Pattern Detail

Three Drives

Q: Does the Three Drives pattern actually work?

Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed Three Drives by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.

Q: What is the Three Drives pattern success rate?

There is no single reliable figure, and the round-number rates repeated online rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or test period, and almost never state what target and stop they assume. Rather than quote folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape. The tabs show that comparison across five markets and seven timeframes.

Q: How is the Three Drives defined here?

It has no single completion ratio. The second drive extends 1.13 to 1.618 of the first pullback, the second pullback retraces 0.5 to 0.786 of the second drive, the third drive extends 1.13 to 1.618 of the second pullback, and the third drive stays close in size to the second for symmetry, all holding at once within a 5% tolerance. Pivots use 3 bars on each side and are confirmed before they count.

Three symmetric pushes to a high or low, each separated by a partial pullback, read as a climax.

Pullbacks ~0.5-0.786 of the prior drive
Drives ~1.13-1.618 of the prior pullback
Drive 3 ~ Drive 2 in size

Idealized bullish Three Drives. It completes at a low and projects a move up.

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random long entry (+1.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.10×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.0% of the time vs 44.4% for a random long entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,630 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.0%	44.4%	+1.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.1%	22.6%	+1.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.9%	12.5%	+0.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.4%	45.9%	-1.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.7%	9.7%	-0.0

1,630 occurrences · 136,704 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (+0.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.98×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.4% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry. The 0.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,776 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.4%	44.6%	+0.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.0%	24.2%	+0.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.9%	14.1%	-0.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.5%	47.6%	-1.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.2%	7.8%	+0.4

1,776 occurrences · 136,054 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

52.3%

Fragile

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (+8.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.26×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.36R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

The 8.2-point gap over the 44.1% random-entry rate clears the ±5.7-point margin of error, but it has been fading over the sample. Treat with caution.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	52.3%	44.1%	+8.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.1%	22.7%	+10.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.8%	13.1%	+5.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	35.2%	43.4%	-8.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.5%	12.5%	+0.0

287 occurrences · 30,293 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

47.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random short entry (+2.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.06×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.24R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 47.0% of the time vs 44.3% for a random short entry. The 2.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 381 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	47.0%	44.3%	+2.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.9%	24.8%	+4.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.9%	15.2%	+3.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.5%	47.0%	-0.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	6.6%	8.8%	-2.2

381 occurrences · 29,992 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

Limited sample (77). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (-3.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.06×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.3% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 3.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±11.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 77 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.3%	44.1%	-3.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.6%	24.7%	+3.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.9%	15.7%	+1.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	33.8%	42.7%	-8.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	26.0%	13.2%	+12.8

77 occurrences · 10,656 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

Limited sample (97). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.0% for a random short entry (-1.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.92×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.2% of the time vs 43.0% for a random short entry. The 1.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 97 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.2%	43.0%	-1.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.6%	25.9%	-7.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.4%	17.0%	-3.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.3%	47.1%	-4.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.5%	9.9%	+6.6

97 occurrences · 10,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

Limited sample (48). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (-0.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.99×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.18R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.8% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 0.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 48 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.8%	44.5%	-0.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.8%	24.1%	-3.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.6%	14.6%	+0.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.8%	43.5%	+2.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.4%	12.0%	-1.5

48 occurrences · 5,466 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

Limited sample (44). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random short entry (+1.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.92×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.5% of the time vs 44.0% for a random short entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±14.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 44 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.5%	44.0%	+1.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.7%	26.3%	-3.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.4%	17.3%	-5.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.2%	47.6%	-4.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.4%	8.4%	+3.0

44 occurrences · 5,325 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

28.6%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 48.1% for a random long entry (-19.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.99R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.24R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 28.6% of the time vs 48.1% for a random long entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 28 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	28.6%	48.1%	-19.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.4%	27.8%	-6.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.7%	15.9%	-5.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.4%	42.8%	+3.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	25.0%	9.1%	+15.9

28 occurrences · 2,616 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

Limited sample (33). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (+4.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.94×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 48.5% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry. The 4.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 33 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.5%	43.8%	+4.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.2%	26.7%	-8.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.2%	17.2%	-2.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.5%	50.6%	-5.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	6.1%	5.6%	+0.4

33 occurrences · 2,611 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 51.5% for a random long entry (-1.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

2.30×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.75R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.25R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 51.5% for a random long entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±69.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	51.5%	-1.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	27.9%	-27.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	13.2%	-13.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	38.1%	+11.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.4%	-10.4

2 occurrences · 423 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.1% for a random short entry (-0.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.72×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.09R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 40.1% for a random short entry. The 0.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±43.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.0%	40.1%	-0.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.0%	24.9%	-4.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.2%	-16.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	60.0%	56.6%	+3.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

5 occurrences · 401 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 49.2% for a random long entry (-49.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

2.45×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 49.2% for a random long entry. The 49.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±98.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 1 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	49.2%	-49.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	23.9%	-23.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	11.8%	-11.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	39.4%	+60.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	11.4%	-11.4

1 occurrences · 439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

28.6%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.9% for a random short entry (-12.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.75×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.99R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 28.6% of the time vs 40.9% for a random short entry. The 12.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 7 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	28.6%	40.9%	-12.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.6%	23.6%	+5.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	14.4%	-0.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	71.4%	55.8%	+15.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

7 occurrences · 403 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (-0.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.25×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.7% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 993 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.7%	44.3%	-0.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.9%	21.6%	+0.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.0%	11.6%	+0.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.9%	45.7%	+0.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.4%	10.0%	+0.4

993 occurrences · 100,574 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random short entry (-1.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.11×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.6% of the time vs 44.4% for a random short entry. The 1.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,081 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.6%	44.4%	-1.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.8%	23.0%	-0.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.2%	13.0%	+1.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	48.9%	47.3%	+1.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.5%	8.2%	+0.3

1,081 occurrences · 99,273 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (+0.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.28×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.11R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.8% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 0.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 221 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.8%	44.3%	+0.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.7%	22.4%	-0.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.1%	12.5%	+0.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.5%	43.3%	-0.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.7%	12.4%	+0.2

221 occurrences · 26,201 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.2% for a random short entry (-0.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.06×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.6% of the time vs 44.2% for a random short entry. The 0.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 275 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.6%	44.2%	-0.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.9%	23.9%	-1.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.5%	14.4%	-1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	49.1%	46.8%	+2.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	7.3%	9.0%	-1.8

275 occurrences · 25,439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

Limited sample (66). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (-3.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.99×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.03R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.9% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 3.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±12.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 66 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.9%	44.5%	-3.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.2%	24.7%	-6.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.6%	15.0%	-4.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.4%	42.4%	-3.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	19.7%	13.1%	+6.6

66 occurrences · 9,935 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

Limited sample (63). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+2.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.77×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.26R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.0% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 2.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±12.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 63 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.0%	43.3%	+2.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.3%	25.5%	+7.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	19.0%	16.4%	+2.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.4%	46.3%	-1.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.5%	10.4%	-0.9

