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Pattern Detail

AB=CD

Q: Does the AB=CD pattern actually work?

Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed AB=CD by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.

Q: What is the AB=CD pattern success rate?

There is no single reliable figure, and the round-number rates repeated online rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or test period, and almost never state what target and stop they assume. Rather than quote folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape. The tabs show that comparison across five markets and seven timeframes.

Q: How is the AB=CD defined here?

It is a four-point structure where B to C retraces 0.618 to 0.786 of AB, and the C-to-D leg matches AB in length, both holding at once within a 5% tolerance. D is the point of equality, where the move has covered the same ground twice. Pivots use 3 bars on each side and are confirmed before they count.

The building block of every harmonic pattern: two equal-length legs around a partial retracement.

C = 0.618-0.786 retrace of AB
CD = AB (equal legs)

Idealized bullish AB=CD. It completes at a low and projects a move up.

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random long entry (+1.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.10×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.4% of the time vs 44.4% for a random long entry. The 1.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2,404 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.4%	44.4%	+1.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.2%	22.6%	+1.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.2%	12.5%	+0.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.9%	45.9%	-1.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.7%	9.7%	-0.0

2,404 occurrences · 136,704 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (+1.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.04×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.17R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.9% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry. The 1.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2,362 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.9%	44.6%	+1.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.4%	24.2%	+2.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.4%	14.1%	+1.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.3%	47.6%	-1.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	7.8%	7.8%	+0.1

2,362 occurrences · 136,054 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

47.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (+3.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.11×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.19R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 47.1% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 3.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 480 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	47.1%	44.1%	+3.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.2%	22.7%	+2.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.8%	13.1%	+1.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.8%	43.4%	+0.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.2%	12.5%	-3.3

480 occurrences · 30,293 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.9%

Reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random short entry (+4.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.96×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.26R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room 48.9% of the time vs 44.3% for a random short entry — a 4.6-point gap, wider than the ±4.1-point margin of error from chance, and it holds across the sample. A real, if modest, tendency to offer more room than the market alone.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.9%	44.3%	+4.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	27.8%	24.8%	+3.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.9%	15.2%	+3.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.8%	47.0%	-3.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	7.4%	8.8%	-1.4

571 occurrences · 29,992 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (-0.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.4% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 0.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 145 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.4%	44.1%	-0.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.1%	24.7%	-0.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.2%	15.7%	+1.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	35.9%	42.7%	-6.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	20.7%	13.2%	+7.5

145 occurrences · 10,656 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.0% for a random short entry (-1.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.97×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.17R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.9% of the time vs 43.0% for a random short entry. The 1.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 160 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.9%	43.0%	-1.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.0%	25.9%	-0.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	20.0%	17.0%	+3.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.6%	47.1%	-1.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.5%	9.9%	+2.6

160 occurrences · 10,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

Limited sample (86). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (-1.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.93×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.0% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±10.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 86 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.0%	44.5%	-1.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.3%	24.1%	-0.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.5%	14.6%	-4.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	48.8%	43.5%	+5.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.1%	12.0%	-3.8

86 occurrences · 5,466 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

Limited sample (74). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

39.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random short entry (-4.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.96×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.05R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 39.2% of the time vs 44.0% for a random short entry. The 4.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±11.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 74 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	39.2%	44.0%	-4.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.0%	26.3%	-3.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.2%	17.3%	-1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	54.1%	47.6%	+6.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	6.8%	8.4%	-1.6

74 occurrences · 5,325 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

Limited sample (50). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

52.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 48.1% for a random long entry (+3.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.97×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.31R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.24R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 52.0% of the time vs 48.1% for a random long entry. The 3.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 50 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	52.0%	48.1%	+3.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	30.0%	27.8%	+2.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.0%	15.9%	+2.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.0%	42.8%	-2.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.0%	9.1%	-1.1

50 occurrences · 2,616 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

Limited sample (49). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

36.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (-7.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.03×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 36.7% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry. The 7.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 49 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	36.7%	43.8%	-7.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.5%	26.7%	-2.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	22.4%	17.2%	+5.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	59.2%	50.6%	+8.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	4.1%	5.6%	-1.5

49 occurrences · 2,611 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 51.5% for a random long entry (-18.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.01R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.25R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 51.5% for a random long entry. The 18.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 9 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	51.5%	-18.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.2%	27.9%	-5.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.1%	13.2%	-2.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	22.2%	38.1%	-15.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	44.4%	10.4%	+34.0

9 occurrences · 423 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.1% for a random short entry (-6.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.78×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.98R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 40.1% for a random short entry. The 6.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±39.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 6 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	40.1%	-6.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.3%	24.9%	+8.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.7%	16.2%	+0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	56.6%	+10.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

6 occurrences · 401 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

66.7%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 49.2% for a random long entry (+17.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.39×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.96R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 66.7% of the time vs 49.2% for a random long entry. The 17.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	66.7%	49.2%	+17.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	66.7%	23.9%	+42.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	33.3%	11.8%	+21.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	33.3%	39.4%	-6.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	11.4%	-11.4

3 occurrences · 439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.9% for a random short entry (+9.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.96R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 40.9% for a random short entry. The 9.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±39.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	40.9%	+9.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	16.7%	23.6%	-6.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.7%	14.4%	+2.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	55.8%	-5.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

6 occurrences · 403 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (-0.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.22×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.8% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 0.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,463 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.8%	44.3%	-0.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.6%	21.6%	+0.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.9%	11.6%	+1.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.1%	45.7%	+0.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.1%	10.0%	+0.1

1,463 occurrences · 100,574 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random short entry (+1.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.11×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.11R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.1% of the time vs 44.4% for a random short entry. The 1.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,473 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.1%	44.4%	+1.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.2%	23.0%	+0.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.0%	13.0%	+0.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.2%	47.3%	-1.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	7.7%	8.2%	-0.5

1,473 occurrences · 99,273 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (+1.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.18×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.20R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.4% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 1.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 377 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.4%	44.3%	+1.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.0%	22.4%	+3.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.4%	12.5%	+3.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.3%	43.3%	-4.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	15.4%	12.4%	+3.0

377 occurrences · 26,201 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.2% for a random short entry (-1.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.06×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.6% of the time vs 44.2% for a random short entry. The 1.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 404 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.6%	44.2%	-1.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.0%	23.9%	+2.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.3%	14.4%	+0.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.8%	46.8%	+1.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.7%	9.0%	+0.6

404 occurrences · 25,439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (-3.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.97×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.9% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 3.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 127 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.9%	44.5%	-3.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.8%	24.7%	-1.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.4%	15.0%	-1.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.5%	42.4%	+0.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.5%	13.1%	+3.4

127 occurrences · 9,935 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

39.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-4.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.94×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.02R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 39.1% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 4.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 133 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	39.1%	43.3%	-4.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.3%	25.5%	-2.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.0%	16.4%	-4.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	48.9%	46.3%	+2.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.0%	10.4%	+1.6

