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Pattern Detail

Butterfly

Q: Do harmonic patterns like the Butterfly actually work?

Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed Butterfly by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.

Q: What is the Butterfly pattern success rate?

There is no single reliable figure, and the often-cited round-number rates rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or test period, and almost never state what target and stop they assume. Rather than quote folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape. The tabs show that comparison across five markets and seven timeframes.

Q: How is the Butterfly defined here?

It is a five-point XABCD structure where B retraces 0.786 of XA, C retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of AB, D projects 1.618 to 2.24 of BC, and D extends to 1.272 to 1.618 of XA, beyond the origin, all holding at once within a 5% tolerance. Pivots use 3 bars on each side and are confirmed before they count.

An extension pattern that completes beyond the origin, fading exhaustion as price prints a fresh extreme.

B = 0.786 of XA
C = 0.382-0.886 of AB
D = 1.618-2.24 of BC
D = 1.272-1.618 of XA

Idealized bullish Butterfly. It completes at a low and projects a move up.

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random long entry (-0.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.12×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.9% of the time vs 44.4% for a random long entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 269 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.9%	44.4%	-0.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.5%	22.6%	+1.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.5%	12.5%	-1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.4%	45.9%	-0.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.8%	9.7%	+1.1

269 occurrences · 136,704 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

47.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (+2.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.00×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.15R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 47.1% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry. The 2.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 261 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	47.1%	44.6%	+2.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.4%	24.2%	-0.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.3%	14.1%	-1.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.1%	47.6%	-0.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	5.7%	7.8%	-2.0

261 occurrences · 136,054 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

Limited sample (45). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (+0.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.98×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.22R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.4% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 0.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 45 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.4%	44.1%	+0.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.9%	22.7%	+6.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.8%	13.1%	+4.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	37.8%	43.4%	-5.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	17.8%	12.5%	+5.3

45 occurrences · 30,293 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

Limited sample (54). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

57.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random short entry (+13.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.06×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.38R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 57.4% of the time vs 44.3% for a random short entry. The 13.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 54 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	57.4%	44.3%	+13.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.3%	24.8%	+8.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.7%	15.2%	+1.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.7%	47.0%	-6.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	1.9%	8.8%	-6.9

54 occurrences · 29,992 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

66.7%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (+22.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.00×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.24R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 66.7% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 22.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 9 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	66.7%	44.1%	+22.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.2%	24.7%	-2.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	22.2%	15.7%	+6.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	22.2%	42.7%	-20.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.1%	13.2%	-2.1

9 occurrences · 10,656 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

27.8%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.0% for a random short entry (-15.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.00×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.72R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 27.8% of the time vs 43.0% for a random short entry. The 15.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±22.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 18 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 18 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	27.8%	43.0%	-15.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	5.6%	25.9%	-20.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	17.0%	-17.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	55.6%	47.1%	+8.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.7%	9.9%	+6.8

18 occurrences · 10,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

55.6%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (+11.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.80×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.38R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 55.6% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 11.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	55.6%	44.5%	+11.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	44.4%	24.1%	+20.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.1%	14.6%	-3.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.4%	43.5%	+1.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	12.0%	-12.0

9 occurrences · 5,466 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

30.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random short entry (-14.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.60×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.73R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 30.0% of the time vs 44.0% for a random short entry. The 14.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±30.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 10 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	30.0%	44.0%	-14.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	26.3%	-26.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	17.3%	-17.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	47.6%	+2.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	20.0%	8.4%	+11.6

10 occurrences · 5,325 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.9%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 48.1% for a random long entry (-5.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.79×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.34R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.24R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.9% of the time vs 48.1% for a random long entry. The 5.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±37.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 7 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.9%	48.1%	-5.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	42.9%	27.8%	+15.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.9%	-15.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	28.6%	42.8%	-14.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	28.6%	9.1%	+19.4

7 occurrences · 2,616 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (+56.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.80×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

2.12R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

The 56.2-point gap over the 43.8% random-entry rate clears the ±48.6-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	43.8%	+56.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	50.0%	26.7%	+23.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	50.0%	17.2%	+32.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	50.6%	-50.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	5.6%	-5.6

4 occurrences · 2,611 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 51.5% for a random long entry (-1.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.10×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.17R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.25R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 51.5% for a random long entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±69.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	51.5%	-1.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	50.0%	27.9%	+22.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	13.2%	-13.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	38.1%	+11.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.4%	-10.4

2 occurrences · 423 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.1% for a random short entry (-40.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.82×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.75R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 40.1% for a random short entry. The 40.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	40.1%	-40.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	24.9%	-24.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.2%	-16.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	56.6%	+43.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

1 occurrences · 401 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 49.2% for a random long entry (-49.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.51×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.27R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 49.2% for a random long entry. The 49.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±98.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	49.2%	-49.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	23.9%	-23.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	11.8%	-11.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	39.4%	+60.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	11.4%	-11.4

1 occurrences · 439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.9% for a random short entry (-40.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.82×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.59R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 40.9% for a random short entry. The 40.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	40.9%	-40.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	23.6%	-23.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	14.4%	-14.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	55.8%	+44.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

1 occurrences · 403 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (+4.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.42×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 48.4% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 4.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 157 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.4%	44.3%	+4.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.2%	21.6%	+2.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.4%	11.6%	+1.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.9%	45.7%	-1.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	7.6%	10.0%	-2.3

157 occurrences · 100,574 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

39.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random short entry (-5.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.15×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 39.4% of the time vs 44.4% for a random short entry. The 5.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 180 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	39.4%	44.4%	-5.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.6%	23.0%	+2.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.0%	13.0%	+2.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	52.2%	47.3%	+4.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.3%	8.2%	+0.1

180 occurrences · 99,273 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

Limited sample (49). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (-3.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.23×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.11R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.8% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 3.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 49 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.8%	44.3%	-3.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.4%	22.4%	-2.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	12.5%	+1.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	49.0%	43.3%	+5.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.2%	12.4%	-2.2

49 occurrences · 26,201 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

Limited sample (43). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

37.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.2% for a random short entry (-7.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.78×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.98R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 37.2% of the time vs 44.2% for a random short entry. The 7.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 43 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	37.2%	44.2%	-7.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.9%	23.9%	-3.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.0%	14.4%	-0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	60.5%	46.8%	+13.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	2.3%	9.0%	-6.7

43 occurrences · 25,439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

30.8%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (-13.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.27×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.86R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 30.8% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 13.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±27.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 13 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 13 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	30.8%	44.5%	-13.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	15.4%	24.7%	-9.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.4%	15.0%	+0.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	53.8%	42.4%	+11.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	15.4%	13.1%	+2.3