63 occurrences · 9,497 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

Limited sample (53). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

49.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (+4.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.10×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 49.1% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 4.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 53 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	49.1%	44.3%	+4.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	15.1%	23.3%	-8.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.4%	14.2%	-4.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.6%	43.7%	-4.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.3%	12.0%	-0.7

53 occurrences · 5,306 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

Limited sample (35). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

60.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (+14.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.78×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.40R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 60.0% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 14.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 35 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	60.0%	45.2%	+14.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.9%	26.5%	-3.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	16.9%	-2.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	37.1%	46.6%	-9.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	2.9%	8.2%	-5.4

35 occurrences · 5,060 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

Limited sample (33). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

51.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (+4.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.05×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.20R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 51.5% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 4.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±17.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 33 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	51.5%	46.6%	+4.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.2%	26.0%	-4.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.2%	15.2%	-0.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.4%	44.2%	-1.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	6.1%	9.1%	-3.1

33 occurrences · 2,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

Limited sample (35). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

57.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (+11.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.29R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.21R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 57.1% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 11.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 35 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	57.1%	45.2%	+11.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.6%	28.0%	+0.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	20.0%	19.0%	+1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.0%	49.7%	-9.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	2.9%	5.1%	-2.2

35 occurrences · 2,539 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

100.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (+55.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.32×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.67R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 100.0% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 55.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±68.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	100.0%	44.6%	+55.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	18.9%	-18.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	8.5%	-8.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	0.0%	41.5%	-41.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	13.9%	-13.9

2 occurrences · 424 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

18.2%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.2% for a random short entry (-23.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.72×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.74R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 18.2% of the time vs 41.2% for a random short entry. The 23.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	18.2%	41.2%	-23.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.2%	23.8%	-5.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.2%	16.4%	+1.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	81.8%	55.6%	+26.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

11 occurrences · 408 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.2% for a random long entry (-47.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.63R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 47.2% for a random long entry. The 47.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±97.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	47.2%	-47.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	21.2%	-21.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	9.6%	-9.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	100.0%	39.2%	+60.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	13.7%	-13.7

1 occurrences · 439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

37.5%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random short entry (-5.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.84×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.01R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 37.5% of the time vs 42.6% for a random short entry. The 5.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±34.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	37.5%	42.6%	-5.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.0%	25.7%	-0.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	25.0%	16.6%	+8.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	62.5%	53.9%	+8.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.5%	-3.5

8 occurrences · 397 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.9% for a random long entry (-0.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.11×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.7% of the time vs 42.9% for a random long entry. The 0.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3,353 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.7%	42.9%	-0.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.2%	22.4%	-0.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.3%	12.8%	-0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.7%	46.3%	+0.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.5%	10.9%	-0.3

3,353 occurrences · 393,642 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (+0.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.09R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.9% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 0.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3,445 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.9%	43.6%	+0.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.5%	23.3%	-0.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.5%	13.5%	-1.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.7%	46.4%	-0.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.3%	10.0%	+0.3

3,445 occurrences · 391,020 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (-3.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.05×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.01R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.3% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 3.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 943 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.3%	43.3%	-3.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.8%	22.8%	-4.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.2%	13.0%	-2.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.8%	45.4%	+2.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.9%	11.3%	+0.6

943 occurrences · 98,903 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random short entry (+2.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.20R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.2% of the time vs 44.1% for a random short entry. The 2.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 985 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.2%	44.1%	+2.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	27.0%	23.8%	+3.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.4%	14.0%	+2.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.3%	45.9%	-0.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.5%	10.0%	-1.4

985 occurrences · 97,699 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+1.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.97×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.16R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.1% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 1.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 346 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.1%	43.3%	+1.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.1%	23.2%	-0.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.7%	13.8%	+1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.1%	44.7%	-1.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.8%	11.9%	-0.1

346 occurrences · 36,235 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random short entry (+2.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.16R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.4% of the time vs 43.9% for a random short entry. The 2.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 390 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.4%	43.9%	+2.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.1%	24.3%	+0.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.8%	14.8%	-1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.9%	45.4%	+0.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	7.7%	10.7%	-3.0

390 occurrences · 35,963 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random long entry (+5.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.96×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.20R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 48.3% of the time vs 42.6% for a random long entry. The 5.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 180 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.3%	42.6%	+5.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	27.8%	23.5%	+4.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.9%	14.0%	-0.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	36.1%	44.1%	-8.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	15.6%	13.2%	+2.3

180 occurrences · 18,830 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (+0.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.97×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.12R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.1% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 0.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 161 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.1%	43.6%	+0.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.6%	24.3%	-0.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.7%	15.2%	-1.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	41.0%	45.1%	-4.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.9%	11.3%	+3.6

161 occurrences · 18,516 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

Limited sample (64). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

53.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (+8.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.04×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.26R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 53.1% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 8.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±12.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 64 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	53.1%	44.6%	+8.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.6%	24.5%	+2.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	20.3%	14.8%	+5.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	37.5%	44.9%	-7.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.4%	10.5%	-1.1

64 occurrences · 9,536 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

Limited sample (88). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random short entry (-0.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.03×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.3% of the time vs 44.5% for a random short entry. The 0.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±10.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 88 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.3%	44.5%	-0.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.4%	25.7%	+2.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.5%	15.7%	-3.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	46.5%	+3.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	5.7%	9.0%	-3.3

88 occurrences · 9,392 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (+1.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.00×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.29R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 48.3% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 1.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±18.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 29 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 29 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.3%	46.6%	+1.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	27.6%	26.1%	+1.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	24.1%	16.1%	+8.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	51.7%	44.5%	+7.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	8.9%	-8.9

29 occurrences · 2,338 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

31.8%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.5% for a random short entry (-14.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.72×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.86R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 31.8% of the time vs 46.5% for a random short entry. The 14.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±20.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 22 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 22 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	31.8%	46.5%	-14.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.7%	26.5%	-3.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.1%	15.8%	-6.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	63.6%	46.9%	+16.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	4.5%	6.5%	-2.0

22 occurrences · 2,207 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 49.4% for a random long entry (+0.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.82×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.56R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.24R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 49.4% for a random long entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±49.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 4 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	49.4%	+0.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	50.0%	27.1%	+22.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.5%	-16.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	25.0%	41.2%	-16.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	25.0%	9.4%	+15.6

4 occurrences · 425 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

57.1%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.4% for a random short entry (+17.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.03×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.52R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 57.1% of the time vs 39.4% for a random short entry. The 17.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	57.1%	39.4%	+17.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	42.9%	21.9%	+20.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	12.7%	+1.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.9%	50.7%	-7.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.9%	-9.9

7 occurrences · 424 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+1.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.20×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.10R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.8% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3,193 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.8%	43.3%	+1.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.6%	22.9%	-0.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.7%	13.2%	-0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.2%	46.4%	-1.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.0%	10.2%	-0.3

3,193 occurrences · 371,185 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random short entry (+1.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.15×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.11R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.0% of the time vs 43.5% for a random short entry. The 1.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3,197 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.0%	43.5%	+1.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.8%	23.3%	+0.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.9%	13.5%	-0.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.5%	46.5%	-1.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.5%	9.9%	-0.4

