Pattern Detail

Shark

Q: Do harmonic patterns like the Shark actually work?

Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed Shark by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.

Q: What is the Shark pattern, and how is it defined here?

The Shark is a five-point structure labeled O, X, A, B, C, built from a retracement followed by two extensions. The X-to-A leg retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of OX, A-to-B extends 1.13 to 1.618 of XA, and B-to-C extends 1.618 to 2.24 of AB, driving price into the C reaction point. All three ratios hold at once within a 5% tolerance, pivots use 3 bars on each side, and they are confirmed before they count.

Q: What is the Shark pattern success rate?

There is no single reliable figure, and the round numbers repeated online rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or period. A structure made of extensions is by definition a strong trend, so fading the C point means betting against momentum that is still building. Rather than quote folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape, across five markets and seven timeframes.

A five-point structure of two strong extensions into a reaction point where the move is expected to stall.

XA = 0.382-0.886 of OX
AB = 1.13-1.618 of XA
BC = 1.618-2.24 of AB

Idealized bullish Shark. It completes at a low and projects a move up.

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its lowest low over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random long entry (+1.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.05×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.12R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.4% of the time vs 44.4% for a random long entry. The 1.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,730 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.4%	44.4%	+1.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.8%	22.6%	+0.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.1%	12.5%	-0.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.9%	45.9%	-2.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.7%	9.7%	+1.0

1,730 occurrences · 136,704 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Everything here is in R, the setup's own risk. 1R is the distance from the entry (the pattern's closing price) to where it would be proven wrong — its highest high over the 4 bars that form it. So "offered 2R" means price ran twice that distance in your favor at some point before the stop. It does not assume you took profit there: a target is a strategy choice.

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (+1.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.01×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.5% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry. The 1.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,796 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.5%	44.6%	+1.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.9%	24.2%	+0.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.6%	14.1%	-0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.0%	47.6%	-0.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	7.4%	7.8%	-0.4

1,796 occurrences · 136,054 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (+0.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.19×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.10R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.5% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 0.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 362 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.5%	44.1%	+0.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.7%	22.7%	-0.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.3%	13.1%	-1.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.3%	43.4%	+1.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.2%	12.5%	-2.3

362 occurrences · 30,293 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random short entry (-3.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.10R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.2% of the time vs 44.3% for a random short entry. The 3.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 352 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.2%	44.3%	-3.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.6%	24.8%	-3.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.5%	15.2%	-0.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	49.1%	47.0%	+2.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	9.7%	8.8%	+0.9

352 occurrences · 29,992 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

Limited sample (96). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

36.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random long entry (-7.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.98×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.94R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 36.5% of the time vs 44.1% for a random long entry. The 7.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 96 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	36.5%	44.1%	-7.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	14.6%	24.7%	-10.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.4%	15.7%	-6.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.8%	42.7%	+1.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	19.8%	13.2%	+6.6

96 occurrences · 10,656 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

48.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.0% for a random short entry (+5.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.92×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.28R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 48.4% of the time vs 43.0% for a random short entry. The 5.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 126 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	48.4%	43.0%	+5.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.6%	25.9%	+2.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.5%	17.0%	+0.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	37.3%	47.1%	-9.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.3%	9.9%	+4.4

126 occurrences · 10,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

Limited sample (60). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

51.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (+7.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.96×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.25R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 51.7% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 7.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±12.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 60 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	51.7%	44.5%	+7.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.0%	24.1%	-4.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.3%	14.6%	-1.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.3%	43.5%	-0.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	5.0%	12.0%	-7.0

60 occurrences · 5,466 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

Limited sample (69). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random short entry (+0.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.94×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.31R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.9% of the time vs 44.0% for a random short entry. The 0.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±11.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 69 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.9%	44.0%	+0.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	30.4%	26.3%	+4.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.8%	17.3%	+1.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.4%	47.6%	-1.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.7%	8.4%	+0.3

69 occurrences · 5,325 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 48.1% for a random long entry (+1.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.16×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.34R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.24R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 48.1% for a random long entry. The 1.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±18.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 28 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 28 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	48.1%	+1.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	35.7%	27.8%	+7.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	25.0%	15.9%	+9.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.4%	42.8%	+3.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	3.6%	9.1%	-5.6

28 occurrences · 2,616 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

Limited sample (42). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

59.5%

Reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (+15.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.90×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.60R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room 59.5% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry — a 15.7-point gap, wider than the ±15.0-point margin of error from chance, and it holds across the sample. A real, if modest, tendency to offer more room than the market alone.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	59.5%	43.8%	+15.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	42.9%	26.7%	+16.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	21.4%	17.2%	+4.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	38.1%	50.6%	-12.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	2.4%	5.6%	-3.2