13 occurrences · 9,935 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

18.8%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-24.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.73×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.57R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 18.8% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 16 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	18.8%	43.3%	-24.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	6.3%	25.5%	-19.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.4%	-16.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	75.0%	46.3%	+28.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	6.3%	10.4%	-4.1

16 occurrences · 9,497 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

16.7%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (-27.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.40×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.71R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 16.7% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 27.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±39.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 6 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	16.7%	44.3%	-27.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	16.7%	23.3%	-6.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.7%	14.2%	+2.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	43.7%	+23.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.7%	12.0%	+4.7

6 occurrences · 5,306 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

60.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (+14.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.36R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 14.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±30.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	60.0%	45.2%	+14.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.0%	26.5%	-6.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	20.0%	16.9%	+3.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.0%	46.6%	-6.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	8.2%	-8.2

10 occurrences · 5,060 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (-46.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.73×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 46.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±69.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	46.6%	-46.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	26.0%	-26.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.2%	-15.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	44.2%	+55.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.1%	-9.1

2 occurrences · 2,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

25.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (-20.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.56×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.81R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.21R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 25.0% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 20.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±34.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	25.0%	45.2%	-20.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	12.5%	28.0%	-15.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.5%	19.0%	-6.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	75.0%	49.7%	+25.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	5.1%	-5.1

8 occurrences · 2,539 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (-44.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

3.88×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 44.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	44.6%	-44.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	18.9%	-18.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	8.5%	-8.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	41.5%	+58.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	13.9%	-13.9

1 occurrences · 424 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.2% for a random short entry (+58.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.86×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

2.43R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 41.2% for a random short entry. The 58.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	41.2%	+58.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	100.0%	23.8%	+76.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.4%	-16.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	55.6%	-55.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

1 occurrences · 408 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.2% for a random long entry (-47.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.73×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.72R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 47.2% for a random long entry. The 47.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	47.2%	-47.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	21.2%	-21.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	9.6%	-9.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	39.2%	-39.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	100.0%	13.7%	+86.3

1 occurrences · 439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random short entry (+57.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.84×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

3.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 42.6% for a random short entry. The 57.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	42.6%	+57.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	100.0%	25.7%	+74.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	100.0%	16.6%	+83.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	53.9%	-53.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.5%	-3.5

1 occurrences · 397 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.9% for a random long entry (-0.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.15×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.06R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.5% of the time vs 42.9% for a random long entry. The 0.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 657 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.5%	42.9%	-0.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	19.9%	22.4%	-2.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.7%	12.8%	-2.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.0%	46.3%	-2.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.5%	10.9%	+2.7

657 occurrences · 393,642 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (-1.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.05×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.09R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.3% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 1.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 648 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.3%	43.6%	-1.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.8%	23.3%	-0.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.3%	13.5%	-0.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.7%	46.4%	-0.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.0%	10.0%	+2.0

648 occurrences · 391,020 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (-1.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.20×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.12R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.1% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 1.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 190 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.1%	43.3%	-1.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.6%	22.8%	-0.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.7%	13.0%	+0.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.3%	45.4%	+0.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.6%	11.3%	+0.3

190 occurrences · 98,903 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random short entry (+2.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.20R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.2% of the time vs 44.1% for a random short entry. The 2.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 186 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.2%	44.1%	+2.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.3%	23.8%	+1.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.7%	14.0%	+2.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.2%	45.9%	-6.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.5%	10.0%	+4.5

186 occurrences · 97,699 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

Limited sample (76). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

36.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (-6.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.06×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 36.8% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 6.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±11.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 76 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	36.8%	43.3%	-6.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	19.7%	23.2%	-3.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.5%	13.8%	-3.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.4%	44.7%	-1.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	19.7%	11.9%	+7.8

76 occurrences · 36,235 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

Limited sample (60). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

51.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random short entry (+7.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.96×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.34R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 51.7% of the time vs 43.9% for a random short entry. The 7.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±12.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 60 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	51.7%	43.9%	+7.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	30.0%	24.3%	+5.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	25.0%	14.8%	+10.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	38.3%	45.4%	-7.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.0%	10.7%	-0.7

60 occurrences · 35,963 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

Limited sample (35). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

51.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random long entry (+8.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.26×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.33R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 51.4% of the time vs 42.6% for a random long entry. The 8.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 35 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	51.4%	42.6%	+8.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	31.4%	23.5%	+8.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	20.0%	14.0%	+6.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	34.3%	44.1%	-9.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.3%	13.2%	+1.0

35 occurrences · 18,830 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

Limited sample (39). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (+2.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.86×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.22R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.2% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 2.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±15.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 39 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.2%	43.6%	+2.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.1%	24.3%	-1.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.9%	15.2%	+2.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.6%	45.1%	-1.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.3%	11.3%	-1.1

39 occurrences · 18,516 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

35.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (-9.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.74×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.89R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 35.3% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 9.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±23.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 17 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 17 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	35.3%	44.6%	-9.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	17.6%	24.5%	-6.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	5.9%	14.8%	-8.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.1%	44.9%	+2.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	17.6%	10.5%	+7.2

17 occurrences · 9,536 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

29.4%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random short entry (-15.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.58×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.85R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 29.4% of the time vs 44.5% for a random short entry. The 15.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±23.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 17 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	29.4%	44.5%	-15.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	17.6%	25.7%	-8.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	5.9%	15.7%	-9.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.1%	46.5%	+0.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	23.5%	9.0%	+14.5

17 occurrences · 9,392 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (+53.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.76×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.61R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 53.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	46.6%	+53.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.3%	26.1%	+7.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.1%	-16.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	44.5%	-44.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	8.9%	-8.9

3 occurrences · 2,338 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.5% for a random short entry (-6.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.79×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.50R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 46.5% for a random short entry. The 6.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±43.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.0%	46.5%	-6.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	40.0%	26.5%	+13.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	40.0%	15.8%	+24.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	60.0%	46.9%	+13.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	6.5%	-6.5

5 occurrences · 2,207 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 49.4% for a random long entry (+50.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.66×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

2.67R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.24R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 49.4% for a random long entry. The 50.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±98.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	49.4%	+50.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	100.0%	27.1%	+72.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.5%	-16.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	41.2%	-41.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.4%	-9.4

1 occurrences · 425 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.4% for a random short entry (-39.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.24×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.54R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 39.4% for a random short entry. The 39.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±95.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	39.4%	-39.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	21.9%	-21.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	12.7%	-12.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	50.7%	+49.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.9%	-9.9