3,197 occurrences · 369,441 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random long entry (+2.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.10×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.18R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.7% of the time vs 43.9% for a random long entry. The 2.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 889 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.7%	43.9%	+2.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.9%	23.5%	+1.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.5%	13.6%	+1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.1%	45.1%	-3.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.2%	11.0%	+0.3

889 occurrences · 92,926 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (+2.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.15×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.18R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.1% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 2.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 921 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.1%	43.7%	+2.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.3%	23.8%	+0.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.3%	14.0%	+2.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.4%	45.8%	-2.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.4%	10.5%	-0.1

921 occurrences · 92,675 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (+5.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.11×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.25R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 48.5% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry. The 5.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 324 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.5%	43.4%	+5.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.1%	23.4%	+4.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.0%	13.8%	+3.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	41.7%	44.4%	-2.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.9%	12.2%	-2.3

324 occurrences · 34,385 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (+2.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.10×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.18R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.0% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry. The 2.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 328 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.0%	43.8%	+2.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.2%	24.3%	+2.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.5%	14.4%	+2.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.1%	45.2%	-3.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.9%	11.0%	+0.9

328 occurrences · 33,999 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random long entry (+0.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.89×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.15R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.1% of the time vs 43.1% for a random long entry. The 0.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 116 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.1%	43.1%	+0.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.7%	23.2%	-2.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.8%	14.1%	-0.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	38.8%	43.3%	-4.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	18.1%	13.7%	+4.4

116 occurrences · 17,693 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-2.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.0% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 2.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 144 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.0%	43.3%	-2.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.6%	24.4%	-0.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.5%	15.3%	-2.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	49.3%	44.4%	+4.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.7%	12.3%	-2.6

144 occurrences · 17,912 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

Limited sample (62). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random long entry (-1.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.96×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.17R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.9% of the time vs 43.5% for a random long entry. The 1.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±12.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 62 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.9%	43.5%	-1.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	27.4%	23.4%	+4.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.9%	14.1%	-1.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.8%	45.5%	+1.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.3%	11.0%	+0.3

62 occurrences · 9,070 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

Limited sample (66). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.9% for a random short entry (+5.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.25×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.29R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 44.9% for a random short entry. The 5.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±12.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 66 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	44.9%	+5.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	27.3%	25.5%	+1.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.2%	15.8%	+2.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.4%	45.6%	-6.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.6%	9.5%	+1.1

66 occurrences · 9,047 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

39.1%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random long entry (-4.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.15R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 39.1% of the time vs 43.8% for a random long entry. The 4.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±20.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 23 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 23 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	39.1%	43.8%	-4.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.1%	23.4%	+2.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	8.7%	11.5%	-2.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.8%	48.7%	-0.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.0%	7.5%	+5.6

23 occurrences · 2,394 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

Limited sample (41). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

58.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (+13.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.93×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.45R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 58.5% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry. The 13.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±15.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 41 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	58.5%	44.6%	+13.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	31.7%	25.5%	+6.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.6%	15.0%	-0.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	41.5%	48.6%	-7.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	6.8%	-6.8

41 occurrences · 2,319 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.1% for a random long entry (+2.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.04×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.20R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 47.1% for a random long entry. The 2.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±48.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 4 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	47.1%	+2.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.0%	23.8%	+1.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	25.0%	14.9%	+10.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	43.0%	+7.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.0%	-10.0

4 occurrences · 442 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.8% for a random short entry (-7.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.86×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.15R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 40.8% for a random short entry. The 7.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±32.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 9 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 9 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	40.8%	-7.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.2%	20.4%	+1.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	22.2%	13.1%	+9.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	55.6%	49.5%	+6.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.1%	9.7%	+1.4

9 occurrences · 412 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.5% for a random long entry (-1.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.18×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.04R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.4% of the time vs 42.5% for a random long entry. The 1.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2,073 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.4%	42.5%	-1.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.6%	23.0%	-1.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.6%	13.6%	-1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.4%	46.8%	+0.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.2%	10.7%	+0.5

2,073 occurrences · 276,772 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random short entry (+0.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.17×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.06R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.4% of the time vs 42.4% for a random short entry. The 0.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2,044 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.4%	42.4%	+0.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.1%	23.1%	+0.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.6%	13.7%	-1.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.9%	47.0%	-1.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.6%	10.7%	+1.0

2,044 occurrences · 276,314 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (+2.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.22×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.16R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.8% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry. The 2.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 601 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.8%	43.4%	+2.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.1%	23.4%	+1.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.3%	13.9%	+1.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.6%	45.5%	-1.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.6%	11.1%	-0.5

601 occurrences · 69,030 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (+2.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.19×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.19R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.8% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 2.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 605 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.8%	43.6%	+2.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	26.6%	23.6%	+3.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.5%	14.0%	+2.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.8%	45.2%	-0.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.4%	11.3%	-1.8

605 occurrences · 68,562 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

47.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.8% for a random long entry (+4.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.19R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 47.3% of the time vs 42.8% for a random long entry. The 4.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 207 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	47.3%	42.8%	+4.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	27.5%	23.8%	+3.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.0%	14.6%	-0.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.5%	45.4%	-2.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.1%	11.9%	-1.7

207 occurrences · 25,869 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (-3.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.05R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.5% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 3.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 190 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.5%	43.7%	-3.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.9%	23.7%	-4.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.1%	14.2%	-2.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.2%	44.5%	-1.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.3%	11.8%	+4.5

190 occurrences · 25,622 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

29.9%

Backwards

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random long entry (-12.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.88×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.78R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 29.9% of the time vs 42.4% for a random long entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	29.9%	42.4%	-12.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	11.2%	24.0%	-12.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	2.8%	15.2%	-12.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	57.0%	45.4%	+11.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.1%	12.3%	+0.8

107 occurrences · 13,514 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+3.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.19R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.7% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 3.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 105 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.7%	43.3%	+3.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.9%	24.2%	-1.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.4%	15.2%	-2.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.0%	44.1%	-5.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.3%	12.6%	+1.7

105 occurrences · 13,523 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

Limited sample (64). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random long entry (+6.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.00×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.21R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 44.0% for a random long entry. The 6.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±12.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 64 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	44.0%	+6.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	29.7%	24.4%	+5.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.1%	15.0%	-0.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.6%	46.4%	-5.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.4%	9.6%	-0.2

64 occurrences · 6,841 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

Limited sample (52). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

59.6%

Reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+16.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.93×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.42R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room 59.6% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry — a 16.3-point gap, wider than the ±13.5-point margin of error from chance, and it holds across the sample. A real, if modest, tendency to offer more room than the market alone.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	59.6%	43.3%	+16.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	42.3%	25.0%	+17.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	21.2%	14.7%	+6.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	36.5%	46.5%	-10.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	3.8%	10.1%	-6.3

52 occurrences · 6,967 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

53.8%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.1% for a random long entry (+7.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.86×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.41R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 53.8% of the time vs 46.1% for a random long entry. The 7.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±19.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 26 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 26 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	53.8%	46.1%	+7.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	34.6%	27.3%	+7.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	23.1%	15.5%	+7.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.3%	47.0%	-4.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	3.8%	6.9%	-3.1