42 occurrences · 2,611 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

85.7%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 51.5% for a random long entry (+34.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.88×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.36R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.25R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 85.7% of the time vs 51.5% for a random long entry. The 34.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±37.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 7 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	85.7%	51.5%	+34.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	14.3%	27.9%	-13.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	13.2%	-13.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	14.3%	38.1%	-23.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.4%	-10.4

7 occurrences · 423 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.1% for a random short entry (-6.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.63×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 40.1% for a random short entry. The 6.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±55.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 3 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	40.1%	-6.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	33.3%	24.9%	+8.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	33.3%	16.2%	+17.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	56.6%	+10.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

3 occurrences · 401 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

54.5%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 49.2% for a random long entry (+5.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.24R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 54.5% of the time vs 49.2% for a random long entry. The 5.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±29.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 11 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 11 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	54.5%	49.2%	+5.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.2%	23.9%	-5.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.1%	11.8%	-2.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	27.3%	39.4%	-12.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	18.2%	11.4%	+6.8

11 occurrences · 439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.9% for a random short entry (+9.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.72×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.59R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 40.9% for a random short entry. The 9.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±68.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Only 2 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	40.9%	+9.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	50.0%	23.6%	+26.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	14.4%	-14.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	55.8%	-5.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

2 occurrences · 403 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (-2.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.19×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.04R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.9% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 2.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,085 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.9%	44.3%	-2.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.5%	21.6%	-0.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.3%	11.6%	-0.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.7%	45.7%	+2.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.3%	10.0%	+0.3

1,085 occurrences · 100,574 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.4% for a random short entry (-0.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.14×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.9% of the time vs 44.4% for a random short entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,076 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.9%	44.4%	-0.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.7%	23.0%	-0.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.7%	13.0%	+0.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.6%	47.3%	+0.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.6%	8.2%	+0.3

1,076 occurrences · 99,273 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (+5.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.22×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 5.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 284 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	44.3%	+5.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.1%	22.4%	-1.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.6%	12.5%	-1.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	38.7%	43.3%	-4.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.3%	12.4%	-1.2

284 occurrences · 26,201 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

36.0%

Backwards

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.2% for a random short entry (-8.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.14×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.01R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 36.0% of the time vs 44.2% for a random short entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	36.0%	44.2%	-8.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	19.4%	23.9%	-4.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.0%	14.4%	-0.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	52.9%	46.8%	+6.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.2%	9.0%	+2.1

278 occurrences · 25,439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

Limited sample (99). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

47.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random long entry (+3.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.13×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.19R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 47.5% of the time vs 44.5% for a random long entry. The 3.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 99 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	47.5%	44.5%	+3.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.3%	24.7%	+0.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.2%	15.0%	+2.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	30.3%	42.4%	-12.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	22.2%	13.1%	+9.1

99 occurrences · 9,935 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+7.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.10×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.24R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.4% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 7.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 119 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.4%	43.3%	+7.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.2%	25.5%	-0.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.5%	16.4%	+2.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.9%	46.3%	-3.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	6.7%	10.4%	-3.7

119 occurrences · 9,497 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

Limited sample (49). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

49.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.3% for a random long entry (+4.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.12R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 49.0% of the time vs 44.3% for a random long entry. The 4.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±13.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 49 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	49.0%	44.3%	+4.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	18.4%	23.3%	-4.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.2%	14.2%	-2.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.8%	43.7%	-2.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	10.2%	12.0%	-1.8

49 occurrences · 5,306 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

Limited sample (66). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

30.3%

Backwards

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (-14.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.87×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.88R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 30.3% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	30.3%	45.2%	-14.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	15.2%	26.5%	-11.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	6.1%	16.9%	-10.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	57.6%	46.6%	+11.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.1%	8.2%	+3.9

66 occurrences · 5,060 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.8%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (-0.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.37×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.16R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.8% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 0.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±20.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 24 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 24 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.8%	46.6%	-0.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.0%	26.0%	-1.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.7%	15.2%	+1.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	44.2%	+5.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	4.2%	9.1%	-5.0

24 occurrences · 2,573 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

Limited sample (32). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 45.2% for a random short entry (-4.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.84×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.05R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.21R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.6% of the time vs 45.2% for a random short entry. The 4.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±17.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 32 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.6%	45.2%	-4.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.1%	28.0%	+0.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.4%	19.0%	-9.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	53.1%	49.7%	+3.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	6.3%	5.1%	+1.2

32 occurrences · 2,539 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

20.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (-24.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.18×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.62R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 20.0% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 24.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±43.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 5 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	20.0%	44.6%	-24.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	18.9%	-18.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	8.5%	-8.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	80.0%	41.5%	+38.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	13.9%	-13.9

5 occurrences · 424 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

28.6%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 41.2% for a random short entry (-12.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.83×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.68R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 28.6% of the time vs 41.2% for a random short entry. The 12.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	28.6%	41.2%	-12.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	14.3%	23.8%	-9.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.4%	-16.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	71.4%	55.6%	+15.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	3.2%	-3.2