1 occurrences · 424 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (-0.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.20×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.8% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 601 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.8%	43.3%	-0.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.3%	22.9%	-1.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.5%	13.2%	-1.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.8%	46.4%	+0.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.5%	10.2%	+0.2

601 occurrences · 371,185 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random short entry (+1.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.19×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.16R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.1% of the time vs 43.5% for a random short entry. The 1.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 623 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.1%	43.5%	+1.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.8%	23.3%	+2.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	13.5%	+0.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.5%	46.5%	-3.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.4%	9.9%	+1.5

623 occurrences · 369,441 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random long entry (-0.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.25×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.15R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.2% of the time vs 43.9% for a random long entry. The 0.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 169 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.2%	43.9%	-0.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.3%	23.5%	+0.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.4%	13.6%	+1.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.0%	45.1%	-0.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.8%	11.0%	+0.9

169 occurrences · 92,926 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (+3.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.10×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.23R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.7% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 3.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 182 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.7%	43.7%	+3.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	29.1%	23.8%	+5.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.8%	14.0%	+0.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.3%	45.8%	-3.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.0%	10.5%	+0.5

182 occurrences · 92,675 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

Limited sample (45). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (+3.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.26R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.7% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry. The 3.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 45 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.7%	43.4%	+3.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	31.1%	23.4%	+7.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.6%	13.8%	+1.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.2%	44.4%	-2.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.1%	12.2%	-1.0

45 occurrences · 34,385 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

Limited sample (50). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (+4.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.14×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.25R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 48.0% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry. The 4.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 50 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.0%	43.8%	+4.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.0%	24.3%	+1.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	20.0%	14.4%	+5.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.0%	45.2%	-3.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.0%	11.0%	-1.0

50 occurrences · 33,999 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

59.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random long entry (+16.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.92×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.41R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 59.3% of the time vs 43.1% for a random long entry. The 16.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±18.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 27 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 27 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	59.3%	43.1%	+16.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	29.6%	23.2%	+6.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.1%	14.1%	-3.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	11.1%	43.3%	-32.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	29.6%	13.7%	+16.0

27 occurrences · 17,693 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.8%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+2.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.03×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.24R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.8% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 2.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±19.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 24 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 24 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.8%	43.3%	+2.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.0%	24.4%	+0.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	20.8%	15.3%	+5.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	37.5%	44.4%	-6.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.7%	12.3%	+4.4

24 occurrences · 17,912 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random long entry (-3.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.85R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 43.5% for a random long entry. The 3.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±25.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 15 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 15 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.0%	43.5%	-3.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	13.3%	23.4%	-10.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	6.7%	14.1%	-7.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.7%	45.5%	+1.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.3%	11.0%	+2.4

15 occurrences · 9,070 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

57.1%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.9% for a random short entry (+12.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.27×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.50R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 57.1% of the time vs 44.9% for a random short entry. The 12.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±26.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 14 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 14 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	57.1%	44.9%	+12.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	42.9%	25.5%	+17.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	35.7%	15.8%	+19.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	35.7%	45.6%	-9.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	7.1%	9.5%	-2.4

14 occurrences · 9,047 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random long entry (+6.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.50×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 43.8% for a random long entry. The 6.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±68.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	43.8%	+6.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	50.0%	23.4%	+26.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	11.5%	-11.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	48.7%	+1.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	7.5%	-7.5

2 occurrences · 2,394 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

60.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (+15.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.93×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.36R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry. The 15.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±43.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	60.0%	44.6%	+15.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	40.0%	25.5%	+14.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	20.0%	15.0%	+5.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.0%	48.6%	-8.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	6.8%	-6.8

5 occurrences · 2,319 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.8% for a random short entry (+59.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.78×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.01R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 40.8% for a random short entry. The 59.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±96.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	40.8%	+59.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	20.4%	-20.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	13.1%	-13.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	49.5%	-49.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.7%	-9.7

1 occurrences · 412 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.5% for a random long entry (-0.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.21×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.3% of the time vs 42.5% for a random long entry. The 0.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 418 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.3%	42.5%	-0.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.0%	23.0%	-1.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.0%	13.6%	-1.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.5%	46.8%	-3.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.1%	10.7%	+3.4

418 occurrences · 276,772 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

47.4%

Reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random short entry (+5.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.16×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.11R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room 47.4% of the time vs 42.4% for a random short entry — a 5.0-point gap, wider than the ±4.9-point margin of error from chance, and it holds across the sample. A real, if modest, tendency to offer more room than the market alone.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	47.4%	42.4%	+5.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.7%	23.1%	+0.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.6%	13.7%	+1.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.2%	47.0%	-3.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.4%	10.7%	-1.3

384 occurrences · 276,314 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

52.4%

Fragile

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (+9.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.08×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.25R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

The 9.0-point gap over the 43.4% random-entry rate clears the ±8.7-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	52.4%	43.4%	+9.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	27.4%	23.4%	+4.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.7%	13.9%	+3.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	35.5%	45.5%	-10.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.1%	11.1%	+1.0

124 occurrences · 69,030 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (-3.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.14×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.11R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.3% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 3.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 119 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.3%	43.6%	-3.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.5%	23.6%	-0.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.6%	14.0%	+3.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.0%	45.2%	-3.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	17.6%	11.3%	+6.4

119 occurrences · 68,562 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

Limited sample (44). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.8% for a random long entry (+2.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.05×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.5% of the time vs 42.8% for a random long entry. The 2.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 44 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.5%	42.8%	+2.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.7%	23.8%	-1.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.6%	14.6%	-1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.5%	45.4%	+0.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.1%	11.9%	-2.8

44 occurrences · 25,869 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

Limited sample (46). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

37.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (-6.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.12×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.93R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 37.0% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 6.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 46 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	37.0%	43.7%	-6.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	17.4%	23.7%	-6.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.2%	14.2%	+1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.5%	44.5%	-1.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	19.6%	11.8%	+7.8

46 occurrences · 25,622 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

32.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random long entry (-10.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.04×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 32.0% of the time vs 42.4% for a random long entry. The 10.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±19.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 25 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 25 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	32.0%	42.4%	-10.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.0%	24.0%	-0.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.0%	15.2%	+0.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	56.0%	45.4%	+10.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.0%	12.3%	-0.3

25 occurrences · 13,514 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-3.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.13×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 3.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±21.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 20 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 20 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.0%	43.3%	-3.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.0%	24.2%	-4.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.0%	15.2%	-0.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	55.0%	44.1%	+10.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	5.0%	12.6%	-7.6