26 occurrences · 1,688 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

39.1%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-4.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.86×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.97R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 39.1% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 4.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±20.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 23 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	39.1%	43.3%	-4.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	13.0%	22.3%	-9.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	8.7%	12.5%	-3.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	52.2%	48.0%	+4.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.7%	8.7%	-0.0

23 occurrences · 1,722 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

71.4%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 53.3% for a random long entry (+18.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.78×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.67R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.32R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 71.4% of the time vs 53.3% for a random long entry. The 18.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±37.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	71.4%	53.3%	+18.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.6%	29.5%	-0.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	28.6%	16.5%	+12.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	28.6%	39.8%	-11.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	7.0%	-7.0

7 occurrences · 400 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Three Drives

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random short entry (+6.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.30R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 43.1% for a random short entry. The 6.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±34.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	43.1%	+6.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.0%	19.0%	+6.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.5%	11.8%	+0.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	37.5%	46.5%	-9.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.5%	10.4%	+2.1

8 occurrences · 415 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Three Drives is the most visual pattern in the family. It is three successive pushes in the same direction, each reaching a new extreme, separated by two partial pullbacks. There is no single completion ratio. The signature is the rhythm: three matched drives and two matched corrections that give the structure its symmetry.

How to spot it

A first drive into a new extreme, then a partial pullback, then a second drive that extends 1.13 to 1.618 of that pullback.
A second pullback that retraces 0.5 to 0.786 of the second drive, then a third drive extending 1.13 to 1.618 of it.
The third drive stays close in size to the second, so the three pushes look roughly equal and the two corrections match.
The structure completes at the third drive’s extreme, a swing low in an uptrend (a buy) or a swing high in a downtrend (a sell).

The chart above marks the points on a real occurrence, with the ratio of each leg.

Why it matters

Three matched pushes into the same extreme are read as a climax. By the third drive the move has stretched a long way, each successive push takes more effort to make less progress, and the symmetry suggests the trend is running on fumes. The completion fades the third drive, betting the fourth push does not come, and the stop sits just beyond the final extreme.

It fails when the third drive is not the last. Strong trends can print four, five, or more drives, and fading the third leaves a trade against a move that keeps going. Symmetry is also in the eye of the reader, so loose settings find Three Drives that are not really there.

The honest question is not whether the shape can be drawn on a chart, it always can after the fact, but whether a completion actually leads anywhere. That is what the data below measures.

Does it actually work?

A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the question is not “did it win” but “how much room did the move offer before the structure was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.

For each completion we measure the room price offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random swing pivot of the same kind would have done. A Three Drives that turns up from a swing low is judged against ordinary swing lows; one that turns down from a swing high, against ordinary swing highs. When the completion offers more room more often than those random swings, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.

Harmonic structures are rare, so read the sample size in view. On the slower timeframes a Three Drives swing completes only single digits of times, or not at all, while the faster timeframes give a larger sample. Thin samples are flagged for you.

How we measured it

Entry is the close of the bar that confirms the third drive, the earliest a trader could act without hindsight.
One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close to the third drive’s extreme, the swing extreme the structure completes at. A move back through the third drive’s extreme says the pattern has failed.
We follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before the third drive gave way.
The comparison is a random swing pivot of the same side, which already sits at a turning point with a tight stop. That keeps it apples-to-apples: the question is whether a Three Drives swing runs further than an ordinary swing of the same shape, not whether a tight stop flatters the numbers.

What this page does not cover

A profit target. Harmonic tradition puts one at a Fibonacci retracement, but where you take profit is a strategy choice, so this measures only the room the structure tends to offer.
A trend filter, or confluence with support, resistance, or a higher-timeframe level, which traders normally use to weight a completion.
A guarantee. A valid shape on the chart is a setup, not a certainty. What it tends to do next is exactly what the numbers above describe.

FAQ

Does the Three Drives pattern actually work?

Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed Three Drives by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.

What is the Three Drives pattern success rate?

There is no single reliable figure, and the round-number rates repeated online rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or test period, and almost never state what target and stop they assume. Rather than quote folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape. The tabs show that comparison across five markets and seven timeframes.

How is the Three Drives defined here?

It has no single completion ratio. The second drive extends 1.13 to 1.618 of the first pullback, the second pullback retraces 0.5 to 0.786 of the second drive, the third drive extends 1.13 to 1.618 of the second pullback, and the third drive stays close in size to the second for symmetry, all holding at once within a 5% tolerance. Pivots use 3 bars on each side and are confirmed before they count.

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	30.75	0.13R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	18.75	0.99R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	19.75	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	20.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	22	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bearish	32.5	1.28R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	15.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	22.25	0.13R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	19	0.33R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	27.75	0.10R	Stopped
Apr 17, 2026	Bearish	11.25	1.78R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bearish	6.75	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2026	Bearish	2.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	25.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	11.25	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	15.5	1.52R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	14.75	1.44R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	13.75	0.42R	Stopped
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	26.75	0.42R	Stopped
Mar 26, 2026	Bullish	9.25	0.78R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	51.25	1.01R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2026	Bearish	24.5	0.74R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	37	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 13, 2026	Bullish	37	2.18R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 11, 2026	Bullish	17	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 11, 2026	Bearish	88.75	2.29R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 24, 2026	Bullish	15.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 19, 2026	Bullish	66.75	0.02R	Stopped
Feb 17, 2026	Bullish	59.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	18.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 30, 2026	Bullish	65.25	0.68R	Stopped
Jan 27, 2026	Bullish	36.25	0.70R	Flat
Jan 26, 2026	Bearish	35	0.08R	Stopped
Jan 26, 2026	Bearish	12.25	2.90R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 13, 2026	Bullish	50.75	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 12, 2026	Bearish	9.5	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 12, 2026	Bearish	13.25	1.68R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 8, 2026	Bullish	40.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 19, 2025	Bearish	3.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 11, 2025	Bearish	25.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	53.25	0.67R	Stopped
Oct 9, 2025	Bullish	52.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 27, 2025	Bearish	89	0.02R	Stopped
Jul 23, 2025	Bearish	33.5	0.63R	Stopped
Jul 11, 2025	Bullish	123.75	0.28R	Flat
Jun 10, 2025	Bearish	27.75	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 12, 2025	Bearish	147	1.60R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 16, 2025	Bullish	85.25	0.57R	Stopped
Sep 30, 2024	Bullish	77.25	0.64R	Stopped
Sep 13, 2024	Bearish	18.5	0.32R	Stopped
Jul 29, 2024	Bearish	155.25	0.70R	Flat
Jun 7, 2024	Bullish	46.25	2.51R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 18, 2024	Bullish	11.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 11, 2024	Bearish	18	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 27, 2024	Bullish	68.75	0.25R	Stopped
Nov 16, 2023	Bullish	78.25	0.41R	Flat
Oct 5, 2023	Bearish	119.25	1.01R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 4, 2023	Bearish	22.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 1, 2023	Bearish	32.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 24, 2023	Bullish	73	0.56R	Flat