7 occurrences · 408 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

62.5%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.2% for a random long entry (+15.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.60R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 62.5% of the time vs 47.2% for a random long entry. The 15.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±34.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 8 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 8 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	62.5%	47.2%	+15.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	37.5%	21.2%	+16.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	25.0%	9.6%	+15.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	25.0%	39.2%	-14.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.5%	13.7%	-1.2

8 occurrences · 439 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random short entry (-2.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.96×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.0% of the time vs 42.6% for a random short entry. The 2.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±43.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 5 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.0%	42.6%	-2.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.0%	25.7%	-5.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	16.6%	-16.6
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.0%	53.9%	-13.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	20.0%	3.5%	+16.5

5 occurrences · 397 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.9% for a random long entry (-0.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.11×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.08R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.5% of the time vs 42.9% for a random long entry. The 0.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3,986 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.5%	42.9%	-0.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.1%	22.4%	-1.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	11.7%	12.8%	-1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.5%	46.3%	-1.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.0%	10.9%	+2.1

3,986 occurrences · 393,642 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (-1.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.5% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 1.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3,965 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.5%	43.6%	-1.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.4%	23.3%	-1.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.2%	13.5%	-1.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.0%	46.4%	-0.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.5%	10.0%	+1.4

3,965 occurrences · 391,020 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+0.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.11×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.4% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 0.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,206 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.4%	43.3%	+0.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.6%	22.8%	-2.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.4%	13.0%	-2.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.2%	45.4%	-2.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.3%	11.3%	+2.0

1,206 occurrences · 98,903 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.1% for a random short entry (-0.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.8% of the time vs 44.1% for a random short entry. The 0.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,095 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.8%	44.1%	-0.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.3%	23.8%	-0.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.2%	14.0%	-0.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.1%	45.9%	-2.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.1%	10.0%	+3.1

1,095 occurrences · 97,699 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+0.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.08×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.12R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.8% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 0.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 463 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.8%	43.3%	+0.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.7%	23.2%	-2.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.1%	13.8%	-1.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	41.0%	44.7%	-3.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	15.1%	11.9%	+3.2

463 occurrences · 36,235 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random short entry (+1.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.11×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.20R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.9% of the time vs 43.9% for a random short entry. The 1.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 434 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.9%	43.9%	+1.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	29.0%	24.3%	+4.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	17.1%	14.8%	+2.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.5%	45.4%	-1.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.5%	10.7%	+0.8

434 occurrences · 35,963 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

38.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.6% for a random long entry (-4.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.93×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.00R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 38.5% of the time vs 42.6% for a random long entry. The 4.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 244 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	38.5%	42.6%	-4.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	7.0%	14.0%	-7.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.2%	44.1%	-4.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	21.3%	13.2%	+8.1

244 occurrences · 18,830 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.0%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (-2.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.93×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.05R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.0% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 2.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 212 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.0%	43.6%	-2.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.7%	24.3%	-2.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.8%	15.2%	-4.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.0%	45.1%	-3.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	17.0%	11.3%	+5.7

212 occurrences · 18,516 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.1%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random long entry (-3.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.95×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.01R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.16R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.1% of the time vs 44.6% for a random long entry. The 3.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±8.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 124 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.1%	44.6%	-3.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	16.9%	24.5%	-7.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	8.9%	14.8%	-5.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.5%	44.9%	-1.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	15.3%	10.5%	+4.9

124 occurrences · 9,536 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.5% for a random short entry (+2.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.91×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.18R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.7% of the time vs 44.5% for a random short entry. The 2.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 105 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.7%	44.5%	+2.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.8%	25.7%	-1.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.2%	15.7%	+0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.0%	46.5%	-6.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.3%	9.0%	+4.3

105 occurrences · 9,392 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.4%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.6% for a random long entry (-0.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.15×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.4% of the time vs 46.6% for a random long entry. The 0.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±18.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 28 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.4%	46.6%	-0.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.4%	26.1%	-4.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.7%	16.1%	-5.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	46.4%	44.5%	+1.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	7.1%	8.9%	-1.8

28 occurrences · 2,338 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

Limited sample (32). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.5% for a random short entry (-5.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.93×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.18R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.20R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.6% of the time vs 46.5% for a random short entry. The 5.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±17.3-point margin of error you would get by chance from 32 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.6%	46.5%	-5.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	25.0%	26.5%	-1.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	15.6%	15.8%	-0.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	56.3%	46.9%	+9.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	3.1%	6.5%	-3.4

32 occurrences · 2,207 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

50.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 49.4% for a random long entry (+0.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.34×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.62R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.24R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 50.0% of the time vs 49.4% for a random long entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±40.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 6 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Only 6 occurrences. The breakdown below is shown in full, but a sample this small is anecdotal, a hint, not a measured edge. That is usually a limit of available history, not a flaw in the pattern. For a firmer read, try a lower timeframe or a more active instrument.