20 occurrences · 13,523 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random long entry (-10.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.94×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.62R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 44.0% for a random long entry. The 10.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	44.0%	-10.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	24.4%	-24.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	15.0%	-15.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	46.4%	+20.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.6%	-9.6

9 occurrences · 6,841 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.9%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-0.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.82×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.18R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.9% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 0.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.9%	43.3%	-0.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.6%	25.0%	+3.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	14.7%	-0.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	57.1%	46.5%	+10.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.1%	-10.1

7 occurrences · 6,967 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

66.7%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.1% for a random long entry (+20.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.82×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.52R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 66.7% of the time vs 46.1% for a random long entry. The 20.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	66.7%	46.1%	+20.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.3%	27.3%	+6.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	33.3%	15.5%	+17.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	33.3%	47.0%	-13.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	6.9%	-6.9

3 occurrences · 1,688 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

57.1%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+13.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.88×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.25R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 57.1% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 13.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	57.1%	43.3%	+13.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.6%	22.3%	+6.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	12.5%	+1.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.9%	48.0%	-5.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	8.7%	-8.7

7 occurrences · 1,722 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Butterfly

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random short entry (+56.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.71×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

3.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 43.1% for a random short entry. The 56.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	43.1%	+56.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	100.0%	19.0%	+81.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	100.0%	11.8%	+88.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	46.5%	-46.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.4%	-10.4

1 occurrences · 415 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

The Butterfly, credited to Bryce Gilmore and Larry Pesavento, is an extension pattern. It is a five-point structure, X to A to B to C to D, defined by Fibonacci ratios between the legs. The signature is the completion: D extends to a 1.272 to 1.618 extension of the whole X-to-A leg, beyond the origin X.

How to spot it

A clear X-to-A trend leg, then a sequence of swings that pull back against it.
B retraces 0.786 of XA, C retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of AB, and D projects 1.618 to 2.24 of BC.
D lands at a 1.272 to 1.618 extension of XA, beyond the origin X. All four ratios hold at once.
The structure completes at D, a swing low in an uptrend (a buy) or a swing high in a downtrend (a sell).

The chart above marks the X, A, B, C, D points on a real occurrence, with the ratio of each leg.

Why it matters

A Butterfly is a bet on exhaustion at a fresh extreme. The X-to-A move is the trend leg, and the swings after it stretch past the prior origin into a measured extension, where the move is expected to run out of buyers or sellers and snap back. Because D pushes beyond X, the Butterfly fades an overstretched move rather than buying a dip, and the entry leans against the new extreme rather than joining it.

That places it among the extension harmonics, alongside the Crab, where the completion sits beyond the origin. The retracement harmonics, the Gartley and Bat, are the opposite case: D stays short of X, so they buy a dip inside the prior move rather than fade a new high or low. The Butterfly is the counter-trend member of the family, which is also where it is dangerous: a Butterfly that keeps extending becomes a trend the position is now against, so the stop matters.

The honest question is not whether the shape can be drawn on a chart, it always can after the fact, but whether a completion actually leads anywhere. That is what the data below measures.

Does it actually work?

A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the question is not “did it win” but “how much room did the move offer before the structure was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.

For each completion we measure the room price offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random swing pivot of the same kind would have done. A Butterfly that turns up from a swing low is judged against ordinary swing lows; one that turns down from a swing high, against ordinary swing highs. When the completion offers more room more often than those random swings, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.

Harmonic structures are rare, so read the sample size in view. On the slower timeframes a Butterfly completes only single digits of times, or not at all, while the faster timeframes give a larger sample. Thin samples are flagged for you.

How we measured it

Entry is the close of the bar that confirms the D point, the earliest a trader could act without hindsight.
One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close to D itself, the swing extreme the structure completes at. A move back through D says the pattern has failed.
We follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before D gave way.
The comparison is a random swing pivot of the same side, which already sits at a turning point with a tight stop. That keeps it apples-to-apples: the question is whether a Butterfly swing runs further than an ordinary swing of the same shape, not whether a tight stop flatters the numbers.

What this page does not cover

A profit target. Harmonic tradition puts one at a Fibonacci retracement, but where you take profit is a strategy choice, so this measures only the room the structure tends to offer.
A trend filter, or confluence with support, resistance, or a higher-timeframe level, which traders normally use to weight a completion.
A guarantee. A valid shape on the chart is a setup, not a certainty. What it tends to do next is exactly what the numbers above describe.

FAQ

Do harmonic patterns like the Butterfly actually work?

Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed Butterfly by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.

What is the Butterfly pattern success rate?

There is no single reliable figure, and the often-cited round-number rates rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or test period, and almost never state what target and stop they assume. Rather than quote folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape. The tabs show that comparison across five markets and seven timeframes.

How is the Butterfly defined here?

It is a five-point XABCD structure where B retraces 0.786 of XA, C retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of AB, D projects 1.618 to 2.24 of BC, and D extends to 1.272 to 1.618 of XA, beyond the origin, all holding at once within a 5% tolerance. Pivots use 3 bars on each side and are confirmed before they count.