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 26, 2026	Bearish	37.75	1.54R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 9, 2025	Bearish	93.75	0.96R	Stopped
Jul 11, 2025	Bullish	87	0.82R	Stopped
Jan 2, 2025	Bullish	127.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 12, 2024	Bullish	133.75	0.60R	Stopped
Oct 8, 2024	Bearish	37	1.95R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 18, 2024	Bullish	23.5	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 28, 2024	Bullish	85	1.31R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 11, 2023	Bearish	11.75	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 26, 2023	Bullish	13.5	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2023	Bullish	51.75	0.94R	Stopped
Nov 21, 2022	Bullish	35.75	0.66R	Stopped
Mar 28, 2022	Bearish	83.75	1.52R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 28, 2021	Bearish	31.25	0.06R	Stopped
Oct 13, 2021	Bearish	29.5	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 11, 2021	Bullish	40.25	0.72R	Stopped
Jun 21, 2021	Bullish	147.25	0.91R	Flat
Mar 29, 2021	Bearish	97.25	0.27R	Stopped
Feb 25, 2021	Bearish	177.5	2.14R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 17, 2020	Bearish	146	0.25R	Flat

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Oct 9, 2025	Bearish	158.75	0.10R	Stopped
Sep 11, 2025	Bearish	24.5	0.18R	Stopped
Oct 8, 2024	Bearish	36.5	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 29, 2024	Bullish	349.5	0.18R	Stopped
Apr 10, 2024	Bullish	66.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 4, 2023	Bullish	108	2.63R	Ran ≥1R
May 17, 2023	Bearish	39.75	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2023	Bullish	82.25	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 18, 2022	Bearish	220.75	0.98R	Flat
Aug 11, 2021	Bullish	40.25	0.50R	Stopped
Jun 23, 2021	Bearish	34.5	0.54R	Stopped
Feb 1, 2021	Bullish	253	1.84R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 14, 2020	Bullish	395.25	0.38R	Stopped
Jul 10, 2020	Bearish	53.5	0.14R	Stopped
Jun 19, 2020	Bearish	132.75	0.41R	Stopped
Apr 30, 2020	Bearish	83	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 18, 2020	Bearish	70	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 14, 2020	Bearish	13.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 7, 2019	Bullish	38	0.01R	Stopped
Oct 26, 2018	Bullish	141	0.65R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (5)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 16, 2026	Bearish	323.25	1.83R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 1, 2024	Bearish	662.5	0.03R	Stopped
Oct 23, 2017	Bearish	31	2.87R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 16, 2016	Bearish	51.75	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 18, 2008	Bullish	28.25	1.17R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (6)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Oct 1, 2024	Bearish	539	0.27R	Stopped
Jan 18, 2017	Bearish	12.75	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 16, 2016	Bearish	47.5	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 29, 2014	Bearish	36.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 27, 2014	Bearish	125.75	0.72R	Stopped
Nov 18, 2008	Bullish	44.25	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bearish	3.5	0.21R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	4.25	0.82R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	2.75	0.09R	Stopped
Apr 16, 2026	Bullish	7	1.25R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bullish	4.25	0.88R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	4.75	0.53R	Stopped
Apr 10, 2026	Bearish	1.75	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	1.25	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	2.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	6.25	0.88R	Stopped
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	9.75	0.10R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	11.25	1.09R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 26, 2026	Bearish	2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 25, 2026	Bearish	8	0.47R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2026	Bearish	7.75	0.55R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	3.75	0.33R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bearish	14.25	0.39R	Stopped
Mar 23, 2026	Bearish	4.5	0.61R	Stopped
Mar 23, 2026	Bearish	8.5	0.50R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	5.5	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	9.25	1.43R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 13, 2026	Bullish	10.25	1.71R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 4, 2026	Bearish	4	0.38R	Stopped
Feb 19, 2026	Bullish	9.25	1.73R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 18, 2026	Bearish	7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 17, 2026	Bullish	12	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 15, 2026	Bullish	7	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 14, 2026	Bullish	11	0.75R	Flat
Jan 8, 2026	Bullish	7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 8, 2026	Bearish	9.75	1.38R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 5, 2026	Bullish	3.5	1.79R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 2, 2026	Bullish	14.5	0.57R	Stopped
Dec 22, 2025	Bearish	5.75	1.04R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 11, 2025	Bearish	7	0.14R	Stopped
Dec 3, 2025	Bearish	4	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 24, 2025	Bearish	27.5	0.13R	Stopped
Nov 21, 2025	Bullish	21.75	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 19, 2025	Bearish	1.75	2.14R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 26, 2026	Bearish	3.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 23, 2025	Bearish	1.5	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 21, 2025	Bullish	15.75	1.41R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 19, 2025	Bearish	51.25	0.70R	Stopped
Aug 21, 2025	Bullish	21	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 10, 2025	Bearish	4.5	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 10, 2025	Bearish	4.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 11, 2025	Bullish	58.5	0.90R	Flat
Feb 27, 2025	Bullish	29.5	0.95R	Stopped
Feb 4, 2025	Bearish	23.5	0.17R	Stopped
Sep 10, 2024	Bearish	15.75	2.37R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 22, 2024	Bullish	16.75	0.25R	Stopped
Aug 12, 2024	Bearish	9.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 9, 2024	Bearish	25.25	0.49R	Stopped
Jun 5, 2024	Bearish	5.75	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 26, 2024	Bullish	6.25	0.44R	Stopped
Nov 17, 2023	Bearish	4.5	0.56R	Stopped
Oct 5, 2023	Bearish	16.25	1.83R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 17, 2023	Bullish	13.5	1.02R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 26, 2023	Bullish	9.5	0.37R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 27, 2026	Bullish	37.75	0.39R	Stopped
Feb 4, 2026	Bullish	36.25	0.88R	Stopped
Aug 18, 2025	Bullish	6.25	1.80R	Ran ≥1R
May 30, 2025	Bullish	50.75	1.34R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 27, 2025	Bullish	19.25	1.43R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 22, 2024	Bearish	15.75	0.44R	Stopped
Sep 10, 2024	Bearish	12	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 15, 2024	Bearish	7.75	0.19R	Stopped
Oct 17, 2023	Bearish	30.25	2.34R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 2, 2023	Bullish	4.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 23, 2023	Bearish	4.75	1.68R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 9, 2023	Bullish	25	1.66R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 8, 2023	Bullish	13.25	2.04R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 26, 2023	Bullish	4.75	1.74R	Ran ≥1R
May 17, 2023	Bullish	16.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2023	Bullish	17.5	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 20, 2022	Bullish	30.25	1.04R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 4, 2022	Bearish	18.25	2.44R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 22, 2022	Bullish	38.5	0.93R	Stopped
Dec 9, 2021	Bearish	17.75	1.15R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 26, 2026	Bearish	72	2.38R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 4, 2025	Bearish	6.25	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2024	Bearish	3.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 9, 2023	Bullish	28.75	1.31R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 8, 2023	Bullish	24.25	0.63R	Stopped
Jun 27, 2023	Bullish	11	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 23, 2023	Bullish	21.5	0.12R	Stopped
Jun 22, 2023	Bullish	14.75	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2023	Bullish	22	0.32R	Stopped
Mar 21, 2023	Bearish	13.5	0.54R	Stopped
Feb 8, 2023	Bullish	31.75	1.16R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 18, 2022	Bearish	42.75	1.85R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 25, 2022	Bearish	12.5	1.38R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 11, 2021	Bearish	4.75	1.58R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 17, 2020	Bearish	6.25	0.40R	Stopped
Sep 14, 2020	Bullish	77.75	0.42R	Flat