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	50.0%	49.4%	+0.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	50.0%	27.1%	+22.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	33.3%	16.5%	+16.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	50.0%	41.2%	+8.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	9.4%	-9.4

6 occurrences · 425 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

57.1%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 39.4% for a random short entry (+17.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.53R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 57.1% of the time vs 39.4% for a random short entry. The 17.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±36.2-point margin of error you would get by chance from 7 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	57.1%	39.4%	+17.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	42.9%	21.9%	+20.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	28.6%	12.7%	+15.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	28.6%	50.7%	-22.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.3%	9.9%	+4.4

7 occurrences · 424 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random long entry (+1.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.19×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.10R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.5% of the time vs 43.3% for a random long entry. The 1.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3,844 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.5%	43.3%	+1.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.2%	22.9%	+0.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.1%	13.2%	-1.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.5%	46.4%	-2.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.0%	10.2%	+1.7

3,844 occurrences · 371,185 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random short entry (-0.4 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.17×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.09R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.2% of the time vs 43.5% for a random short entry. The 0.4-point gap is no bigger than the ±1.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3,874 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.2%	43.5%	-0.4
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.3%	23.3%	-1.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.1%	13.5%	-0.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	45.1%	46.5%	-1.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.7%	9.9%	+1.8

3,874 occurrences · 369,441 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.9% for a random long entry (+0.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.20×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.13R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.8% of the time vs 43.9% for a random long entry. The 0.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.9-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,120 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.8%	43.9%	+0.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.9%	23.5%	-1.6
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	12.9%	13.6%	-0.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.7%	45.1%	-2.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.5%	11.0%	+1.5

1,120 occurrences · 92,926 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

44.3%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (+0.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.14R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 44.3% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 1,063 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	44.3%	43.7%	+0.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.2%	23.8%	+0.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.9%	14.0%	+0.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.3%	45.8%	-2.5
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.4%	10.5%	+1.9

1,063 occurrences · 92,675 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (+0.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.23×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.09R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.8% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry. The 0.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 432 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.8%	43.4%	+0.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.1%	23.4%	-2.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.6%	13.8%	-3.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.2%	44.4%	-0.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.0%	12.2%	-0.1

432 occurrences · 34,385 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

47.2%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random short entry (+3.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.14×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.15R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 47.2% of the time vs 43.8% for a random short entry. The 3.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±4.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 405 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	47.2%	43.8%	+3.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	24.2%	24.3%	-0.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.3%	14.4%	-1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.0%	45.2%	-1.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.9%	11.0%	-2.1

405 occurrences · 33,999 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

41.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random long entry (-1.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.07R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 41.4% of the time vs 43.1% for a random long entry. The 1.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 210 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	41.4%	43.1%	-1.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.5%	23.2%	-2.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	10.0%	14.1%	-4.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.3%	43.3%	+1.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.3%	13.7%	+0.6

210 occurrences · 17,693 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

35.6%

Backwards

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-7.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.92R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 35.6% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	35.6%	43.3%	-7.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	15.7%	24.4%	-8.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.9%	15.3%	-5.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	48.2%	44.4%	+3.8
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.2%	12.3%	+3.9

191 occurrences · 17,912 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.5% for a random long entry (-3.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.92×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.06R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.4% of the time vs 43.5% for a random long entry. The 3.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.1-point margin of error you would get by chance from 114 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.4%	43.5%	-3.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.9%	23.4%	-1.5
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	9.6%	14.1%	-4.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.0%	45.5%	-2.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.7%	11.0%	+5.7

114 occurrences · 9,070 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.9% for a random short entry (-4.1 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.92×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.18R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.8% of the time vs 44.9% for a random short entry. The 4.1-point gap is no bigger than the ±9.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 103 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.8%	44.9%	-4.1
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	20.4%	25.5%	-5.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.6%	15.8%	-2.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	42.7%	45.6%	-2.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.5%	9.5%	+7.0

103 occurrences · 9,047 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

Limited sample (37). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

40.5%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.8% for a random long entry (-3.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.01×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.11R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 40.5% of the time vs 43.8% for a random long entry. The 3.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±16.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 37 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	40.5%	43.8%	-3.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.6%	23.4%	-1.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.2%	11.5%	+4.7
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	51.4%	48.7%	+2.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.1%	7.5%	+0.6

37 occurrences · 2,394 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

Limited sample (31). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

25.8%

Backwards

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.6% for a random short entry (-18.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.84×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.96R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.17R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 25.8% of the time vs 44.6% for a random short entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	25.8%	44.6%	-18.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	16.1%	25.5%	-9.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.1%	15.0%	+1.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	67.7%	48.6%	+19.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	6.5%	6.8%	-0.4