133 occurrences · 9,497 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

Limited sample (69). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (+2.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.4% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 2.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±11.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 69 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.4%	44.3%	+2.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.8%	23.3%	-4.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.0%	14.2%	-1.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.8%	43.7%	+4.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	5.8%	12.0%	-6.2

69 occurrences · 5,306 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

Limited sample (64). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (+4.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.86×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.28R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 4.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±12.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 64 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	45.2%	+4.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.6%	26.5%	+0.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.1%	16.9%	-2.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	37.5%	46.6%	-9.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.5%	8.2%	+4.3

64 occurrences · 5,060 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

Limited sample (51). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

52.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (+6.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.06×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.43R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 52.9% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 6.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 51 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	52.9%	46.6%	+6.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	43.1%	26.0%	+17.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	19.6%	15.2%	+4.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	37.3%	44.2%	-7.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.8%	9.1%	+0.7

51 occurrences · 2,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

Limited sample (48). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (-1.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.92×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.21R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.21R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.8% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 48 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.8%	45.2%	-1.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	29.2%	28.0%	+1.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	22.9%	19.0%	+3.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	52.1%	49.7%	+2.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	4.2%	5.1%	-0.9

48 occurrences · 2,539 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

28.6%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (-16.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.31×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.70R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 28.6% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 16.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 7 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	28.6%	44.6%	-16.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	18.9%	-18.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	8.5%	-8.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.9%	41.5%	+1.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	28.6%	13.9%	+14.7

7 occurrences · 424 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.2% for a random short entry (-41.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.73×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.31R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 41.2% for a random short entry. The 41.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±43.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	41.2%	-41.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	23.8%	-23.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.4%	-16.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	55.6%	+44.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

5 occurrences · 408 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

25.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.2% for a random long entry (-22.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.28×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.54R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 25.0% of the time vs 47.2% for a random long entry. The 22.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±48.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	25.0%	47.2%	-22.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	21.2%	-21.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	9.6%	-9.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	75.0%	39.2%	+35.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	13.7%	-13.7

4 occurrences · 439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random short entry (-9.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.90×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.82R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 42.6% for a random short entry. The 9.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	42.6%	-9.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	11.1%	25.7%	-14.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.1%	16.6%	-5.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	55.6%	53.9%	+1.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.1%	3.5%	+7.6

9 occurrences · 397 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.9% for a random long entry (-0.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.14×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.6% of the time vs 42.9% for a random long entry. The 0.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5,615 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.6%	42.9%	-0.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.8%	22.4%	-0.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.4%	12.8%	-0.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.1%	46.3%	-0.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.3%	10.9%	+0.5

5,615 occurrences · 393,642 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (+1.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.10R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.6% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 1.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5,481 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.6%	43.6%	+1.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.8%	23.3%	-0.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.7%	13.5%	-0.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.6%	46.4%	-0.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.8%	10.0%	-0.3

5,481 occurrences · 391,020 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+1.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.6% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 1.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,703 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.6%	43.3%	+1.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.3%	22.8%	+0.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.5%	13.0%	-0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.5%	45.4%	-0.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.9%	11.3%	-0.4

1,703 occurrences · 98,903 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random short entry (+1.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.06×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.17R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.6% of the time vs 44.1% for a random short entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,714 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.6%	44.1%	+1.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.0%	23.8%	+2.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.9%	14.0%	+2.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.8%	45.9%	-0.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.6%	10.0%	-1.4

1,714 occurrences · 97,699 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (-1.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.05×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.09R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.4% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 1.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 618 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.4%	43.3%	-1.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.2%	23.2%	-1.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.3%	13.8%	-0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	49.5%	44.7%	+4.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.1%	11.9%	-2.9

618 occurrences · 36,235 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random short entry (+0.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.3% of the time vs 43.9% for a random short entry. The 0.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 639 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.3%	43.9%	+0.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.3%	24.3%	-0.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.1%	14.8%	-0.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.4%	45.4%	+0.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.3%	10.7%	-0.4

639 occurrences · 35,963 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random long entry (-2.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.5% of the time vs 42.6% for a random long entry. The 2.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 311 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.5%	42.6%	-2.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.8%	23.5%	+1.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.8%	14.0%	+1.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.7%	44.1%	+1.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.8%	13.2%	+0.6

311 occurrences · 18,830 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (+1.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.00×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.19R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.0% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 302 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.0%	43.6%	+1.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	27.2%	24.3%	+2.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.6%	15.2%	+0.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.7%	45.1%	-1.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.3%	11.3%	-0.1

302 occurrences · 18,516 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (+1.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.99×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.16R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.6% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 1.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 147 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.6%	44.6%	+1.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.5%	24.5%	+0.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.0%	14.8%	+2.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.5%	44.9%	-1.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.9%	10.5%	+0.4

147 occurrences · 9,536 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random short entry (+3.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.11×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.20R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 48.0% of the time vs 44.5% for a random short entry. The 3.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 150 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.0%	44.5%	+3.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.0%	25.7%	+2.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.7%	15.7%	-1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.0%	46.5%	-2.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.0%	9.0%	-1.0

150 occurrences · 9,392 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

Limited sample (43). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

55.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (+9.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.04×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.37R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 55.8% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 9.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 43 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	55.8%	46.6%	+9.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	37.2%	26.1%	+11.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	23.3%	16.1%	+7.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.2%	44.5%	-0.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	8.9%	-8.9

43 occurrences · 2,338 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

Limited sample (42). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

54.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.5% for a random short entry (+8.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.94×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.35R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 54.8% of the time vs 46.5% for a random short entry. The 8.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±15.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 42 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	54.8%	46.5%	+8.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	31.0%	26.5%	+4.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	19.0%	15.8%	+3.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.9%	46.9%	-4.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	2.4%	6.5%	-4.1

42 occurrences · 2,207 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 49.4% for a random long entry (-9.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.89×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.94R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.24R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 49.4% for a random long entry. The 9.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±31.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 10 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 10 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.0%	49.4%	-9.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.0%	27.1%	-7.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.5%	-16.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	41.2%	+8.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.0%	9.4%	+0.6

10 occurrences · 425 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

28.6%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.4% for a random short entry (-10.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.99×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.71R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 28.6% of the time vs 39.4% for a random short entry. The 10.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	28.6%	39.4%	-10.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	14.3%	21.9%	-7.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	12.7%	-12.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	71.4%	50.7%	+20.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.9%	-9.9

7 occurrences · 424 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+0.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.23×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.09R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.8% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 0.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5,062 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.8%	43.3%	+0.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.0%	22.9%	+0.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.0%	13.2%	-0.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.2%	46.4%	-0.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.0%	10.2%	-0.3

5,062 occurrences · 371,185 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random short entry (+0.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.18×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.09R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.0% of the time vs 43.5% for a random short entry. The 0.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5,214 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.0%	43.5%	+0.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.0%	23.3%	-0.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.8%	13.5%	-0.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.1%	46.5%	-1.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.0%	9.9%	+1.0