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	13.75	2.47R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	25.5	0.27R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	29.5	0.75R	Flat
Apr 16, 2026	Bearish	7	0.54R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2026	Bearish	21	0.02R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2026	Bearish	10.75	0.40R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	13.25	2.15R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 23, 2026	Bullish	14.5	0.29R	Stopped
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	6.75	1.15R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 24, 2026	Bullish	20	1.34R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 17, 2026	Bullish	50	0.18R	Stopped
Feb 13, 2026	Bearish	56.75	1.04R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2026	Bullish	27	0.94R	Flat
Feb 2, 2026	Bearish	15.25	1.05R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 30, 2026	Bullish	16.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 28, 2026	Bullish	33.75	0.13R	Stopped
Jan 23, 2026	Bearish	19.25	1.36R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 30, 2025	Bearish	1.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 23, 2025	Bullish	5.5	2.77R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 17, 2025	Bearish	38.5	0.15R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 13, 2026	Bearish	55	0.69R	Stopped
Nov 4, 2025	Bullish	67.5	0.28R	Stopped
Sep 9, 2025	Bullish	59.75	0.80R	Flat
Jul 29, 2025	Bullish	35.75	2.36R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 18, 2025	Bullish	100.25	0.31R	Stopped
Mar 11, 2025	Bullish	140.25	2.46R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 5, 2024	Bullish	15.5	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 1, 2024	Bearish	38.75	0.73R	Stopped
May 9, 2024	Bearish	14.5	0.26R	Stopped
May 7, 2024	Bearish	22	0.08R	Stopped
May 1, 2024	Bearish	28.75	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 15, 2024	Bullish	36	1.85R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 23, 2024	Bearish	17.5	0.94R	Stopped
Aug 2, 2023	Bullish	42.75	0.21R	Stopped
Feb 27, 2023	Bearish	15.5	1.52R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 3, 2022	Bearish	7.75	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 8, 2022	Bearish	50	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 19, 2022	Bearish	30.25	1.68R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 30, 2022	Bullish	108.25	0.24R	Stopped
Jun 3, 2022	Bullish	32	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 9, 2026	Bearish	69.25	0.74R	Stopped
Feb 15, 2024	Bearish	84.25	0.46R	Stopped
Mar 28, 2023	Bullish	38.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 16, 2023	Bearish	20	1.95R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 7, 2022	Bullish	126.75	1.50R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 28, 2022	Bearish	83	1.55R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 27, 2021	Bearish	30	0.58R	Stopped
Sep 9, 2020	Bullish	207.5	1.05R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 21, 2020	Bearish	19	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 23, 2019	Bearish	39.25	0.39R	Flat
Jul 9, 2019	Bearish	18.5	0.04R	Stopped
Dec 26, 2018	Bearish	20	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 2, 2015	Bearish	21.25	0.36R	Stopped
Feb 17, 2015	Bearish	9.5	0.50R	Flat
Sep 13, 2013	Bullish	9.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 13, 2013	Bearish	4.25	2.06R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 29, 2013	Bullish	12.5	1.26R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 9, 2011	Bearish	4	0.44R	Stopped
Aug 11, 2010	Bullish	6.25	0.04R	Stopped
Oct 19, 2009	Bearish	2.75	1.73R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (16)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Sep 29, 2025	Bearish	126.25	1.01R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 24, 2025	Bullish	82.75	0.48R	Stopped
Oct 3, 2023	Bullish	14.75	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 18, 2023	Bearish	112	0.94R	Flat
Sep 15, 2021	Bullish	51.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 27, 2021	Bearish	14.25	0.77R	Stopped
Jul 6, 2015	Bullish	28	0.24R	Stopped
Nov 10, 2014	Bearish	7.5	1.20R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 27, 2014	Bullish	20.25	2.26R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 13, 2013	Bullish	11.5	2.30R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 6, 2013	Bullish	8.25	0.52R	Stopped
Sep 12, 2012	Bullish	5.75	2.04R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 11, 2011	Bearish	6	1.75R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 4, 2010	Bearish	7.5	0.10R	Stopped
Oct 19, 2009	Bearish	4.75	0.58R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2009	Bearish	6	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (8)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 18, 2023	Bearish	128.75	1.45R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 22, 2020	Bullish	139.25	0.32R	Stopped
May 13, 2014	Bearish	12.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 27, 2014	Bullish	27.25	2.94R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 8, 2013	Bearish	12.75	1.04R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 15, 2013	Bullish	12.25	2.82R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 7, 2011	Bullish	28	0.18R	Stopped
Dec 17, 2008	Bearish	13	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (3)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
May 17, 2018	Bearish	94.25	0.75R	Stopped
Mar 21, 2011	Bullish	49.75	2.01R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 13, 2008	Bullish	63.25	0.34R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (2)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
May 17, 2018	Bearish	103.75	0.59R	Stopped
Mar 13, 2008	Bullish	76.25	0.27R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.25	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	1.5	1.17R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 20, 2026	Bullish	3.25	1.85R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	2.5	1.50R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	4	0.56R	Stopped
Mar 5, 2026	Bullish	4.5	0.28R	Stopped
Feb 3, 2026	Bearish	5.5	0.27R	Stopped
Jan 26, 2026	Bullish	2.25	0.56R	Stopped
Jan 20, 2026	Bullish	4.25	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 20, 2026	Bullish	3.75	2.27R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 16, 2026	Bullish	2	1.63R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 15, 2026	Bearish	2.75	0.82R	Stopped
Dec 15, 2025	Bearish	3.75	0.07R	Stopped
Nov 21, 2025	Bullish	3.25	1.46R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 19, 2025	Bearish	7.75	0.39R	Stopped
Sep 12, 2025	Bearish	1.5	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 11, 2025	Bearish	1.5	0.17R	Stopped
Sep 4, 2025	Bullish	1.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 2, 2025	Bearish	3.25	0.69R	Stopped
Aug 6, 2025	Bearish	1	1.50R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	9.25	1.03R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	4.25	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 20, 2026	Bullish	2.5	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 16, 2026	Bearish	28.25	0.32R	Stopped
Sep 16, 2025	Bearish	1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 15, 2025	Bullish	6.5	0.81R	Stopped
Jun 4, 2025	Bearish	5.75	0.91R	Stopped
Dec 18, 2024	Bearish	4.75	0.42R	Stopped
Nov 1, 2024	Bullish	14.75	0.17R	Stopped
Oct 24, 2024	Bullish	4.25	0.47R	Stopped
Sep 17, 2024	Bullish	3.75	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 21, 2024	Bullish	10.25	1.24R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 17, 2024	Bearish	7.5	0.80R	Stopped
Jan 23, 2024	Bearish	5	1.95R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 19, 2023	Bullish	2.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 17, 2023	Bullish	3.25	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 19, 2022	Bearish	6.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 31, 2022	Bullish	6	0.92R	Stopped
Jul 22, 2022	Bullish	10.5	0.26R	Stopped
Mar 9, 2022	Bullish	13.75	1.33R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 26, 2026	Bullish	29.5	0.43R	Stopped
Mar 16, 2026	Bearish	31	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 19, 2025	Bearish	15.25	0.28R	Stopped
Jun 15, 2023	Bearish	2.25	0.00R	Stopped