31 occurrences · 2,319 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 47.1% for a random long entry (-13.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.79×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.66R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 47.1% for a random long entry. The 13.7-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	47.1%	-13.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	23.8%	-23.8
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	14.9%	-14.9
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	43.0%	+23.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.0%	-10.0

3 occurrences · 442 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

0.0%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 40.8% for a random short entry (-40.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.68×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.47R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 0.0% of the time vs 40.8% for a random short entry. The 40.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±55.6-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	0.0%	40.8%	-40.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	20.4%	-20.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	13.1%	-13.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	49.5%	+17.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	33.3%	9.7%	+23.6

3 occurrences · 412 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.5% for a random long entry (+0.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.21×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.08R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.4% of the time vs 42.5% for a random long entry. The 0.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2,417 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.4%	42.5%	+0.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.3%	23.0%	+0.3
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.2%	13.6%	-0.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.8%	46.8%	-2.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	11.8%	10.7%	+1.1

2,417 occurrences · 276,772 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

42.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random short entry (+0.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.20×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.06R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.06R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 42.9% of the time vs 42.4% for a random short entry. The 0.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±2.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 2,371 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	42.9%	42.4%	+0.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.4%	23.1%	-0.7
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.2%	13.7%	-0.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.2%	47.0%	-2.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.8%	10.7%	+2.1

2,371 occurrences · 276,314 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

39.7%

Backwards

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.4% for a random long entry (-3.7 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.15×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.05R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 39.7% of the time vs 43.4% for a random long entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	39.7%	43.4%	-3.7
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	21.6%	23.4%	-1.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.5%	13.9%	-0.4
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	47.2%	45.5%	+1.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	13.1%	11.1%	+2.0

733 occurrences · 69,030 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.7%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.6% for a random short entry (+0.2 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.15×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.12R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.11R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.7% of the time vs 43.6% for a random short entry. The 0.2-point gap is no bigger than the ±3.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 691 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.7%	43.6%	+0.2
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.7%	23.6%	+0.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	13.9%	14.0%	-0.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	43.6%	45.2%	-1.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	12.7%	11.3%	+1.5

691 occurrences · 68,562 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.6%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.8% for a random long entry (+0.9 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.21×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.11R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.6% of the time vs 42.8% for a random long entry. The 0.9-point gap is no bigger than the ±5.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 282 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.6%	42.8%	+0.9
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	22.7%	23.8%	-1.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.5%	14.6%	-0.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	41.5%	45.4%	-3.9
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.9%	11.9%	+3.0

282 occurrences · 25,869 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

43.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.7% for a random short entry (-0.3 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.19×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.15R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.13R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 43.4% of the time vs 43.7% for a random short entry. The 0.3-point gap is no bigger than the ±6.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 265 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	43.4%	43.7%	-0.3
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.8%	23.7%	+0.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	14.2%	+0.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	40.4%	44.5%	-4.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	16.2%	11.8%	+4.4

265 occurrences · 25,622 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

49.4%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 42.4% for a random long entry (+7.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.14×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.24R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.12R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 49.4% of the time vs 42.4% for a random long entry. The 7.0-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.7-point margin of error you would get by chance from 158 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	49.4%	42.4%	+7.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	28.5%	24.0%	+4.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	18.4%	15.2%	+3.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	36.1%	45.4%	-9.3
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	14.6%	12.3%	+2.3

158 occurrences · 13,514 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

45.8%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+2.5 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.92×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.20R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 45.8% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 2.5-point gap is no bigger than the ±7.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 155 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	45.8%	43.3%	+2.5
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	23.2%	24.2%	-0.9
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	16.1%	15.2%	+1.0
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	38.7%	44.1%	-5.4
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	15.5%	12.6%	+2.9

155 occurrences · 13,523 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

Limited sample (83). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

56.6%

Reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 44.0% for a random long entry (+12.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.09×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.42R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.14R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room 56.6% of the time vs 44.0% for a random long entry — a 12.6-point gap, wider than the ±10.7-point margin of error from chance, and it holds across the sample. A real, if modest, tendency to offer more room than the market alone.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	56.6%	44.0%	+12.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	32.5%	24.4%	+8.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	20.5%	15.0%	+5.5
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.8%	46.4%	-6.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	3.6%	9.6%	-5.9

83 occurrences · 6,841 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

Limited sample (81). Directional at best.

