.75	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 1, 2008	Bullish	1	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2008	Bullish	4	1.63R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (6)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 14, 2025	Bearish	10.5	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 30, 2023	Bullish	4.25	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 13, 2023	Bearish	18.75	0.24R	Stopped
Apr 25, 2014	Bullish	6	0.33R	Stopped
Aug 25, 2008	Bullish	4.75	0.37R	Stopped
Jul 1, 2008	Bullish	9.25	0.89R	Stopped

Sample Crab Completions (3)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
May 31, 2019	Bullish	18	0.03R	Stopped
Sep 1, 2010	Bearish	2.25	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 23, 2010	Bullish	2.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (3)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 23, 2019	Bearish	3.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 27, 2017	Bullish	19.5	1.50R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 30, 2011	Bearish	2.25	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Crab Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 11, 2026	Bullish	1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 26, 2026	Bullish	6.5	0.37R	Stopped
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	2.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2026	Bullish	2.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 6, 2026	Bullish	12.9	1.64R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 4, 2026	Bullish	10.1	0.84R	Flat
Jan 28, 2026	Bullish	7.3	0.66R	Stopped
Jan 13, 2026	Bearish	2.6	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 23, 2025	Bullish	2.3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 11, 2025	Bearish	1.5	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 9, 2025	Bearish	4.2	1.48R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 3, 2025	Bearish	2.2	1.64R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 2, 2025	Bullish	6	1.15R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 1, 2025	Bearish	0.8	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 27, 2025	Bullish	3	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 14, 2025	Bearish	3.8	0.87R	Stopped
Oct 20, 2025	Bullish	5.3	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 17, 2025	Bullish	5.9	1.71R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 30, 2025	Bullish	7.9	0.13R	Flat
Sep 18, 2025	Bullish	0.3	2.33R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Dec 31, 2025	Bearish	5.8	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 17, 2025	Bullish	35.4	0.03R	Stopped
Sep 30, 2025	Bearish	0.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 8, 2025	Bearish	4.8	1.10R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 29, 2025	Bearish	2.9	1.93R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 4, 2025	Bullish	4	0.30R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2025	Bullish	11.9	0.71R	Flat
Jan 9, 2025	Bearish	2.7	0.44R	Flat
Nov 7, 2024	Bullish	2.2	2.09R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 2, 2024	Bullish	1.5	1.53R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 9, 2024	Bullish	1.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 30, 2024	Bearish	1.5	0.67R	Stopped
May 9, 2024	Bearish	1.4	0.50R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2024	Bearish	1.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2024	Bearish	6.1	0.95R	Flat
Jul 17, 2023	Bearish	2.4	0.54R	Stopped
Sep 1, 2022	Bullish	1.3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 31, 2022	Bullish	1.9	0.74R	Stopped
Jul 14, 2022	Bullish	2.1	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 1, 2022	Bullish	0.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 4, 2026	Bearish	25.2	0.21R	Stopped
Aug 20, 2025	Bearish	4	0.63R	Stopped
Jan 11, 2023	Bullish	2.7	0.74R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2022	Bullish	11.3	0.19R	Stopped
Apr 19, 2021	Bearish	1.7	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 20, 2021	Bearish	1.5	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 28, 2019	Bearish	1	1.80R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 15, 2019	Bearish	3.8	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 19, 2019	Bullish	2.9	0.07R	Stopped
Jul 4, 2019	Bullish	1.4	0.29R	Stopped
Dec 6, 2018	Bearish	1.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 17, 2018	Bearish	2.5	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 1, 2018	Bullish	3	0.77R	Stopped
Jul 31, 2018	Bullish	2.9	2.28R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 3, 2018	Bullish	2.1	0.19R	Stopped
Jul 13, 2017	Bearish	1.1	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 12, 2016	Bullish	1.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 22, 2015	Bullish	2.4	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2015	Bearish	1.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 8, 2014	Bullish	1.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (15)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jun 6, 2025	Bullish	16.1	0.04R	Stopped
May 19, 2025	Bearish	30.9	0.42R	Flat
May 16, 2022	Bullish	19.5	1.05R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 30, 2020	Bullish	9.6	0.47R	Stopped
Mar 10, 2020	Bullish	12.8	0.45R	Flat
Dec 6, 2018	Bearish	3.9	1.15R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 31, 2017	Bearish	1.8	2.89R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 23, 2016	Bearish	2.2	1.32R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 29, 2015	Bullish	1.4	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 16, 2014	Bearish	5	1.20R	Ran ≥1R
May 27, 2014	Bullish	1.7	0.24R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2014	Bearish	3.3	1.64R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 30, 2012	Bullish	4.7	0.23R	Stopped
Mar 19, 2012	Bullish	3.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 13, 2011	Bullish	3.6	1.50R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (7)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 15, 2022	Bearish	3.4	0.32R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2021	Bullish	15.5	0.48R	Stopped
Jul 23, 2019	Bullish	3.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 26, 2017	Bullish	5.2	0.13R	Stopped
Jul 1, 2011	Bullish	4.9	0.06R	Stopped
Dec 3, 2010	Bearish	2.4	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 28, 2010	Bearish	4.5	1.44R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (2)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
May 24, 2024	Bullish	7.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 11, 2014	Bearish	9.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 21, 2026	Bearish	0.1	0.30R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	0.48	0.44R	Flat
Mar 31, 2026	Bullish	0.34	1.88R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	0.2	0.30R	Stopped
Mar 5, 2026	Bullish	0.28	2.57R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	0.04	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 20, 2026	Bullish	0.06	0.33R	Stopped
Jan 8, 2026	Bearish	0.07	0.43R	Stopped
Dec 5, 2025	Bearish	0.09	1.22R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 29, 2025	Bullish	0.03	0.67R	Stopped
Sep 29, 2025	Bearish	0.06	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 23, 2025	Bearish	0.04	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 22, 2025	Bearish	0.03	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 28, 2025	Bearish	0.05	0.20R	Stopped
Jul 21, 2025	Bullish	0.04	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 7, 2025	Bearish	0.09	0.89R	Stopped
Jun 25, 2025	Bearish	0.2	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 6, 2025	Bullish	0.06	0.50R	Stopped
Mar 19, 2025	Bearish	0.06	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 5, 2025	Bullish	0.12	0.58R	Stopped