Aug 19, 2020	Bearish	17.75	1.51R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 17, 2020	Bearish	16.75	1.09R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 14, 2020	Bearish	9.75	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 23, 2020	Bullish	15.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (12)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 16, 2026	Bearish	34.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 1, 2024	Bearish	89.5	0.15R	Stopped
Oct 7, 2021	Bullish	149.25	1.73R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2019	Bearish	8	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 31, 2017	Bearish	29.25	0.02R	Stopped
Jul 29, 2014	Bearish	10.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 21, 2014	Bearish	10.25	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 10, 2014	Bearish	12.75	0.73R	Stopped
May 16, 2014	Bearish	31.75	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 26, 2012	Bearish	29	0.79R	Stopped
Aug 10, 2012	Bearish	6.5	0.38R	Stopped
Oct 7, 2011	Bullish	81.75	1.62R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (8)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 11, 2019	Bearish	7.5	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 31, 2017	Bearish	21.5	0.38R	Stopped
May 16, 2014	Bearish	23.5	0.44R	Stopped
Dec 24, 2012	Bearish	25.25	1.06R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 10, 2012	Bearish	0.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 24, 2012	Bearish	42.5	0.17R	Stopped
May 30, 2011	Bullish	21.75	0.63R	Stopped
Sep 22, 2009	Bearish	5.25	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bearish	3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	1.7	1.88R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.9	1.67R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	4.8	0.79R	Flat
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	2.3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	3.5	0.63R	Flat
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	4.4	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	1.3	1.38R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	2.2	1.45R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	2.8	1.82R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	2.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	5.2	2.06R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	2.7	0.78R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	4.1	0.12R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	3.5	2.31R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	3.1	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 17, 2026	Bullish	2.9	1.10R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bearish	2.9	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2026	Bullish	1.7	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2026	Bullish	3.6	0.42R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	1.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	4.4	1.09R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	8.3	1.54R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	5.8	0.62R	Stopped
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	3.2	1.41R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	7.5	1.17R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	17.1	1.13R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	5.6	0.05R	Stopped
Apr 17, 2026	Bullish	3.2	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2026	Bullish	6.6	0.73R	Stopped
Apr 14, 2026	Bearish	4.4	0.66R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	7.4	0.55R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	4.9	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 7, 2026	Bullish	12.2	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	7.4	2.01R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 26, 2026	Bearish	9.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	21.8	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 20, 2026	Bearish	27	0.09R	Stopped
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	9.5	0.31R	Stopped
Mar 18, 2026	Bearish	14.7	1.28R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 10, 2026	Bullish	18.8	0.82R	Flat
Apr 7, 2026	Bullish	28.5	2.99R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	14.9	1.00R	Stopped
Mar 9, 2026	Bullish	35.7	1.46R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 6, 2026	Bearish	23.6	0.92R	Stopped
Feb 25, 2026	Bearish	10.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 20, 2026	Bearish	16.4	1.27R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	10.2	1.40R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	6.9	1.52R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	21.4	0.24R	Stopped
Feb 10, 2026	Bearish	13	2.33R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 3, 2026	Bearish	35.1	0.45R	Stopped
Jan 19, 2026	Bearish	8.4	1.48R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 13, 2026	Bullish	19.1	1.87R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 7, 2026	Bearish	8.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 26, 2025	Bearish	13.7	1.96R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 4, 2025	Bearish	9.9	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 26, 2025	Bullish	3.1	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 21, 2025	Bullish	5.3	0.98R	Stopped
Nov 17, 2025	Bullish	18	0.63R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	41.5	0.07R	Stopped
Mar 9, 2026	Bullish	41.6	2.10R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 4, 2026	Bearish	10.5	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 4, 2026	Bearish	17.6	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 26, 2026	Bullish	6.3	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 20, 2026	Bearish	10.3	2.62R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 7, 2026	Bearish	9.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 6, 2026	Bearish	3.1	1.39R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 9, 2025	Bearish	15.5	0.42R	Flat
Nov 26, 2025	Bearish	2.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 21, 2025	Bearish	19.1	1.55R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 21, 2025	Bullish	29.6	1.80R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 7, 2025	Bearish	6.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 19, 2025	Bullish	19.9	0.67R	Flat
Jun 9, 2025	Bearish	5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 28, 2025	Bearish	6	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 2, 2025	Bearish	11.6	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2025	Bearish	7.8	0.08R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2025	Bearish	3	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 12, 2025	Bullish	7.5	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	56.6	0.60R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	32.3	0.39R	Stopped
Mar 4, 2026	Bearish	56.7	0.74R	Flat
Feb 5, 2026	Bullish	133.8	0.17R	Stopped
Jan 6, 2026	Bearish	11.9	0.84R	Stopped
Dec 9, 2025	Bearish	10.3	2.53R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 5, 2025	Bearish	8.2	0.35R	Stopped
Nov 26, 2025	Bearish	19.6	0.06R	Stopped
Nov 7, 2025	Bearish	19.3	0.64R	Stopped
Oct 23, 2025	Bearish	17.6	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 10, 2025	Bearish	23.7	0.19R	Stopped
Aug 27, 2025	Bearish	7.7	1.87R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 19, 2025	Bullish	23.7	0.41R	Stopped
Jun 12, 2025	Bearish	15.4	0.37R	Stopped
Jun 6, 2025	Bullish	7.4	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2025	Bullish	23.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 9, 2024	Bearish	15	0.03R	Stopped
Nov 27, 2024	Bearish	19.2	1.05R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 24, 2024	Bearish	11.2	0.49R	Stopped
Jul 24, 2024	Bearish	5	0.76R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	58.4	0.11R	Stopped
Aug 20, 2025	Bullish	35	1.32R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 8, 2025	Bullish	39.7	0.14R	Stopped
Aug 18, 2023	Bullish	8.4	0.40R	Stopped
Jun 30, 2023	Bullish	14.2	1.98R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 25, 2023	Bearish	7.7	2.01R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 4, 2023	Bearish	5	0.20R	Stopped
Aug 10, 2022	Bearish	12.1	0.09R	Stopped
Sep 30, 2021	Bullish	8.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 4, 2021	Bullish	14.2	0.56R	Stopped
Nov 25, 2019	Bullish	6.8	0.16R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2019	Bearish	6.5	2.63R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 5, 2019	Bullish	7.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 21, 2018	Bearish	8	0.49R	Stopped
Jun 8, 2018	Bearish	7.5	0.77R	Flat
May 25, 2018	Bearish	2.2	0.00R	Stopped
May 18, 2018	Bullish	4.7	0.81R	Stopped
Apr 30, 2018	Bullish	8.8	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 20, 2017	Bearish	2.4	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 3, 2017	Bearish	9.3	1.06R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (10)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jun 19, 2025	Bearish	88.9	1.54R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 23, 2024	Bearish	21.7	2.12R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 13, 2020	Bearish	24.9	0.55R	Stopped
Apr 26, 2016	Bearish	27.6	0.21R	Stopped
Nov 28, 2012	Bearish	32.8	2.63R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2012	Bullish	48.4	0.41R	Stopped