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

46.9%

Not reliable

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (+3.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

0.87×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a quieter stretch.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.22R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.15R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 46.9% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 3.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±10.8-point margin of error you would get by chance from 81 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	46.9%	43.3%	+3.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	27.2%	25.0%	+2.1
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	21.0%	14.7%	+6.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	44.4%	46.5%	-2.1
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	8.6%	10.1%	-1.5

81 occurrences · 6,967 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

60.7%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 46.1% for a random long entry (+14.6 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.02×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

1.51R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.19R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 60.7% of the time vs 46.1% for a random long entry. The 14.6-point gap is no bigger than the ±18.5-point margin of error you would get by chance from 28 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	60.7%	46.1%	+14.6
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	39.3%	27.3%	+12.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	28.6%	15.5%	+13.1
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	39.3%	47.0%	-7.7
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	6.9%	-6.9

28 occurrences · 1,688 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

28.6%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.3% for a random short entry (-14.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.07×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. About normal.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.90R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.10R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 28.6% of the time vs 43.3% for a random short entry. The 14.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±18.4-point margin of error you would get by chance from 28 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	28.6%	43.3%	-14.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	17.9%	22.3%	-4.4
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	7.1%	12.5%	-5.3
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	53.6%	48.0%	+5.6
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	17.9%	8.7%	+9.1

28 occurrences · 1,722 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bullish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

14.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 53.3% for a random long entry (-39.0 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.55×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.53R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.32R for a random long entry.

Summary

Offered at least 1R of room only 14.3% of the time vs 53.3% for a random long entry — it offers LESS room than chance here. On this market and timeframe the structure works against you.

Room offered, this setup vs a random long entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	14.3%	53.3%	-39.0
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	14.3%	29.5%	-15.2
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	14.3%	16.5%	-2.2
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	85.7%	39.8%	+46.0
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	7.0%	-7.0

7 occurrences · 400 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

Bearish Shark

How to read this

Room offered (≥ 1R)

33.3%

Too few to trust

Offered at least 1× its risk before the stop, vs 43.1% for a random short entry (-9.8 pts).

Move size vs normal

1.24×

Realized range over the next 20 bars vs a random bar. Precedes a bigger move.

Typical room (20-bar)

0.59R

Average run in favor (capped at 3R), vs 1.07R for a random short entry.

Summary

Offered ≥1R 33.3% of the time vs 43.1% for a random short entry. The 9.8-point gap is no bigger than the ±56.0-point margin of error you would get by chance from 3 occurrences. Not a reliable edge.

Room offered, this setup vs a random short entry

Outcome	This setup	Random entry	Edge
Offered ≥ 1R Ran at least 1× its risk in favor before the stop	33.3%	43.1%	-9.8
Offered ≥ 2R Ran at least 2× its risk	0.0%	19.0%	-19.0
Offered ≥ 3R Ran the full 3× cap	0.0%	11.8%	-11.8
Stopped < 1R Hit the invalidation stop before offering 1R	66.7%	46.5%	+20.2
Went sideways Neither stopped nor offered 1R within 20 bars	0.0%	10.4%	-10.4

3 occurrences · 415 random-entry controls · 20-bar horizon

The Shark, defined by Scott Carney, is a five-point structure labeled O, X, A, B, C rather than the usual XABCD. It is built from extensions instead of retracements, and its signature is the completion: two strong extensions drive price into the C reaction point, where the move is expected to stall and turn back.

How to spot it

An opening O-to-X move, then X-to-A retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of OX.
A-to-B extends 1.13 to 1.618 of XA, the first strong push.
B-to-C extends 1.618 to 2.24 of AB, the second push, driving price into the reaction point. All three ratios hold at once.
The structure completes at C, a swing low in an uptrend (a buy) or a swing high in a downtrend (a sell).

The chart above marks the O, X, A, B, C points on a real occurrence, with the ratio of each leg.

Why it matters

The Shark catches a market that is extending hard in one direction and is due for a reaction. C is the reaction point, where the second extension is expected to stall. Because the structure is built from two extensions, C pushes well beyond the prior swings rather than sitting inside them, so the completion is an extension of the move, not a retracement of it. The implied entry fades that overstretched push, betting it has run out of room at C.

That makes the Shark a momentum-fading structure. Fading the C point means betting against a trend that is still building, so a Shark that does not react simply continues. It works when the two extensions overshoot into a level and reverse, giving a clean reaction off C. Because the definition is loose, the shape appears often, which makes it useful for seeing how a high-frequency, momentum-fading setup behaves over a long sample.

The honest question is not whether the shape can be drawn on a chart, it always can after the fact, but whether a completion actually leads anywhere. That is what the data below measures.

Does it actually work?

A pattern is a setup, not a trade, so the question is not “did it win” but “how much room did the move offer before the structure was proven wrong.” The tabs below answer that across five futures markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, natural gas) and seven timeframes from one minute to one day.

For each completion we measure the room price offered in units of the pattern’s own risk, then set it against what a random swing pivot of the same kind would have done. A Shark that turns up from a swing low is judged against ordinary swing lows; one that turns down from a swing high, against ordinary swing highs. When the completion offers more room more often than those random swings, that shows up as a real edge. When it does not, the page says so plainly.