5,214 occurrences · 369,441 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random long entry (+0.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.5% of the time vs 43.9% for a random long entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,406 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.5%	43.9%	+0.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.3%	23.5%	-0.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.1%	13.6%	+0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.4%	45.1%	+0.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.1%	11.0%	-0.9

1,406 occurrences · 92,926 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (+1.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.17×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.16R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.7% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 1.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,491 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.7%	43.7%	+1.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.2%	23.8%	+1.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.1%	14.0%	+1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.1%	45.8%	-0.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.2%	10.5%	-0.3

1,491 occurrences · 92,675 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (+2.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.03×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.18R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.4% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry. The 2.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 535 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.4%	43.4%	+2.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.4%	23.4%	+2.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.6%	13.8%	+2.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.2%	44.4%	-1.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.5%	12.2%	-1.7

535 occurrences · 34,385 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

47.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (+3.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.03×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.21R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 47.2% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry. The 3.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 599 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	47.2%	43.8%	+3.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.9%	24.3%	+1.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.9%	14.4%	+1.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	41.4%	45.2%	-3.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.4%	11.0%	+0.4

599 occurrences · 33,999 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random long entry (+3.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.22R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.9% of the time vs 43.1% for a random long entry. The 3.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 243 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.9%	43.1%	+3.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.6%	23.2%	-0.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.2%	14.1%	-0.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.9%	43.3%	-3.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.2%	13.7%	-0.5

243 occurrences · 17,693 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+3.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.05×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.22R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.3% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 3.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 246 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.3%	43.3%	+3.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.0%	24.4%	+1.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.3%	15.3%	+1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.7%	44.4%	-1.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.0%	12.3%	-1.3

246 occurrences · 17,912 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random long entry (+0.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.01×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.18R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.0% of the time vs 43.5% for a random long entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 134 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.0%	43.5%	+0.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.1%	23.4%	+2.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.7%	14.1%	-1.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.0%	45.5%	-1.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.9%	11.0%	+1.0

134 occurrences · 9,070 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.9% for a random short entry (+5.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.05×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.31R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.5% of the time vs 44.9% for a random short entry. The 5.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 111 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.5%	44.9%	+5.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	29.7%	25.5%	+4.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.9%	15.8%	+3.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.6%	45.6%	-6.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.9%	9.5%	+0.4

111 occurrences · 9,047 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

Limited sample (50). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

28.0%

Backwards

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random long entry (-15.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.96×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.90R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 28.0% of the time vs 43.8% for a random long entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	28.0%	43.8%	-15.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.0%	23.4%	-5.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.0%	11.5%	-1.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	64.0%	48.7%	+15.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.0%	7.5%	+0.5

50 occurrences · 2,394 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

Limited sample (38). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

36.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (-7.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.00×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 36.8% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry. The 7.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±15.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 38 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	36.8%	44.6%	-7.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.3%	25.5%	+0.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.5%	15.0%	-4.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	57.9%	48.6%	+9.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	5.3%	6.8%	-1.6

38 occurrences · 2,319 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

57.1%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.1% for a random long entry (+10.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.87×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.37R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 57.1% of the time vs 47.1% for a random long entry. The 10.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±37.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	57.1%	47.1%	+10.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	57.1%	23.8%	+33.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	14.9%	-0.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.9%	43.0%	-0.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.0%	-10.0

7 occurrences · 442 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.9%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.8% for a random short entry (+2.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.78×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.37R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.9% of the time vs 40.8% for a random short entry. The 2.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.9%	40.8%	+2.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	42.9%	20.4%	+22.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	28.6%	13.1%	+15.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.9%	49.5%	-6.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.3%	9.7%	+4.6

7 occurrences · 412 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.5% for a random long entry (+0.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.18×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.05R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.7% of the time vs 42.5% for a random long entry. The 0.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3,460 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.7%	42.5%	+0.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.4%	23.0%	-1.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.1%	13.6%	-0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.0%	46.8%	+0.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.3%	10.7%	-0.4

3,460 occurrences · 276,772 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random short entry (+0.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.17×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.1% of the time vs 42.4% for a random short entry. The 0.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3,425 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.1%	42.4%	+0.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.8%	23.1%	-0.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.2%	13.7%	-0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.9%	47.0%	-1.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.0%	10.7%	+0.4

3,425 occurrences · 276,314 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (+1.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.11×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.7% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry. The 1.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,004 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.7%	43.4%	+1.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.2%	23.4%	+0.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.2%	13.9%	+0.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.9%	45.5%	-0.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.4%	11.1%	-0.8

1,004 occurrences · 69,030 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (-0.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.8% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 0.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,049 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.8%	43.6%	-0.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.1%	23.6%	-0.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.0%	14.0%	-1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.7%	45.2%	+0.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.5%	11.3%	+0.3

1,049 occurrences · 68,562 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

35.9%

Backwards

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.8% for a random long entry (-6.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 35.9% of the time vs 42.8% for a random long entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	35.9%	42.8%	-6.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.2%	23.8%	-3.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.7%	14.6%	-2.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.4%	45.4%	+5.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.7%	11.9%	+1.8

351 occurrences · 25,869 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (-2.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.06×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.2% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 2.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 359 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.2%	43.7%	-2.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.2%	23.7%	-2.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.2%	14.2%	+0.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.8%	44.5%	+2.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.0%	11.8%	+0.2

359 occurrences · 25,622 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.9%

Backwards

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random long entry (-8.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.03×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.94R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 33.9% of the time vs 42.4% for a random long entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.9%	42.4%	-8.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.2%	24.0%	-5.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.9%	15.2%	-5.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	49.5%	45.4%	+4.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.7%	12.3%	+4.4

192 occurrences · 13,514 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-1.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.16R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.2% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 1.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 173 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.2%	43.3%	-1.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.6%	24.2%	+2.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.5%	15.2%	+3.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.7%	44.1%	+1.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.1%	12.6%	-0.5

173 occurrences · 13,523 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

Limited sample (87). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

49.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random long entry (+5.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.17R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 49.4% of the time vs 44.0% for a random long entry. The 5.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±10.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 87 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	49.4%	44.0%	+5.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.8%	24.4%	-2.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.2%	15.0%	-5.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.7%	46.4%	-2.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	6.9%	9.6%	-2.7

87 occurrences · 6,841 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

Limited sample (85). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

51.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+8.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.89×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.29R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 51.8% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 8.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±10.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 85 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	51.8%	43.3%	+8.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	32.9%	25.0%	+7.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.6%	14.7%	+3.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	34.1%	46.5%	-12.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.1%	10.1%	+4.0

85 occurrences · 6,967 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

74.1%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.1% for a random long entry (+28.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.97×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.61R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

The 28.0-point gap over the 46.1% random-entry rate clears the ±18.8-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 27 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	74.1%	46.1%	+28.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	37.0%	27.3%	+9.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.5%	15.5%	+3.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	25.9%	47.0%	-21.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	6.9%	-6.9

27 occurrences · 1,688 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

Limited sample (35). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

34.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-9.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.90×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.98R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 34.3% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 9.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 35 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	34.3%	43.3%	-9.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	17.1%	22.3%	-5.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.4%	12.5%	-1.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	54.3%	48.0%	+6.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.4%	8.7%	+2.7