Sample Crab Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 12, 2026	Bearish	0.14	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 2, 2026	Bearish	0.27	0.07R	Stopped
Aug 13, 2025	Bearish	0.25	1.28R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 23, 2025	Bearish	0.12	0.42R	Stopped
May 1, 2025	Bearish	0.14	2.86R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 6, 2024	Bullish	0.18	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 15, 2024	Bearish	0.05	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 7, 2024	Bearish	0.03	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 23, 2024	Bullish	0.18	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 16, 2024	Bullish	0.14	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 27, 2023	Bearish	0.18	1.28R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 2, 2023	Bullish	0.22	0.32R	Flat
Jan 13, 2023	Bearish	0.31	0.71R	Stopped
Sep 27, 2022	Bearish	0.08	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 17, 2022	Bullish	0.33	0.55R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2022	Bullish	0.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 2, 2022	Bearish	0.92	0.02R	Stopped
Feb 21, 2022	Bearish	0.29	1.24R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 17, 2021	Bullish	0.13	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 10, 2021	Bullish	0.27	0.93R	Stopped

Sample Crab Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 3, 2026	Bullish	0.87	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 2, 2024	Bullish	0.21	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 2, 2023	Bullish	0.13	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 27, 2022	Bearish	0.41	1.98R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 12, 2022	Bearish	0.48	0.50R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2022	Bullish	0.93	1.98R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 29, 2021	Bearish	0.29	0.34R	Stopped
Jul 21, 2021	Bearish	0.29	0.38R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2021	Bullish	0.33	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 4, 2020	Bullish	0.47	2.38R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 4, 2020	Bearish	0.49	1.22R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 30, 2020	Bullish	0.17	0.00R	Stopped
May 26, 2020	Bearish	0.61	1.34R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 12, 2019	Bearish	0.16	0.38R	Stopped
Nov 29, 2018	Bearish	0.37	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 26, 2018	Bullish	0.03	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 7, 2018	Bullish	0.34	0.09R	Flat
Jan 15, 2018	Bearish	0.26	0.42R	Stopped
Nov 1, 2017	Bullish	0.22	1.18R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 4, 2017	Bearish	0.27	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Crab Completions (14)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Oct 2, 2024	Bullish	0.47	1.77R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 19, 2024	Bearish	0.38	0.92R	Stopped
Feb 21, 2024	Bearish	0.24	0.17R	Stopped
Jan 26, 2023	Bearish	0.77	0.78R	Flat
Mar 25, 2022	Bullish	1.89	0.11R	Stopped
Dec 20, 2021	Bullish	0.57	0.40R	Stopped
Dec 24, 2020	Bearish	0.3	2.53R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 30, 2018	Bullish	0.28	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 30, 2017	Bullish	0.27	2.11R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 19, 2017	Bullish	0.06	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 16, 2017	Bearish	0.11	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 12, 2013	Bearish	0.63	0.73R	Stopped
Mar 4, 2013	Bullish	0.19	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 11, 2009	Bearish	0.89	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (10)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Sep 23, 2025	Bearish	0.21	2.05R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 9, 2024	Bullish	1.8	1.28R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 3, 2022	Bearish	1.61	0.06R	Stopped
Oct 26, 2020	Bullish	0.35	0.34R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2020	Bullish	0.85	0.05R	Stopped
Feb 8, 2019	Bullish	0.47	0.94R	Stopped
Oct 5, 2017	Bearish	0.52	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 12, 2013	Bearish	0.44	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 5, 2012	Bearish	1.33	1.92R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 29, 2008	Bearish	0.95	0.44R	Stopped