Nov 11, 2011	Bearish	15.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 2, 2010	Bullish	24.7	2.51R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2010	Bullish	27.9	2.63R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 11, 2009	Bearish	26.7	0.61R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	0.11	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 29, 2026	Bearish	0.12	0.50R	Stopped
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	0.2	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.1	0.50R	Stopped
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	0.15	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	0.06	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	0.53	1.43R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	0.17	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.39	0.56R	Flat
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.1	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.09	2.67R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.04	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	0.11	0.91R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	0.24	1.04R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.01	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.04	1.50R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.04	1.75R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.06	0.33R	Stopped
Apr 17, 2026	Bullish	0.1	1.20R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bullish	0.24	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	0.44	1.23R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.56	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 10, 2026	Bearish	0.21	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	0.91	1.44R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	0.74	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	0.23	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	0.29	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 23, 2026	Bearish	0.27	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2026	Bearish	1	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2026	Bearish	0.35	0.34R	Stopped
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	0.9	1.34R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 17, 2026	Bearish	0.81	0.28R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bearish	0.5	0.12R	Stopped
Mar 13, 2026	Bullish	0.33	0.24R	Stopped
Mar 13, 2026	Bearish	0.23	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 4, 2026	Bullish	0.33	1.58R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 3, 2026	Bullish	0.84	2.13R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 27, 2026	Bearish	0.11	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 23, 2026	Bearish	0.05	0.40R	Stopped
Feb 23, 2026	Bullish	0.08	0.75R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	0.8	0.44R	Stopped
Apr 7, 2026	Bullish	2.58	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2026	Bearish	0.5	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bearish	1.71	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 17, 2026	Bearish	0.28	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	0.01	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 13, 2026	Bullish	1.71	0.94R	Stopped
Feb 20, 2026	Bullish	0.29	1.93R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 20, 2026	Bullish	0.14	2.79R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 27, 2026	Bullish	0.15	0.07R	Stopped
Dec 31, 2025	Bullish	0.11	0.09R	Stopped
Dec 30, 2025	Bullish	0.3	1.03R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 8, 2025	Bullish	0.14	0.71R	Stopped
Oct 30, 2025	Bullish	0.27	0.67R	Stopped
Oct 22, 2025	Bearish	0.16	0.19R	Stopped
Oct 8, 2025	Bearish	0.42	0.67R	Stopped
Oct 7, 2025	Bullish	0.31	0.84R	Stopped
Oct 3, 2025	Bearish	0.04	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 25, 2025	Bullish	0.14	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 4, 2025	Bullish	0.44	1.23R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 24, 2026	Bearish	1.8	2.90R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 6, 2026	Bullish	0.8	1.84R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 27, 2026	Bullish	0.05	1.40R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 26, 2026	Bullish	0.44	0.39R	Stopped
Dec 30, 2025	Bullish	0.27	2.22R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 28, 2025	Bearish	0.2	1.95R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 21, 2025	Bearish	0.37	0.08R	Stopped
Aug 18, 2025	Bearish	0.16	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 29, 2025	Bearish	0.45	0.47R	Stopped
Jun 9, 2025	Bearish	0.03	0.00R	Stopped
May 21, 2025	Bullish	0.3	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2025	Bearish	0.57	0.88R	Flat
Mar 3, 2025	Bullish	0.48	0.21R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2025	Bearish	0.08	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 18, 2025	Bearish	0.31	0.29R	Stopped
Feb 14, 2025	Bearish	0.12	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 6, 2025	Bearish	0.19	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 31, 2025	Bullish	0.87	2.72R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 2, 2024	Bearish	0.33	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 30, 2024	Bearish	0.73	1.40R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 7, 2026	Bearish	2.51	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 7, 2026	Bearish	1.19	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 19, 2026	Bearish	1.42	2.78R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 27, 2026	Bearish	1.18	0.44R	Stopped
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	0.57	0.28R	Stopped
Feb 23, 2026	Bullish	0.51	2.73R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 6, 2026	Bullish	1.36	0.67R	Stopped
Jan 27, 2026	Bullish	0.28	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 6, 2025	Bullish	0.47	2.47R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 20, 2025	Bearish	0.07	1.71R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 21, 2025	Bullish	0.74	0.11R	Stopped
Jul 4, 2025	Bullish	0.36	0.58R	Stopped
May 27, 2025	Bullish	0.54	0.50R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2025	Bearish	0.24	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 21, 2025	Bullish	1.03	0.36R	Flat
Dec 2, 2024	Bullish	0.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 18, 2024	Bullish	0.56	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 12, 2024	Bearish	0.26	0.23R	Stopped
Jul 5, 2024	Bearish	0.19	2.11R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 6, 2024	Bearish	0.26	1.27R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 26, 2026	Bearish	1.06	0.48R	Stopped
Jul 8, 2025	Bearish	0.47	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 3, 2024	Bullish	1.06	1.64R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 25, 2024	Bearish	1.13	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 6, 2024	Bullish	0.87	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 23, 2023	Bearish	2.56	2.04R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 19, 2023	Bearish	1.53	1.05R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 11, 2023	Bearish	2.01	2.13R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 30, 2023	Bearish	0.65	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 3, 2023	Bearish	0.45	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 3, 2023	Bullish	0.76	2.22R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 8, 2021	Bullish	3.34	0.80R	Flat
Jun 7, 2021	Bearish	0.53	1.89R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 19, 2020	Bearish	0.91	0.56R	Stopped
Dec 20, 2019	Bearish	0.49	1.82R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 1, 2019	Bullish	0.63	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 22, 2019	Bearish	0.9	1.47R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 7, 2019	Bullish	1.26	0.25R	Stopped
Jun 15, 2018	Bearish	0.37	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 13, 2018	Bearish	0.48	0.92R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (11)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jul 11, 2022	Bullish	8.36	0.00R	Stopped
May 20, 2022	Bearish	2.85	0.61R	Stopped
May 10, 2021	Bearish	1.88	0.95R	Stopped
Nov 27, 2019	Bearish	0.6	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 19, 2017	Bearish	0.6	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 30, 2016	Bullish	2.57	0.37R	Stopped
May 4, 2016	Bearish	2.73	0.37R	Stopped
Nov 19, 2015	Bullish	0.64	1.42R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 7, 2012	Bullish	3.29	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 28, 2009	Bearish	2.14	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 12, 2009	Bearish	1.87	1.20R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.50R	Stopped
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	0.002	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	0.002	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	0.002	0.50R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	0.002	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	0.008	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.003	0.67R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	0.005	0.60R	Stopped