35 occurrences · 1,722 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

66.7%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 53.3% for a random long entry (+13.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.81×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.54R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.32R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 66.7% of the time vs 53.3% for a random long entry. The 13.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±39.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	66.7%	53.3%	+13.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.3%	29.5%	+3.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	33.3%	16.5%	+16.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	16.7%	39.8%	-23.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.7%	7.0%	+9.7

6 occurrences · 400 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish AB=CD

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

54.5%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random short entry (+11.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.00×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.56R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 54.5% of the time vs 43.1% for a random short entry. The 11.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	54.5%	43.1%	+11.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	45.5%	19.0%	+26.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	27.3%	11.8%	+15.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	36.4%	46.5%	-10.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.1%	10.4%	-1.3

11 occurrences · 415 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

AB=CD is the simplest harmonic structure and the building block the others are made from. It is four points, A to B to C to D, defined by two legs of equal length around a partial retracement. The signature is the symmetry: the C-to-D leg matches the A-to-B leg in length.

How to spot it

A first leg from A to B, then a partial retracement from B to C against it.
B to C retraces 0.618 to 0.786 of AB, a measured pullback rather than a full reversal.
A final leg from C to D that matches AB in length, so the move covers the same ground twice.
The structure completes at D, a swing low in an uptrend (a buy) or a swing high in a downtrend (a sell).

The chart above marks the A, B, C, D points on a real occurrence, with the ratio of each leg.

Why it matters

The idea is symmetry. If the market moved a certain distance from A to B, paused, and then resumed, the second leg often travels a similar distance before stalling. D is the point of equality, where the move has covered the same ground twice and is read as complete, so the structure looks for a pause or a turn there. The stop sits just beyond D, which keeps it close.

That simplicity is also the catch. Two equal legs happen all the time without marking anything significant, so without context the AB=CD fires on a lot of meaningless structure. It is the most common pattern in the family, and the higher frequency is exactly what makes it useful for seeing how a high-volume setup behaves over a long sample.

The honest question is not whether the shape can be drawn on a chart, it always can after the fact, but whether a completion actually leads anywhere. That is what the data below measures.

Does it actually work?

A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the question is not “did it win” but “how much room did the move offer before the structure was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.

For each completion we measure the room price offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random swing pivot of the same kind would have done. A AB=CD that turns up from a swing low is judged against ordinary swing lows; one that turns down from a swing high, against ordinary swing highs. When the completion offers more room more often than those random swings, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.

Harmonic structures are rare, so read the sample size in view. On the slower timeframes a AB=CD completes only single digits of times, or not at all, while the faster timeframes give a larger sample. Thin samples are flagged for you.

How we measured it

Entry is the close of the bar that confirms the D point, the earliest a trader could act without hindsight.
One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close to D itself, the swing extreme the structure completes at. A move back through D says the pattern has failed.
We follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before D gave way.
The comparison is a random swing pivot of the same side, which already sits at a turning point with a tight stop. That keeps it apples-to-apples: the question is whether a AB=CD swing runs further than an ordinary swing of the same shape, not whether a tight stop flatters the numbers.

What this page does not cover

A profit target. Harmonic tradition puts one at a Fibonacci retracement, but where you take profit is a strategy choice, so this measures only the room the structure tends to offer.
A trend filter, or confluence with support, resistance, or a higher-timeframe level, which traders normally use to weight a completion.
A guarantee. A valid shape on the chart is a setup, not a certainty. What it tends to do next is exactly what the numbers above describe.

FAQ

Does the AB=CD pattern actually work?

Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed AB=CD by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.

What is the AB=CD pattern success rate?

There is no single reliable figure, and the round-number rates repeated online rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or test period, and almost never state what target and stop they assume. Rather than quote folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape. The tabs show that comparison across five markets and seven timeframes.

How is the AB=CD defined here?

It is a four-point structure where B to C retraces 0.618 to 0.786 of AB, and the C-to-D leg matches AB in length, both holding at once within a 5% tolerance. D is the point of equality, where the move has covered the same ground twice. Pivots use 3 bars on each side and are confirmed before they count.

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bearish	46.25	1.09R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	14.25	2.58R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 29, 2026	Bearish	14.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	22.25	0.91R	Stopped
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	19	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	30.75	0.13R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	17	0.12R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	3.25	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	19.75	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	3.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	13.5	0.91R	Flat
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	20.5	0.52R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	10.25	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	24	0.60R	Stopped
Apr 21, 2026	Bearish	32.5	1.28R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	15.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	7.5	2.03R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	19	0.33R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	27.75	0.10R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	21	1.33R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	57.5	0.29R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2026	Bearish	32.75	0.17R	Stopped
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	44.75	1.80R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 25, 2026	Bearish	66	1.76R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	37	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bearish	42.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 12, 2026	Bearish	28	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 11, 2026	Bullish	17	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 6, 2026	Bearish	78.5	1.32R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	34.75	1.50R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 24, 2026	Bullish	15.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 6, 2026	Bearish	51	0.28R	Stopped
Feb 5, 2026	Bullish	17.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 2, 2026	Bearish	9	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 30, 2026	Bullish	65.25	0.68R	Stopped
Jan 27, 2026	Bullish	36.25	0.70R	Flat
Jan 22, 2026	Bullish	33.75	0.43R	Stopped
Jan 13, 2026	Bullish	50.75	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 12, 2026	Bearish	9.5	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 8, 2026	Bullish	40.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	116	1.17R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 11, 2025	Bullish	123.75	0.28R	Flat
Jun 9, 2025	Bearish	66.25	0.16R	Stopped
Mar 21, 2025	Bearish	32	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 16, 2025	Bullish	85.25	0.57R	Stopped
Dec 3, 2024	Bearish	60	0.21R	Stopped
Nov 11, 2024	Bullish	71.25	1.15R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 7, 2024	Bearish	95	2.01R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 10, 2024	Bearish	41	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 22, 2024	Bearish	109	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 29, 2024	Bearish	155.25	0.70R	Flat
Jun 6, 2024	Bullish	48.75	0.18R	Stopped
May 13, 2024	Bullish	49.25	1.76R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 18, 2024	Bullish	11.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 11, 2024	Bearish	18	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 11, 2024	Bearish	43.25	0.79R	Stopped
Feb 12, 2024	Bearish	44.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 1, 2024	Bearish	59.75	0.02R	Stopped
Jan 23, 2024	Bullish	55.75	1.03R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 3, 2024	Bullish	46.25	0.63R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	207.5	0.89R	Flat
Mar 6, 2026	Bullish	235.5	0.35R	Stopped
Oct 9, 2025	Bearish	93.75	0.96R	Stopped
Sep 11, 2025	Bearish	37.5	0.30R	Stopped
Sep 9, 2025	Bullish	92	1.98R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 23, 2025	Bearish	60	0.13R	Stopped
Jul 11, 2025	Bullish	87	0.82R	Stopped
Jun 9, 2025	Bearish	60.75	0.26R	Stopped
May 7, 2025	Bullish	112.75	0.06R	Stopped
Nov 12, 2024	Bullish	133.75	0.60R	Stopped
Sep 10, 2024	Bearish	46.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 26, 2024	Bullish	110.5	0.24R	Stopped
Jun 20, 2024	Bearish	73.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 14, 2024	Bearish	50	0.46R	Stopped
Apr 18, 2024	Bullish	23.5	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2024	Bullish	113.5	0.71R	Flat
Feb 28, 2024	Bullish	85	1.31R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 8, 2024	Bearish	28.25	1.45R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 22, 2023	Bearish	109.25	0.76R	Flat
Nov 16, 2023	Bullish	70.75	1.90R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Nov 18, 2025	Bullish	335.25	1.79R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 9, 2025	Bearish	158.75	0.10R	Stopped
Sep 11, 2025	Bearish	24.5	0.18R	Stopped
Mar 4, 2025	Bullish	304.75	1.16R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 13, 2024	Bullish	45.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 24, 2024	Bearish	63	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 27, 2024	Bullish	228.5	0.10R	Stopped
May 14, 2024	Bearish	48	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 30, 2024	Bearish	160.25	2.40R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2024	Bullish	66.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 4, 2024	Bearish	26.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 25, 2024	Bullish	129.25	0.50R	Stopped
Oct 30, 2023	Bearish	78.25	1.11R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 10, 2023	Bullish	106.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 17, 2023	Bearish	39.75	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 18, 2022	Bearish	220.75	0.98R	Flat
Jul 29, 2022	Bearish	38.25	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 17, 2022	Bullish	198.25	2.42R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 15, 2021	Bearish	9.5	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 11, 2021	Bullish	40.25	0.50R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (13)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
May 7, 2025	Bearish	366.25	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2021	Bullish	264.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 29, 2020	Bearish	130.75	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 23, 2017	Bearish	31	2.87R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 11, 2017	Bullish	113.5	2.66R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 16, 2016	Bearish	51.75	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 17, 2015	Bullish	129	0.01R	Stopped
Apr 21, 2014	Bullish	141.25	0.55R	Flat
Apr 10, 2014	Bullish	9	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 6, 2014	Bearish	74.75	0.00R	Stopped
May 5, 2011	Bearish	22.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 28, 2010	Bullish	91.5	1.02R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 26, 2008	Bullish	149.5	0.53R	Flat