Harmonic structures are rare, so read the sample size in view. On the slower timeframes a Shark completes only single digits of times, or not at all, while the faster timeframes give a larger sample. Thin samples are flagged for you.

How we measured it

Entry is the close of the bar that confirms the C point, the earliest a trader could act without hindsight.
One unit of risk, 1R, is the distance from that close to C itself, the swing extreme the structure completes at. A move back through C says the pattern has failed.
We follow the next 20 bars and record how far price ran in your favor, in multiples of that risk, before C gave way.
The comparison is a random swing pivot of the same side, which already sits at a turning point with a tight stop. That keeps it apples-to-apples: the question is whether a Shark swing runs further than an ordinary swing of the same shape, not whether a tight stop flatters the numbers.

What this page does not cover

A profit target. Harmonic tradition puts one at a Fibonacci retracement, but where you take profit is a strategy choice, so this measures only the room the structure tends to offer.
A trend filter, or confluence with support, resistance, or a higher-timeframe level, which traders normally use to weight a completion.
A guarantee. A valid shape on the chart is a setup, not a certainty. What it tends to do next is exactly what the numbers above describe.

FAQ

Do harmonic patterns like the Shark actually work?

Harmonic patterns are described everywhere but rarely tested honestly. This page scores every completed Shark by the room it offered in units of its own risk, measured against random swing pivots of the same kind, and counts a pattern only on the bar its final pivot confirms, so nothing is read in hindsight. The result is a like-for-like comparison rather than the round-number success rates usually quoted for harmonics.

What is the Shark pattern, and how is it defined here?

The Shark is a five-point structure labeled O, X, A, B, C, built from a retracement followed by two extensions. The X-to-A leg retraces 0.382 to 0.886 of OX, A-to-B extends 1.13 to 1.618 of XA, and B-to-C extends 1.618 to 2.24 of AB, driving price into the C reaction point. All three ratios hold at once within a 5% tolerance, pivots use 3 bars on each side, and they are confirmed before they count.

What is the Shark pattern success rate?

There is no single reliable figure, and the round numbers repeated online rarely specify instrument, timeframe, or period. A structure made of extensions is by definition a strong trend, so fading the C point means betting against momentum that is still building. Rather than quote folklore, this page measures how far a completion runs in units of its own risk and whether that beats an ordinary swing of the same shape, across five markets and seven timeframes.