May 17, 2023	Bullish	10	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 30, 2022	Bullish	4.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 13, 2022	Bearish	5.25	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 22, 2021	Bearish	9	1.28R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 8, 2021	Bullish	24.5	0.81R	Flat
Oct 5, 2020	Bearish	4	2.31R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 27, 2020	Bearish	12.25	0.47R	Stopped
Nov 15, 2018	Bearish	18	0.31R	Stopped
Oct 18, 2018	Bullish	16.25	0.05R	Stopped
Sep 27, 2017	Bearish	5.25	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 25, 2017	Bearish	7.5	0.67R	Flat
May 18, 2015	Bearish	1.5	0.50R	Stopped
Feb 10, 2014	Bearish	3	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 14, 2012	Bullish	6.25	0.04R	Stopped
Sep 29, 2011	Bullish	5.5	0.00R	Stopped
May 20, 2011	Bullish	5.25	1.24R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (14)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 26, 2026	Bullish	9.75	0.62R	Stopped
Dec 19, 2025	Bearish	5.25	1.76R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 18, 2023	Bearish	1.75	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 14, 2023	Bearish	21.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 28, 2019	Bearish	4.5	0.11R	Stopped
Jun 20, 2016	Bearish	6.75	1.78R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 5, 2014	Bullish	6.75	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 15, 2014	Bearish	9.25	0.89R	Stopped
Mar 5, 2012	Bullish	1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 18, 2010	Bearish	3	0.33R	Stopped
Jan 12, 2010	Bullish	4.25	0.12R	Stopped
Sep 29, 2008	Bullish	7	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 12, 2008	Bearish	13.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 6, 2008	Bearish	22	1.49R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (8)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 2, 2024	Bullish	6.25	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 19, 2022	Bullish	7	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 13, 2018	Bearish	3.75	0.73R	Stopped
Jan 29, 2018	Bearish	5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 13, 2015	Bearish	3	0.50R	Stopped
May 15, 2015	Bearish	5	0.25R	Stopped
Jul 15, 2014	Bearish	9	0.17R	Stopped
Feb 11, 2011	Bearish	0.75	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (2)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 7, 2023	Bearish	78	2.43R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 10, 2008	Bullish	15	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	5.4	0.31R	Stopped
Apr 16, 2026	Bullish	3.8	2.11R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 14, 2026	Bearish	3.4	1.15R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2026	Bearish	2.8	2.25R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 9, 2026	Bullish	3.2	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	4.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	4.9	0.80R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2026	Bearish	1.8	1.44R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2026	Bullish	3	0.63R	Stopped
Mar 19, 2026	Bullish	10	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	3.3	0.24R	Stopped
Mar 13, 2026	Bearish	3.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 6, 2026	Bearish	8.5	2.75R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 5, 2026	Bearish	4.6	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 3, 2026	Bearish	4.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 3, 2026	Bullish	36.5	1.07R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 3, 2026	Bullish	7.7	0.74R	Stopped
Mar 3, 2026	Bearish	6.1	0.54R	Stopped
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	6.5	2.05R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 20, 2026	Bearish	3.7	2.46R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 17, 2026	Bearish	3.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	18.5	0.70R	Stopped
Mar 19, 2026	Bullish	20.7	0.12R	Stopped
Feb 12, 2026	Bullish	23.7	0.55R	Stopped
Feb 2, 2026	Bearish	18.8	2.67R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 20, 2026	Bearish	5.2	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 10, 2025	Bearish	4.1	2.39R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 3, 2025	Bullish	5.5	0.85R	Stopped
Nov 20, 2025	Bullish	8.8	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 8, 2025	Bearish	6.8	1.40R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 22, 2025	Bearish	2.3	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 16, 2025	Bearish	2.4	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 13, 2025	Bullish	4.6	0.30R	Stopped
Jul 28, 2025	Bearish	2.4	0.54R	Stopped
Jul 23, 2025	Bearish	3.4	2.94R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 14, 2025	Bullish	2.1	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 2, 2025	Bullish	1.9	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 3, 2025	Bullish	4	2.55R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2025	Bearish	6.3	1.86R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2025	Bearish	4.3	0.07R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	4.4	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 14, 2026	Bullish	9.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 20, 2026	Bearish	38.5	0.14R	Stopped
Feb 6, 2026	Bearish	34.1	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 7, 2025	Bearish	15.3	0.40R	Flat
Sep 30, 2025	Bearish	3.7	0.00R	Stopped
May 21, 2025	Bullish	16.1	0.71R	Flat
May 9, 2025	Bearish	3.4	1.82R	Ran ≥1R
May 1, 2025	Bullish	10.2	0.35R	Stopped
Mar 14, 2025	Bullish	11.3	0.14R	Flat
Dec 18, 2024	Bearish	1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 3, 2024	Bearish	2.3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2024	Bullish	3.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 29, 2023	Bullish	2.5	0.36R	Stopped
Jun 19, 2023	Bullish	1.2	0.08R	Stopped
May 9, 2023	Bearish	0.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 17, 2023	Bullish	5.8	0.26R	Flat
Dec 28, 2022	Bullish	3.3	0.45R	Stopped
May 17, 2022	Bearish	3.6	1.08R	Ran ≥1R
May 12, 2022	Bullish	5.5	0.67R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 21, 2026	Bearish	12.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 18, 2025	Bullish	6.8	0.24R	Stopped
Oct 21, 2025	Bullish	8	0.00R	Stopped
May 21, 2025	Bullish	14.6	1.51R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 15, 2025	Bearish	4.6	1.13R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 3, 2024	Bearish	5.5	1.31R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 21, 2024	Bearish	7	0.46R	Stopped
Aug 14, 2024	Bullish	5.3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2024	Bullish	5.7	2.09R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 30, 2023	Bullish	4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 7, 2022	Bearish	4.2	0.38R	Stopped
Nov 2, 2021	Bullish	1.8	0.78R	Stopped
Oct 7, 2021	Bullish	6.3	0.38R	Flat
May 27, 2021	Bullish	3.7	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 25, 2021	Bullish	5.3	1.94R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 5, 2021	Bearish	5.7	0.51R	Stopped
Feb 23, 2021	Bearish	3.3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 1, 2021	Bearish	11.6	0.46R	Flat
Oct 26, 2020	Bearish	4.7	0.91R	Stopped
May 4, 2020	Bearish	2.8	1.11R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 20, 2026	Bearish	18	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 31, 2025	Bullish	35.1	2.15R	Ran ≥1R
May 7, 2024	Bullish	3.7	1.05R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 8, 2022	Bullish	8.5	0.18R	Stopped
Aug 13, 2020	Bearish	11.4	2.13R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 6, 2020	Bearish	3.1	0.16R	Stopped
Nov 11, 2019	Bullish	8.7	0.07R	Stopped
Jan 25, 2017	Bullish	1.7	0.65R	Stopped
Jun 23, 2016	Bearish	6.7	2.30R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 16, 2015	Bearish	6.3	1.22R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 17, 2014	Bullish	7.4	1.34R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 7, 2014	Bullish	5.4	0.48R	Stopped
Jan 29, 2013	Bearish	1.9	0.79R	Stopped
Oct 10, 2012	Bullish	3.6	0.08R	Stopped
Oct 4, 2012	Bearish	1	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 28, 2012	Bullish	3.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 4, 2011	Bearish	6.7	0.66R	Stopped
Aug 10, 2011	Bearish	23.8	0.07R	Stopped
Jan 24, 2011	Bearish	2.8	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 19, 2010	Bullish	13.5	0.76R	Flat