Sample AB=CD Completions (9)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
May 7, 2025	Bearish	327.75	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 7, 2021	Bullish	518.75	2.87R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 30, 2021	Bullish	285	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 20, 2017	Bearish	15.75	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 16, 2016	Bearish	47.5	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 17, 2015	Bullish	132.25	0.00R	Stopped
May 5, 2011	Bearish	43	1.74R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 13, 2009	Bearish	51.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 12, 2008	Bearish	47.5	1.03R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	1.5	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	4.25	0.82R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	2.5	0.40R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	2.75	0.09R	Stopped
Apr 21, 2026	Bearish	6.75	1.33R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	3.25	0.23R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	4	0.63R	Stopped
Apr 17, 2026	Bullish	4.25	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bearish	2	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bullish	7	1.25R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bullish	4.25	0.88R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	4.75	0.53R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2026	Bullish	4	0.63R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2026	Bullish	1	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 8, 2026	Bearish	3	0.17R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	3.75	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	3.75	0.60R	Stopped
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	5.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	7	0.50R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	5	0.85R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2026	Bearish	15.25	1.56R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 25, 2026	Bullish	37.5	0.12R	Flat
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	9.25	1.43R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 16, 2026	Bullish	14.5	1.10R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 12, 2026	Bullish	16.5	0.18R	Stopped
Feb 27, 2026	Bullish	7.75	1.52R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 19, 2026	Bullish	9.25	1.73R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 19, 2026	Bullish	24	0.56R	Flat
Jan 27, 2026	Bullish	8.25	0.88R	Flat
Jan 23, 2026	Bullish	3.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 21, 2026	Bearish	13	0.27R	Stopped
Jan 19, 2026	Bearish	3.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 17, 2025	Bearish	4.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 11, 2025	Bearish	3.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 11, 2025	Bearish	7	0.14R	Stopped
Dec 3, 2025	Bearish	4	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 24, 2025	Bearish	27.5	0.13R	Stopped
Nov 18, 2025	Bearish	11.25	0.00R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 16, 2026	Bullish	21.75	2.40R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 16, 2026	Bullish	26.75	0.38R	Stopped
Nov 19, 2025	Bearish	51.25	0.70R	Stopped
Oct 30, 2025	Bullish	20.75	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 28, 2025	Bearish	2.25	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 10, 2025	Bearish	4.5	0.00R	Stopped
May 21, 2025	Bullish	12.5	2.42R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2025	Bullish	22	0.15R	Stopped
Mar 11, 2025	Bullish	58.5	0.90R	Flat
Feb 27, 2025	Bullish	29.5	0.95R	Stopped
Feb 12, 2025	Bearish	13.75	0.49R	Stopped
Feb 11, 2025	Bearish	5.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 4, 2025	Bearish	23.5	0.17R	Stopped
Oct 9, 2024	Bullish	13	1.13R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 18, 2024	Bearish	8.75	2.09R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 4, 2024	Bullish	13	2.25R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 22, 2024	Bearish	25.5	2.16R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 12, 2024	Bearish	9.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 9, 2024	Bearish	23.75	0.21R	Stopped
Jul 19, 2024	Bullish	8.75	0.00R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 2, 2026	Bullish	52	1.05R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 2, 2026	Bearish	1.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 30, 2025	Bullish	50.75	1.34R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 27, 2025	Bullish	19.25	1.43R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 22, 2024	Bearish	15.75	0.44R	Stopped
Jun 11, 2024	Bullish	24.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2024	Bullish	18.25	0.03R	Stopped
Nov 17, 2023	Bearish	8.25	0.30R	Stopped
Sep 26, 2023	Bullish	3.5	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 23, 2023	Bearish	4.75	1.68R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 22, 2023	Bearish	18.75	0.97R	Stopped
May 9, 2023	Bullish	6	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 24, 2023	Bullish	14.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 20, 2023	Bearish	8.75	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 21, 2022	Bullish	24.5	2.83R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 11, 2022	Bullish	50	0.46R	Stopped
Sep 20, 2022	Bearish	40.5	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
May 20, 2022	Bearish	30.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 22, 2022	Bearish	7.25	1.21R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 17, 2022	Bearish	8.25	0.00R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 27, 2026	Bullish	21.75	1.06R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 26, 2026	Bearish	72	2.38R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 3, 2026	Bearish	49	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 4, 2025	Bullish	6	2.38R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 10, 2025	Bearish	22.75	0.75R	Stopped
Aug 11, 2025	Bearish	27.75	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 15, 2024	Bearish	31	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 11, 2024	Bullish	22.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 29, 2024	Bearish	3.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 11, 2024	Bullish	55.75	0.36R	Stopped
Oct 4, 2023	Bullish	25.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 11, 2023	Bearish	6.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 22, 2023	Bearish	30.25	0.18R	Stopped
Jun 23, 2023	Bullish	21.5	0.12R	Stopped
May 4, 2023	Bullish	16	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 14, 2022	Bullish	41.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 6, 2022	Bullish	13.5	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 15, 2021	Bearish	6	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 11, 2021	Bearish	4.75	1.58R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 25, 2021	Bullish	27.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (9)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Oct 18, 2022	Bullish	232.5	1.31R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 9, 2020	Bearish	36.75	0.31R	Stopped
Jun 6, 2019	Bullish	99	1.59R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 22, 2019	Bearish	44.5	0.54R	Stopped
Jul 10, 2014	Bearish	12.75	0.73R	Stopped
May 16, 2014	Bearish	31.75	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 14, 2012	Bearish	10	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 28, 2011	Bullish	48	0.19R	Stopped
May 28, 2010	Bullish	52.5	0.70R	Flat