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 16, 2026	Bullish	0.002	1.50R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bullish	0.001	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 14, 2026	Bearish	0.003	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	0.003	2.33R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 9, 2026	Bearish	0.003	2.33R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	0.009	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	0.006	0.17R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.83R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	0.006	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2026	Bullish	0.002	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.009	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.006	2.17R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.003	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 9, 2026	Bearish	0.008	1.25R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	0.007	0.14R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	0.011	0.09R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2026	Bearish	0.009	0.11R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	0.012	0.83R	Stopped
Mar 19, 2026	Bearish	0.009	0.78R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bearish	0.01	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 12, 2026	Bearish	0.011	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 2, 2026	Bearish	0.003	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	0.019	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2026	Bearish	0.007	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 4, 2026	Bearish	0.022	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 3, 2026	Bearish	0.021	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 2, 2026	Bullish	0.021	0.71R	Stopped
Jan 28, 2026	Bullish	0.02	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 26, 2026	Bullish	0.056	2.13R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 16, 2026	Bullish	0.02	0.30R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 16, 2026	Bearish	0.031	0.03R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bullish	0.025	0.36R	Stopped
Mar 23, 2026	Bullish	0.029	1.69R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 18, 2026	Bullish	0.009	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 23, 2026	Bullish	0.189	1.51R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 14, 2025	Bullish	0.023	0.83R	Stopped
Oct 1, 2025	Bearish	0.012	0.08R	Stopped
Sep 29, 2025	Bearish	0.009	1.11R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 25, 2025	Bearish	0.001	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 19, 2025	Bullish	0.008	0.50R	Stopped
Sep 12, 2025	Bullish	0.009	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 13, 2025	Bearish	0.021	0.86R	Flat
Aug 7, 2025	Bearish	0.014	1.79R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 31, 2025	Bearish	0.019	0.89R	Flat
Jul 15, 2025	Bearish	0.008	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 18, 2025	Bearish	0.01	0.40R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2025	Bearish	0.021	1.38R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2025	Bullish	0.005	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 14, 2025	Bearish	0.046	0.30R	Stopped
Mar 7, 2025	Bullish	0.02	0.25R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.038	0.66R	Flat
Apr 9, 2026	Bullish	0.013	0.46R	Stopped
Apr 7, 2026	Bullish	0.013	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 8, 2026	Bearish	0.059	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 29, 2025	Bullish	0.019	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 29, 2025	Bullish	0.014	2.93R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 25, 2025	Bearish	0.016	0.75R	Stopped
Jun 24, 2025	Bullish	0.018	0.11R	Stopped
Jun 18, 2025	Bearish	0.017	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 12, 2025	Bullish	0.026	1.62R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 7, 2025	Bullish	0.025	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 12, 2024	Bearish	0.06	1.43R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 5, 2024	Bearish	0.012	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 25, 2024	Bullish	0.028	2.14R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 30, 2024	Bullish	0.035	1.91R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 26, 2024	Bullish	0.008	2.62R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 14, 2024	Bullish	0.007	0.00R	Stopped
May 31, 2024	Bearish	0.054	0.07R	Stopped
May 17, 2024	Bearish	0.015	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2024	Bearish	0.023	1.74R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Dec 17, 2025	Bearish	0.036	0.61R	Stopped
Nov 13, 2025	Bullish	0.03	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 23, 2025	Bullish	0.015	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 19, 2025	Bullish	0.044	0.09R	Stopped
Aug 4, 2025	Bullish	0.014	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 15, 2025	Bearish	0.057	1.02R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 2, 2025	Bearish	0.149	2.16R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 26, 2024	Bullish	0.1	0.01R	Stopped
Nov 8, 2024	Bullish	0.027	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 11, 2024	Bullish	0.003	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 13, 2024	Bullish	0.025	1.16R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 22, 2023	Bullish	0.014	0.07R	Stopped
Jun 9, 2023	Bullish	0.023	0.70R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2023	Bullish	0.025	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 13, 2023	Bullish	0.05	1.00R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2023	Bearish	0.025	1.20R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 3, 2023	Bullish	0.053	1.58R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 19, 2023	Bullish	0.083	0.23R	Stopped
Sep 1, 2022	Bearish	0.129	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 26, 2022	Bearish	0.053	0.15R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	0.007	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	0.05	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 11, 2025	Bearish	0.144	0.62R	Stopped
Aug 5, 2025	Bullish	0.081	2.12R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 3, 2025	Bullish	0.235	2.44R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 12, 2025	Bearish	0.093	0.15R	Stopped
Sep 9, 2024	Bearish	0.097	0.73R	Stopped
Sep 5, 2024	Bearish	0.081	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 24, 2024	Bullish	0.254	0.24R	Stopped
May 14, 2024	Bearish	0.067	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 29, 2024	Bearish	0.062	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 8, 2024	Bullish	0.021	0.76R	Stopped
Apr 3, 2023	Bullish	0.101	0.80R	Stopped
Sep 5, 2022	Bullish	0.178	0.38R	Stopped
May 17, 2022	Bearish	0.073	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 20, 2021	Bullish	0.089	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 13, 2020	Bullish	0.09	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 7, 2020	Bearish	0.054	1.83R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 26, 2019	Bullish	0.098	0.31R	Stopped
Sep 27, 2019	Bullish	0.014	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Three Drives Completions (14)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 13, 2025	Bearish	0.866	0.81R	Flat
Apr 27, 2023	Bearish	0.131	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 10, 2021	Bearish	0.08	1.79R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 31, 2020	Bullish	0.284	1.24R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 14, 2020	Bullish	0.097	1.80R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 8, 2019	Bullish	0.095	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 16, 2017	Bearish	0.159	2.70R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 26, 2016	Bearish	0.029	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 24, 2015	Bullish	0.119	0.43R	Stopped
Aug 5, 2015	Bullish	0.077	1.96R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 21, 2012	Bullish	0.145	0.23R	Stopped
May 5, 2011	Bearish	0.515	0.27R	Stopped
Dec 12, 2008	Bullish	0.083	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 29, 2008	Bearish	0.724	0.05R	Stopped

Sample backtests (6)

Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.

NQ 15m · Three Drives · 2020-2024

Three Drives · balanced

Win rate: 58.15%
Profit factor: 1.21
Max drawdown: 5.59%

184 trades View →

GC 5m · Three Drives · 2020-2024

Three Drives · balanced

Win rate: 59.10%
Profit factor: 1.21
Max drawdown: 5.15%

511 trades View →

ES 15m · Three Drives · 2020-2024

Three Drives · balanced

Win rate: 55.56%
Profit factor: 1.31
Max drawdown: 3.27%

153 trades View →

GC 15m · Three Drives · 2020-2024

Three Drives · balanced

Win rate: 57.53%
Profit factor: 1.18
Max drawdown: 6.10%

186 trades View →

ES 5m · Three Drives · 2020-2024

Three Drives · balanced

Win rate: 53.82%
Profit factor: 0.97
Max drawdown: 7.90%

498 trades View →

NQ 5m · Three Drives · 2020-2024

Three Drives · balanced

Win rate: 53.38%
Profit factor: 0.92
Max drawdown: 17.03%

695 trades View →

Backtest this pattern

Run it on your contracts, timeframes, and dates.

Run backtest →