Sample Butterfly Completions (7)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 18, 2021	Bullish	32.3	1.28R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 21, 2020	Bearish	17.3	0.09R	Stopped
Nov 28, 2017	Bearish	5.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 24, 2015	Bullish	9.5	2.43R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 7, 2014	Bearish	6.4	0.83R	Stopped
Jun 7, 2013	Bearish	11.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 25, 2011	Bearish	9.4	0.59R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (2)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jul 24, 2019	Bearish	28.2	0.54R	Stopped
Oct 3, 2018	Bullish	16.8	2.67R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.22	0.09R	Stopped
Apr 16, 2026	Bearish	0.29	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	0.2	1.35R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2026	Bullish	0.16	1.75R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2026	Bearish	0.19	0.16R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2026	Bearish	0.24	0.25R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	0.46	0.20R	Stopped
Apr 2, 2026	Bearish	0.23	0.70R	Flat
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	0.01	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bullish	0.29	2.52R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 23, 2026	Bearish	0.11	0.73R	Stopped
Mar 13, 2026	Bullish	0.21	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 12, 2026	Bullish	0.36	0.42R	Stopped
Mar 10, 2026	Bullish	0.2	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 9, 2026	Bearish	0.65	1.57R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 3, 2026	Bearish	0.19	2.53R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 26, 2026	Bullish	0.06	0.17R	Stopped
Feb 20, 2026	Bearish	0.08	2.38R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	0.06	0.83R	Stopped
Feb 6, 2026	Bearish	0.06	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 8, 2026	Bearish	0.78	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 17, 2026	Bullish	0.07	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 25, 2025	Bearish	0.13	1.92R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 12, 2025	Bullish	0.13	0.69R	Flat
Oct 30, 2025	Bullish	0.09	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 19, 2025	Bearish	0.07	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 10, 2025	Bullish	0.1	0.20R	Stopped
Sep 4, 2025	Bullish	0.05	1.00R	Stopped
Jul 31, 2025	Bullish	0.08	1.25R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 11, 2025	Bullish	0.23	0.30R	Stopped
Jun 19, 2025	Bullish	0.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 2, 2025	Bullish	0.2	0.85R	Stopped
Apr 21, 2025	Bullish	0.26	1.15R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2025	Bullish	0.4	0.33R	Stopped
Mar 7, 2025	Bearish	0.17	0.53R	Stopped
Feb 28, 2025	Bullish	0.08	0.50R	Stopped
Feb 10, 2025	Bullish	0.13	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 13, 2025	Bearish	0.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 2, 2024	Bullish	0.22	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 26, 2024	Bullish	0.18	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Nov 5, 2025	Bearish	0.38	1.79R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2025	Bearish	0.23	0.17R	Stopped
Sep 26, 2024	Bearish	0.31	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 22, 2024	Bearish	0.09	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 16, 2024	Bullish	0.09	1.44R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 14, 2024	Bullish	0.27	1.44R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 7, 2024	Bullish	0.22	0.91R	Stopped
Jul 1, 2024	Bearish	0.11	1.18R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 3, 2024	Bullish	0.31	2.65R	Ran ≥1R
May 10, 2024	Bearish	0.11	0.36R	Stopped
Apr 16, 2024	Bullish	0.05	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 20, 2024	Bearish	0.13	0.31R	Stopped
Feb 5, 2024	Bullish	0.23	0.22R	Stopped
May 29, 2023	Bearish	0.31	0.32R	Stopped
May 25, 2023	Bullish	0.25	0.08R	Stopped
Mar 3, 2023	Bearish	0.13	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 17, 2023	Bullish	0.19	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 20, 2022	Bearish	0.12	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 8, 2022	Bearish	0.76	1.97R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 20, 2021	Bullish	1.14	1.75R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	1.12	0.58R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	1.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 26, 2025	Bearish	0.44	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2025	Bearish	0.14	0.21R	Stopped
Jun 3, 2024	Bullish	0.37	2.05R	Ran ≥1R
May 30, 2024	Bullish	0.29	1.03R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 5, 2024	Bullish	0.15	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 26, 2023	Bearish	0.05	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 8, 2022	Bearish	0.9	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 6, 2021	Bearish	0.21	1.00R	Stopped
Jul 29, 2021	Bearish	0.1	0.30R	Stopped
Oct 13, 2020	Bearish	0.41	0.34R	Stopped
Jun 12, 2020	Bearish	0.65	1.95R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 2, 2019	Bullish	0.24	1.13R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 15, 2019	Bullish	0.41	2.83R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 21, 2018	Bullish	0.14	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 17, 2018	Bullish	0.47	1.68R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 26, 2018	Bearish	0.13	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 25, 2017	Bullish	0.3	2.20R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 14, 2016	Bullish	0.09	1.33R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 17, 2026	Bearish	2.23	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 10, 2025	Bearish	0.26	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 29, 2024	Bearish	1.12	2.03R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2023	Bearish	0.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 7, 2022	Bullish	1.09	1.50R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 30, 2021	Bearish	0.48	0.60R	Stopped
Sep 21, 2020	Bullish	0.36	0.08R	Stopped
Sep 15, 2020	Bearish	0.54	0.09R	Stopped
Aug 30, 2019	Bullish	0.51	0.14R	Stopped
Jul 10, 2019	Bearish	0.14	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 20, 2018	Bearish	0.88	1.28R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 26, 2018	Bearish	1.01	0.46R	Flat
Mar 31, 2014	Bullish	0.67	0.04R	Stopped
May 30, 2013	Bullish	0.36	0.58R	Stopped
May 15, 2013	Bullish	0.49	0.14R	Stopped
Feb 7, 2012	Bearish	0.71	0.01R	Stopped
Jan 12, 2012	Bearish	1.05	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 21, 2011	Bearish	0.38	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 28, 2011	Bullish	0.86	0.53R	Stopped
Jul 26, 2010	Bullish	0.78	1.09R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (5)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Dec 8, 2025	Bearish	0.27	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 22, 2025	Bullish	0.43	2.26R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 7, 2023	Bearish	0.57	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 22, 2019	Bearish	0.73	2.49R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 3, 2008	Bullish	0.48	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	0.005	0.60R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.67R	Flat
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	0.008	0.12R	Stopped
Mar 31, 2026	Bullish	0.01	1.70R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 26, 2026	Bearish	0.004	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 23, 2026	Bearish	0.005	0.80R	Stopped
Mar 20, 2026	Bearish	0.001	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 10, 2026	Bullish	0.015	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 2, 2026	Bullish	0.001	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 27, 2026	Bullish	0.003	1.67R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 20, 2026	Bearish	0.001	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 19, 2026	Bullish	0.01	1.80R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 13, 2026	Bearish	0.009	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 9, 2026	Bearish	0.003	0.67R	Stopped
Feb 9, 2026	Bearish	0.014	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 5, 2026	Bearish	0.006	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 4, 2026	Bullish	0.007	1.57R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 4, 2026	Bearish	0.026	0.19R	Stopped
Feb 4, 2026	Bullish	0.004	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 10, 2026	Bullish	0.013	0.69R	Flat
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	0.016	1.38R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	0.01	0.70R	Stopped
Jan 15, 2026	Bullish	0.014	2.57R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 12, 2026	Bearish	0.017	0.71R	Stopped
Dec 1, 2025	Bullish	0.022	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 26, 2025	Bearish	0.006	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 13, 2025	Bullish	0.011	1.27R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 30, 2025	Bearish	0.003	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 2, 2025	Bullish	0.01	0.70R	Flat
Aug 8, 2025	Bullish	0.005	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 16, 2025	Bearish	0.011	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 19, 2025	Bullish	0.011	1.64R	Ran ≥1R
May 26, 2025	Bearish	0.013	1.85R	Ran ≥1R
May 14, 2025	Bullish	0.011	1.27R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 17, 2025	Bearish	0.054	0.46R	Flat
Apr 17, 2025	Bearish	0.007	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 28, 2025	Bullish	0.004	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 27, 2025	Bullish	0.034	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 27, 2025	Bullish	0.031	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 19, 2026	Bearish	0.031	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 7, 2026	Bearish	0.037	1.00R	Flat
Sep 16, 2025	Bearish	0.04	0.27R	Flat
Jul 4, 2025	Bullish	0.011	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 14, 2025	Bullish	0.019	0.32R	Stopped
Mar 5, 2025	Bearish	0.033	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 6, 2025	Bearish	0.044	0.68R	Flat
Feb 4, 2025	Bullish	0.017	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 21, 2025	Bullish	0.023	1.83R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 17, 2024	Bearish	0.013	1.46R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 30, 2024	Bullish	0.021	1.33R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 10, 2024	Bullish	0.005	0.40R	Stopped
May 3, 2024	Bearish	0.031	0.48R	Stopped
Dec 1, 2023	Bullish	0.017	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 21, 2023	Bullish	0.012	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2023	Bullish	0.018	1.78R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 8, 2023	Bearish	0.009	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 23, 2023	Bearish	0.033	0.21R	Flat
Dec 21, 2022	Bullish	0.137	1.83R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 29, 2022	Bearish	0.091	1.30R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Dec 29, 2025	Bearish	0.02	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 22, 2025	Bearish	0.011	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 23, 2025	Bullish	0.011	0.55R	Stopped
Dec 17, 2024	Bearish	0.027	0.19R	Stopped
May 3, 2024	Bearish	0.024	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 21, 2022	Bullish	0.171	1.27R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 29, 2022	Bearish	0.022	0.50R	Stopped
Jan 11, 2022	Bearish	0.028	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 21, 2021	Bullish	0.011	0.82R	Stopped
Sep 7, 2021	Bullish	0.009	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 3, 2020	Bullish	0.008	0.25R	Stopped
Jul 3, 2020	Bearish	0.01	1.60R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 20, 2019	Bearish	0.017	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 12, 2019	Bullish	0.012	2.58R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 31, 2018	Bearish	0.004	0.50R	Stopped
Jan 31, 2018	Bullish	0.01	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 4, 2017	Bullish	0.017	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 10, 2015	Bearish	0.025	1.80R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 9, 2014	Bearish	0.017	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2014	Bullish	0.014	1.36R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Butterfly Completions (16)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	0.027	—	Open
Mar 27, 2023	Bearish	0.016	0.37R	Stopped
Feb 27, 2023	Bearish	0.039	0.31R	Stopped
Jun 23, 2016	Bullish	0.017	1.06R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 3, 2014	Bearish	0.024	2.58R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 8, 2014	Bearish	0.025	0.12R	Stopped
Dec 11, 2012	Bullish	0.025	1.16R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 4, 2012	Bullish	0.028	0.96R	Stopped
Nov 15, 2012	Bullish	0.06	0.08R	Stopped
Jul 20, 2011	Bullish	0.069	1.33R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 7, 2011	Bullish	0.025	0.40R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2011	Bearish	0.029	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 27, 2010	Bearish	0.086	1.15R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 28, 2010	Bullish	0.042	0.12R	Stopped
May 14, 2009	Bullish	0.069	0.22R	Stopped
Jul 29, 2008	Bullish	0.21	0.26R	Stopped