Sample AB=CD Completions (11)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
May 7, 2025	Bearish	76	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 9, 2020	Bearish	31.25	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 6, 2019	Bullish	116.25	1.37R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 26, 2019	Bearish	42.75	0.74R	Stopped
Jun 22, 2017	Bearish	19.5	1.53R	Ran ≥1R
May 16, 2014	Bearish	23.5	0.44R	Stopped
Dec 24, 2012	Bearish	25.25	1.06R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 14, 2012	Bearish	3.75	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 27, 2011	Bullish	63.25	0.15R	Stopped
May 30, 2011	Bullish	21.75	0.63R	Stopped
May 20, 2011	Bullish	15.25	0.00R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bearish	2	—	Open
Apr 29, 2026	Bearish	1.9	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	3.5	1.51R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	1.7	1.88R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	8.3	0.39R	Stopped
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	3.2	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	1.2	2.08R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	2.7	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	1.8	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	2.2	1.91R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	2.7	0.56R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.9	1.67R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	4.8	0.79R	Flat
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	2.5	0.12R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	2.4	0.04R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	1	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	3.7	1.78R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	5.7	1.93R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	3.9	1.26R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bearish	6.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	1.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	11.7	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	1.3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	3.2	2.28R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	2.4	0.46R	Stopped
Apr 17, 2026	Bearish	3.3	2.64R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bearish	6	1.07R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2026	Bearish	6.6	0.27R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	7.4	0.55R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2026	Bearish	3.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 6, 2026	Bearish	4.8	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	12.7	1.19R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	5.2	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bullish	23	1.33R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 30, 2026	Bearish	12.7	2.37R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 30, 2026	Bearish	12.9	0.44R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	8	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 26, 2026	Bearish	9.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	21.8	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	1.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bullish	3.4	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 10, 2026	Bearish	11.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 7, 2026	Bullish	28.5	2.99R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	14	0.36R	Stopped
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	34.4	0.01R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	14.9	1.00R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	21.6	0.41R	Stopped
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	9.1	1.76R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	13.8	2.04R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 9, 2026	Bullish	35.7	1.46R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 4, 2026	Bullish	40.6	1.66R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 25, 2026	Bearish	10.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 17, 2026	Bearish	30.3	1.06R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	6.9	1.52R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 23, 2026	Bearish	15.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 19, 2026	Bullish	9.1	1.67R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 8, 2026	Bearish	9.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 26, 2025	Bearish	13.7	1.96R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 16, 2025	Bullish	7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	13.3	0.74R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	28.2	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 7, 2026	Bullish	50.3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	14.3	0.64R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	17.7	0.68R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	31.5	0.33R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bearish	32.6	1.22R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 11, 2026	Bullish	11.5	0.55R	Stopped
Mar 9, 2026	Bullish	41.6	2.10R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 25, 2026	Bearish	10.7	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 24, 2026	Bullish	16.3	0.72R	Stopped
Feb 5, 2026	Bullish	77.7	1.02R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 6, 2026	Bearish	3.1	1.39R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 29, 2025	Bullish	17.5	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 4, 2025	Bearish	4.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 17, 2025	Bullish	9.2	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 7, 2025	Bearish	6.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 7, 2025	Bearish	13.6	0.37R	Stopped
Nov 5, 2025	Bearish	7.2	2.82R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 31, 2025	Bearish	21.3	2.66R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	32.3	0.39R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bearish	25	1.90R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 11, 2026	Bullish	29.1	0.22R	Stopped
Feb 9, 2026	Bearish	8.4	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 5, 2026	Bullish	133.8	0.17R	Stopped
Nov 20, 2025	Bullish	31.1	1.34R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 7, 2025	Bearish	19.3	0.64R	Stopped
Nov 7, 2025	Bearish	8.9	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 31, 2025	Bearish	24.2	2.22R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 25, 2025	Bearish	9.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 7, 2025	Bullish	19.3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 29, 2025	Bearish	8.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 7, 2025	Bullish	21.6	1.37R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 12, 2025	Bearish	15.4	0.37R	Stopped
Jun 11, 2025	Bearish	28.6	0.50R	Stopped
Jan 9, 2025	Bearish	9.8	0.53R	Stopped
Dec 31, 2024	Bearish	7	0.76R	Stopped
Dec 23, 2024	Bullish	2.5	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 14, 2024	Bearish	8.9	2.35R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 18, 2024	Bearish	9.1	0.38R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	68	—	Open
Jul 8, 2025	Bullish	39.7	0.14R	Stopped
Jun 11, 2025	Bearish	9.9	0.79R	Stopped
Sep 25, 2024	Bearish	10.8	0.52R	Stopped
Mar 18, 2024	Bullish	14.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 13, 2024	Bullish	14.9	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 15, 2023	Bullish	2.8	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 1, 2023	Bearish	15.8	0.11R	Stopped
Jan 4, 2023	Bearish	5	0.20R	Stopped
Oct 20, 2022	Bullish	8.8	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 11, 2022	Bearish	23	0.70R	Flat
May 10, 2022	Bullish	5.4	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 18, 2022	Bearish	8.4	0.50R	Stopped
Jan 19, 2022	Bullish	9.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 21, 2021	Bearish	10.9	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 3, 2021	Bullish	8.8	2.45R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 24, 2021	Bearish	13.9	2.27R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 24, 2021	Bullish	6.8	2.31R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 9, 2021	Bullish	27	1.40R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 19, 2020	Bearish	14.9	0.07R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (16)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Dec 4, 2025	Bearish	61.7	0.65R	Stopped
Jun 19, 2025	Bearish	88.9	1.54R	Ran ≥1R
May 20, 2025	Bullish	169.3	1.09R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 23, 2024	Bearish	21.7	2.12R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 7, 2024	Bearish	99	0.03R	Stopped
Jun 20, 2023	Bullish	12	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2021	Bullish	45	0.02R	Stopped
Dec 9, 2019	Bearish	24	0.07R	Stopped
Mar 31, 2016	Bullish	26.8	1.41R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 26, 2014	Bullish	25.4	0.58R	Stopped
Oct 7, 2013	Bullish	45.5	0.18R	Stopped
Jul 16, 2013	Bearish	6.8	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 10, 2012	Bullish	48.4	0.41R	Stopped
Aug 2, 2010	Bullish	24.7	2.51R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 29, 2010	Bullish	25.2	2.52R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 22, 2008	Bearish	35.2	0.53R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bearish	0.12	0.50R	Stopped
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	0.14	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	0.24	0.08R	Flat
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	0.23	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.1	0.50R	Stopped
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	0.15	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	0.06	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.18	0.56R	Flat
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.21	0.14R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.3	0.30R	Flat
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	0.17	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.17	0.12R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	0.24	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	0.39	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	0.22	1.68R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.39	0.56R	Flat
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	0.28	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.1	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.09	2.67R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bearish	0.7	1.11R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	0.42	1.38R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.11	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	0.42	0.19R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.56	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.31	0.68R	Flat
Apr 17, 2026	Bearish	0.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 17, 2026	Bullish	0.06	1.83R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2026	Bullish	0.29	0.07R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2026	Bearish	0.47	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2026	Bearish	0.53	1.98R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	0.74	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2026	Bearish	0.41	0.17R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	0.4	1.47R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 30, 2026	Bearish	0.19	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 26, 2026	Bullish	0.3	2.40R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 26, 2026	Bullish	0.41	1.17R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	0.24	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 19, 2026	Bearish	0.8	0.85R	Stopped
Mar 18, 2026	Bearish	1	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	0.51	0.31R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	0.47	0.49R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	0.8	0.44R	Stopped
Apr 7, 2026	Bullish	0.79	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	0.68	0.15R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	0.3	1.33R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 26, 2026	Bearish	0.51	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 20, 2026	Bearish	0.67	0.24R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bearish	0.33	0.85R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	0.69	1.01R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 26, 2026	Bearish	0.22	1.36R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 20, 2026	Bullish	0.14	2.79R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 30, 2026	Bearish	0.54	0.48R	Stopped
Jan 29, 2026	Bearish	0.62	2.69R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 27, 2026	Bearish	0.05	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 27, 2026	Bullish	0.15	0.07R	Stopped
Jan 21, 2026	Bearish	0.24	0.54R	Flat
Jan 14, 2026	Bearish	0.26	0.50R	Stopped
Jan 14, 2026	Bullish	0.06	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 12, 2026	Bullish	0.18	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 2, 2026	Bullish	0.19	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 9, 2026	Bearish	0.75	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	0.57	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	0.39	1.21R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 30, 2026	Bearish	0.09	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 30, 2026	Bullish	0.08	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 27, 2026	Bullish	0.05	1.40R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 26, 2026	Bullish	0.44	0.39R	Stopped
Jan 21, 2026	Bearish	0.15	1.47R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 28, 2025	Bearish	0.2	1.95R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 14, 2025	Bearish	0.24	1.42R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 16, 2025	Bullish	0.36	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 22, 2025	Bullish	0.41	0.85R	Stopped
Jul 11, 2025	Bearish	0.2	1.30R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 18, 2025	Bullish	0.29	1.00R	Stopped
Jun 10, 2025	Bearish	0.26	0.96R	Stopped
May 21, 2025	Bullish	0.3	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2025	Bearish	0.1	0.20R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2025	Bullish	0.33	0.94R	Stopped
Apr 11, 2025	Bearish	0.88	0.80R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2025	Bearish	0.57	0.88R	Flat