Sample Crab Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 14, 2026	Bullish	0.006	1.33R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 13, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.67R	Stopped
Feb 6, 2026	Bearish	0.03	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 22, 2026	Bearish	0.057	1.19R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 9, 2026	Bearish	0.003	0.67R	Stopped
Dec 30, 2025	Bearish	0.003	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 15, 2025	Bullish	0.005	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 4, 2025	Bearish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 28, 2025	Bearish	0.007	0.14R	Stopped
Nov 20, 2025	Bullish	0.004	1.25R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 13, 2025	Bearish	0.002	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 22, 2025	Bullish	0.001	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 13, 2025	Bullish	0.005	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 3, 2025	Bearish	0.014	2.57R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 3, 2025	Bearish	0.003	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 27, 2025	Bearish	0.011	1.27R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 22, 2025	Bullish	0.005	0.40R	Stopped
Jan 15, 2025	Bullish	0.005	2.80R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 6, 2025	Bullish	0.005	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 4, 2024	Bearish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Crab Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 14, 2026	Bullish	0.009	0.44R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2026	Bearish	0.005	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 16, 2026	Bullish	0.006	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 22, 2026	Bullish	0.097	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 22, 2026	Bearish	0.038	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 2, 2025	Bearish	0.038	0.03R	Stopped
Feb 12, 2025	Bearish	0.009	2.89R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 7, 2025	Bullish	0.041	0.61R	Flat
Dec 18, 2024	Bearish	0.025	0.92R	Stopped
Jan 3, 2024	Bullish	0.009	0.22R	Stopped
Dec 20, 2023	Bearish	0.01	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 23, 2023	Bullish	0.004	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 1, 2023	Bullish	0.016	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 15, 2022	Bearish	0.029	2.48R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 7, 2022	Bearish	0.082	2.01R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 13, 2022	Bullish	0.031	1.32R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 25, 2021	Bullish	0.093	1.68R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 9, 2021	Bullish	0.053	0.28R	Stopped
Jun 30, 2021	Bullish	0.014	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 29, 2020	Bearish	0.008	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (18)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Aug 24, 2023	Bullish	0.027	0.04R	Stopped
Jul 12, 2023	Bullish	0.024	1.71R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 21, 2022	Bullish	0.112	1.08R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 10, 2022	Bearish	0.087	1.56R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 29, 2022	Bullish	0.084	0.44R	Stopped
Oct 8, 2021	Bullish	0.115	0.28R	Stopped
Oct 6, 2020	Bearish	0.007	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 28, 2020	Bullish	0.016	0.88R	Stopped
Dec 24, 2019	Bullish	0.002	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 19, 2019	Bearish	0.038	0.55R	Flat
Aug 25, 2017	Bullish	0.006	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 27, 2017	Bullish	0.018	0.22R	Flat
Jul 18, 2016	Bearish	0.007	0.86R	Stopped
Mar 14, 2014	Bearish	0.019	1.74R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 24, 2013	Bullish	0.016	0.00R	Stopped
May 13, 2013	Bullish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 10, 2010	Bullish	0.007	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 28, 2010	Bullish	0.035	2.66R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (11)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 20, 2025	Bullish	0.007	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 2, 2024	Bearish	0.006	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 15, 2023	Bullish	0.048	0.06R	Stopped
Feb 8, 2023	Bullish	0.042	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2022	Bullish	0.056	0.82R	Stopped
Mar 1, 2021	Bullish	0.034	0.88R	Flat
Aug 13, 2020	Bearish	0.013	0.85R	Stopped
May 28, 2020	Bullish	0.023	0.30R	Stopped
Mar 9, 2015	Bullish	0.008	1.75R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 30, 2014	Bearish	0.01	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 5, 2013	Bullish	0.027	2.81R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (2)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Aug 24, 2011	Bearish	0.04	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 20, 2009	Bullish	0.037	1.19R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Crab Completions (2)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Sep 10, 2020	0.029	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 9, 2019	0.068	1.79R	Ran ≥1R

Sample backtests (6)

Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.

NQ 15m · Crab · 2020-2024

Crab · balanced

Win rate: 56.25%
Profit factor: 0.92
Max drawdown: 3.39%

16 trades View →

NQ 5m · Crab · 2020-2024

Crab · balanced

Win rate: 46.43%
Profit factor: 0.89
Max drawdown: 3.65%

28 trades View →

ES 5m · Crab · 2020-2024

Crab · balanced

Win rate: 55.56%
Profit factor: 0.74
Max drawdown: 2.47%

18 trades View →

ES 15m · Crab · 2020-2024

Crab · balanced

Win rate: 42.86%
Profit factor: 0.43
Max drawdown: 1.54%

7 trades View →

GC 15m · Crab · 2020-2024

Crab · balanced

Win rate: 25.00%
Profit factor: 0.37
Max drawdown: 2.11%

4 trades View →

GC 5m · Crab · 2020-2024

Crab · balanced

Win rate: 33.33%
Profit factor: 0.27
Max drawdown: 3.35%

24 trades View →

Backtest this pattern

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