Sample Butterfly Completions (10)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jul 30, 2024	Bullish	0.053	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 29, 2023	Bullish	0.037	1.57R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 9, 2021	Bearish	0.08	0.15R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2021	Bearish	0.053	0.25R	Stopped
Oct 17, 2019	Bearish	0.08	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 16, 2017	Bearish	0.069	2.81R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 15, 2017	Bullish	0.038	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 6, 2013	Bearish	0.104	0.27R	Stopped
Feb 21, 2012	Bearish	0.095	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 6, 2008	Bearish	0.212	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample backtests (6)

Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.

ES 15m · Butterfly · 2020-2024

Butterfly · balanced

Win rate: 58.62%
Profit factor: 1.37
Max drawdown: 1.79%

29 trades View →

NQ 15m · Butterfly · 2020-2024

Butterfly · balanced

Win rate: 60.53%
Profit factor: 1.14
Max drawdown: 6.60%

38 trades View →

GC 5m · Butterfly · 2020-2024

Butterfly · balanced

Win rate: 58.89%
Profit factor: 1.10
Max drawdown: 3.13%

90 trades View →

NQ 5m · Butterfly · 2020-2024

Butterfly · balanced

Win rate: 59.52%
Profit factor: 0.91
Max drawdown: 4.59%

126 trades View →

ES 5m · Butterfly · 2020-2024

Butterfly · balanced

Win rate: 52.86%
Profit factor: 0.80
Max drawdown: 2.90%

70 trades View →

GC 15m · Butterfly · 2020-2024

Butterfly · balanced

Win rate: 64.71%
Profit factor: 0.64
Max drawdown: 4.88%

34 trades View →

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