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	1.82	0.39R	Flat
Feb 27, 2026	Bearish	1.18	0.44R	Stopped
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	0.57	0.28R	Stopped
Feb 11, 2026	Bullish	0.6	2.52R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 27, 2026	Bullish	0.47	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 26, 2026	Bullish	0.23	0.22R	Stopped
Dec 1, 2025	Bearish	0.22	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 6, 2025	Bullish	0.47	2.47R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 2, 2025	Bearish	0.43	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 29, 2025	Bullish	0.11	0.55R	Stopped
May 29, 2025	Bearish	1.01	1.54R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 11, 2025	Bearish	0.74	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 27, 2025	Bullish	0.35	0.49R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2025	Bullish	0.47	2.17R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 13, 2025	Bullish	0.12	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2025	Bearish	0.24	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2025	Bearish	0.17	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 18, 2025	Bearish	0.15	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 27, 2025	Bullish	0.43	2.44R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 18, 2024	Bullish	0.56	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Oct 16, 2024	Bullish	1.02	0.46R	Stopped
Sep 25, 2024	Bearish	1.13	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 2, 2024	Bullish	1.15	0.10R	Stopped
Jul 23, 2024	Bullish	0.86	0.37R	Stopped
May 6, 2024	Bullish	0.87	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 29, 2024	Bearish	1.29	0.29R	Stopped
Nov 13, 2023	Bearish	0.54	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 23, 2023	Bearish	2.56	2.04R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 15, 2023	Bullish	0.42	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 11, 2023	Bearish	2.01	2.13R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 8, 2023	Bearish	0.25	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2023	Bearish	0.65	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 1, 2023	Bearish	0.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 29, 2022	Bearish	3.12	0.07R	Stopped
Jun 20, 2022	Bullish	1.92	1.48R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 21, 2022	Bullish	2.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 25, 2022	Bullish	2.12	2.27R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 22, 2021	Bullish	1.08	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 19, 2021	Bullish	2.65	0.09R	Stopped
Oct 12, 2021	Bearish	1.43	0.93R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (12)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Nov 11, 2025	Bullish	2.21	0.00R	Stopped
May 20, 2022	Bearish	2.85	0.61R	Stopped
Nov 27, 2019	Bearish	0.6	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 28, 2019	Bullish	1.73	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 19, 2017	Bearish	0.6	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 26, 2015	Bullish	2.1	0.11R	Stopped
Apr 16, 2014	Bearish	1.41	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 6, 2013	Bullish	3.51	2.11R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 7, 2012	Bullish	3.29	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 30, 2009	Bullish	5.35	2.17R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 12, 2009	Bearish	2.25	0.24R	Stopped
Jan 29, 2009	Bearish	7.02	0.64R	Flat

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	0.003	0.67R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.17R	Flat
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.007	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	0.005	0.60R	Stopped
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	0.004	0.50R	Stopped
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	0.002	0.50R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.004	0.75R	Stopped
Apr 17, 2026	Bearish	0.008	0.50R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2026	Bullish	0.005	0.60R	Flat
Apr 14, 2026	Bullish	0.008	0.75R	Flat
Apr 14, 2026	Bearish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2026	Bullish	0.004	2.25R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2026	Bullish	0.001	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2026	Bearish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2026	Bearish	0.003	2.33R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 9, 2026	Bearish	0.001	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 8, 2026	Bearish	0.003	0.67R	Flat
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	0.005	0.20R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	0.003	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 21, 2026	Bearish	0.014	0.14R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2026	Bearish	0.004	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2026	Bullish	0.009	0.67R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	0.011	0.18R	Stopped
Apr 7, 2026	Bearish	0.003	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2026	Bearish	0.009	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 2, 2026	Bearish	0.004	0.50R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bullish	0.031	0.74R	Flat
Mar 25, 2026	Bearish	0.009	0.11R	Stopped
Mar 23, 2026	Bearish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 18, 2026	Bearish	0.023	0.57R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bearish	0.017	1.71R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 10, 2026	Bullish	0.009	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 10, 2026	Bullish	0.009	0.44R	Stopped
Mar 6, 2026	Bearish	0.004	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 5, 2026	Bullish	0.033	0.39R	Flat
Mar 3, 2026	Bullish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 2, 2026	Bearish	0.003	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 24, 2026	Bullish	0.004	0.00R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.008	0.38R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bullish	0.025	0.36R	Stopped
Mar 11, 2026	Bearish	0.035	0.54R	Stopped
Mar 9, 2026	Bullish	0.066	0.56R	Stopped
Mar 6, 2026	Bullish	0.011	0.73R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2026	Bullish	0.023	0.30R	Flat
Jan 27, 2026	Bullish	0.021	0.76R	Stopped
Jan 23, 2026	Bullish	0.189	1.51R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 21, 2026	Bullish	0.078	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 17, 2025	Bearish	0.019	0.79R	Stopped
Dec 12, 2025	Bearish	0.063	0.14R	Stopped
Nov 28, 2025	Bearish	0.017	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 28, 2025	Bullish	0.014	0.79R	Stopped
Oct 22, 2025	Bearish	0.011	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 9, 2025	Bullish	0.015	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 7, 2025	Bullish	0.017	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 1, 2025	Bearish	0.012	0.08R	Stopped
Sep 29, 2025	Bearish	0.009	1.11R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 22, 2025	Bearish	0.008	2.38R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 19, 2025	Bearish	0.006	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	0.019	0.11R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2026	Bullish	0.013	0.46R	Stopped
Mar 16, 2026	Bearish	0.021	2.81R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 5, 2026	Bullish	0.033	2.82R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 24, 2026	Bullish	0.022	0.32R	Stopped
Feb 18, 2026	Bullish	0.082	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 17, 2025	Bearish	0.021	0.62R	Stopped
Nov 24, 2025	Bearish	0.022	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 29, 2025	Bullish	0.014	2.93R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 29, 2025	Bearish	0.005	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 24, 2025	Bearish	0.045	0.60R	Flat
Sep 22, 2025	Bearish	0.01	1.70R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 28, 2025	Bullish	0.025	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 19, 2025	Bullish	0.011	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 28, 2025	Bullish	0.018	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 24, 2025	Bullish	0.025	1.44R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 18, 2025	Bearish	0.017	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 27, 2025	Bearish	0.022	2.18R	Ran ≥1R
May 27, 2025	Bullish	0.023	1.57R	Ran ≥1R
May 15, 2025	Bullish	0.013	0.69R	Stopped

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	0.025	0.12R	Stopped
Nov 24, 2025	Bearish	0.056	2.77R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 23, 2025	Bullish	0.015	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 24, 2025	Bullish	0.061	0.51R	Stopped
May 27, 2025	Bearish	0.033	1.03R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 30, 2025	Bullish	0.072	2.89R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 25, 2025	Bearish	0.039	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 9, 2025	Bearish	0.06	1.37R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 28, 2024	Bullish	0.034	1.71R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 26, 2024	Bullish	0.027	0.11R	Stopped
Mar 6, 2024	Bearish	0.067	0.31R	Flat
Mar 1, 2024	Bullish	0.026	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 30, 2024	Bullish	0.02	0.80R	Stopped
Nov 27, 2023	Bullish	0.044	1.84R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 22, 2023	Bullish	0.014	0.07R	Stopped
Nov 14, 2023	Bullish	0.02	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 9, 2023	Bullish	0.023	0.70R	Stopped
Mar 23, 2023	Bullish	0.05	1.18R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 10, 2023	Bullish	0.053	0.92R	Stopped
Feb 14, 2023	Bullish	0.063	2.92R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	0.007	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 23, 2025	Bullish	0.197	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 11, 2025	Bearish	0.144	0.62R	Stopped
Aug 5, 2025	Bullish	0.081	2.12R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 10, 2025	Bullish	0.074	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 9, 2025	Bearish	0.083	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2025	Bullish	0.055	0.65R	Stopped
Mar 3, 2025	Bullish	0.235	2.44R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 25, 2025	Bullish	0.101	1.97R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 12, 2025	Bearish	0.093	0.15R	Stopped
Sep 18, 2024	Bearish	0.114	0.87R	Stopped
Sep 9, 2024	Bearish	0.097	0.73R	Stopped
Jun 12, 2024	Bearish	0.065	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 3, 2023	Bullish	0.041	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 1, 2022	Bullish	0.231	1.51R	Ran ≥1R
May 17, 2022	Bearish	0.073	0.00R	Stopped
May 5, 2021	Bearish	0.018	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2021	Bearish	0.07	0.19R	Stopped
Nov 12, 2020	Bearish	0.09	0.28R	Stopped
Sep 3, 2020	Bullish	0.083	1.29R	Ran ≥1R

Sample AB=CD Completions (13)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 16, 2025	Bearish	0.088	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 18, 2021	Bullish	0.191	1.32R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2021	Bearish	0.08	1.79R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2018	Bearish	0.046	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 22, 2018	Bearish	0.04	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 16, 2017	Bearish	0.159	2.70R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 26, 2016	Bearish	0.029	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 17, 2016	Bullish	0.089	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 21, 2012	Bullish	0.145	0.23R	Stopped
Oct 18, 2011	Bullish	0.106	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 5, 2011	Bearish	0.515	0.27R	Stopped
Aug 6, 2009	Bearish	0.409	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 29, 2008	Bearish	0.724	0.05R	Stopped

Sample backtests (6)

Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.

NQ 5m · AB=CD · 2020-2024

AB=CD · balanced

Win rate: 59.12%
Profit factor: 1.07
Max drawdown: 10.96%

998 trades View →

NQ 15m · AB=CD · 2020-2024

AB=CD · balanced

Win rate: 54.69%
Profit factor: 1.04
Max drawdown: 11.47%

320 trades View →

GC 15m · AB=CD · 2020-2024

AB=CD · balanced

Win rate: 57.24%
Profit factor: 1.05
Max drawdown: 8.70%

283 trades View →

ES 15m · AB=CD · 2020-2024

AB=CD · balanced

Win rate: 56.28%
Profit factor: 1.03
Max drawdown: 5.92%

215 trades View →

ES 5m · AB=CD · 2020-2024

AB=CD · balanced

Win rate: 53.93%
Profit factor: 0.95
Max drawdown: 12.78%

738 trades View →

GC 5m · AB=CD · 2020-2024

AB=CD · balanced

Win rate: 53.89%
Profit factor: 0.87
Max drawdown: 16.53%

848 trades View →

Backtest this pattern

Run it on your contracts, timeframes, and dates.

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