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	6.75	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	17.75	0.85R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	7.75	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.75	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	23.25	2.72R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bearish	8.5	2.82R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2026	Bearish	32	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 14, 2026	Bullish	18	1.96R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	3.5	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 13, 2026	Bullish	4.5	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2026	Bullish	40.75	0.82R	Flat
Apr 7, 2026	Bearish	14.5	2.53R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	12.5	0.40R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	23	0.66R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	14	0.04R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bearish	20.5	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bearish	10	1.85R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	19	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 18, 2026	Bearish	11	0.57R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	11.25	0.51R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	42.25	0.86R	Flat
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	47	0.28R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	20	2.60R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	90.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	17.25	0.13R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	29.75	0.08R	Stopped
Apr 10, 2026	Bullish	48.5	0.17R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2026	Bearish	30.25	1.41R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 20, 2026	Bullish	28	0.57R	Stopped
Mar 3, 2026	Bearish	32.25	2.81R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 17, 2026	Bearish	23	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 2, 2026	Bearish	7.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 20, 2026	Bullish	64	2.04R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 2, 2026	Bearish	57.5	0.65R	Stopped
Dec 2, 2025	Bullish	81.25	1.56R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 18, 2025	Bearish	64	0.23R	Stopped
Nov 12, 2025	Bearish	22.25	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 11, 2025	Bearish	42.75	0.01R	Stopped
Oct 28, 2025	Bearish	23.5	0.87R	Stopped
Oct 8, 2025	Bearish	25.5	0.68R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	11.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2026	Bearish	28.75	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 6, 2026	Bearish	39.5	0.80R	Stopped
Feb 2, 2026	Bearish	56.75	0.34R	Stopped
Oct 10, 2025	Bearish	47.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 29, 2025	Bullish	41.75	0.84R	Stopped
Aug 1, 2025	Bullish	95.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 28, 2025	Bearish	36	1.56R	Ran ≥1R
May 15, 2025	Bearish	109	1.07R	Ran ≥1R
May 2, 2025	Bearish	55.25	0.22R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2025	Bearish	40	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2025	Bearish	43.5	0.32R	Stopped
Mar 7, 2025	Bullish	236	1.21R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 20, 2025	Bullish	37.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2025	Bearish	45.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 28, 2025	Bearish	32.25	1.92R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 5, 2024	Bearish	33.75	0.89R	Stopped
Oct 18, 2024	Bearish	65.5	0.03R	Stopped
Oct 4, 2024	Bearish	200	0.10R	Flat
Aug 29, 2024	Bearish	71.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 20, 2026	Bearish	105.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 5, 2025	Bearish	137.75	1.20R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 21, 2025	Bullish	431.25	1.47R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 10, 2025	Bearish	58.25	2.70R	Ran ≥1R
May 15, 2025	Bearish	137.25	1.39R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 24, 2025	Bearish	38.25	0.90R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2025	Bearish	171.25	0.31R	Stopped
Feb 20, 2025	Bullish	80.25	1.95R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2025	Bearish	68.75	1.81R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 3, 2025	Bullish	269.25	1.16R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 6, 2025	Bearish	102.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 30, 2024	Bearish	57	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 23, 2024	Bullish	139.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 29, 2024	Bearish	28.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 23, 2024	Bullish	178	0.55R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2024	Bullish	123.5	0.66R	Stopped
Feb 5, 2024	Bearish	71.25	2.11R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 5, 2023	Bullish	104.5	0.83R	Stopped
Jul 26, 2023	Bearish	109.75	1.02R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 5, 2023	Bearish	61.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Nov 21, 2025	Bullish	653	1.22R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 13, 2025	Bullish	396.75	0.14R	Stopped
Jul 15, 2025	Bearish	103.5	2.74R	Ran ≥1R
May 9, 2025	Bearish	203.5	0.37R	Stopped
Dec 12, 2024	Bearish	103	0.66R	Stopped
Dec 2, 2024	Bearish	23.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 1, 2024	Bullish	211.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 23, 2024	Bullish	85.75	1.66R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 29, 2023	Bearish	122	2.99R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 12, 2023	Bullish	44	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2023	Bullish	195.25	0.22R	Stopped
Jan 9, 2023	Bearish	85.25	2.11R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 4, 2022	Bearish	89.75	2.44R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 22, 2022	Bullish	30	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 12, 2022	Bearish	23.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 15, 2022	Bullish	418.75	0.29R	Stopped
Dec 9, 2021	Bearish	147	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 5, 2021	Bearish	11.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 8, 2021	Bearish	28.5	2.39R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 15, 2019	Bearish	11.75	2.68R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (7)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Oct 2, 2023	Bullish	296.5	1.87R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 28, 2023	Bearish	346	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 5, 2018	Bullish	144.25	2.61R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 9, 2018	Bullish	259.25	1.02R	Ran ≥1R
May 11, 2016	Bullish	100.5	1.55R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 12, 2012	Bearish	41	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 7, 2009	Bearish	5.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (9)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Oct 2, 2023	Bullish	402	1.20R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 27, 2023	Bearish	282	0.59R	Stopped
Mar 10, 2021	Bullish	545	1.84R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 5, 2018	Bullish	279	0.94R	Flat
May 11, 2016	Bullish	81	2.22R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 11, 2016	Bullish	72.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 17, 2015	Bullish	120.25	0.88R	Stopped
Aug 7, 2009	Bearish	13	2.60R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 17, 2008	Bullish	72.5	0.26R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 28, 2026	Bullish	2	0.63R	Stopped
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	2.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	5	1.25R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	4	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	1	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 17, 2026	Bearish	5.25	0.38R	Stopped
Apr 17, 2026	Bearish	1.5	1.50R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2026	Bullish	3.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2026	Bearish	2	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2026	Bearish	2.25	2.89R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 6, 2026	Bearish	3.75	1.33R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	6.25	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2026	Bullish	5	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 25, 2026	Bullish	2	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	4	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	8.25	1.42R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 20, 2026	Bearish	6	1.75R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 19, 2026	Bullish	17.25	0.78R	Flat
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	2.75	2.64R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2026	Bearish	1.5	1.33R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	15.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 9, 2026	Bullish	6	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2026	Bearish	7	0.82R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bearish	9.5	0.37R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2026	Bearish	28	0.03R	Stopped
Feb 20, 2026	Bearish	5.25	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 17, 2026	Bearish	5.25	0.76R	Stopped
Feb 17, 2026	Bearish	8.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 20, 2026	Bearish	9.75	2.54R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 12, 2026	Bearish	2.75	1.82R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 22, 2025	Bearish	4.75	0.32R	Stopped
Dec 10, 2025	Bearish	3.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 9, 2025	Bearish	1.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 2, 2025	Bearish	14	0.07R	Stopped
Dec 1, 2025	Bullish	4.25	1.94R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 27, 2025	Bullish	3	0.25R	Stopped
Nov 14, 2025	Bullish	14.75	1.46R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 13, 2025	Bullish	11.75	0.83R	Stopped
Nov 12, 2025	Bearish	5.75	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 3, 2025	Bullish	16.25	1.48R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	9	1.19R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 13, 2026	Bearish	51	1.17R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 27, 2026	Bullish	28.75	0.63R	Flat
Feb 24, 2026	Bearish	4.25	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 8, 2026	Bullish	23	0.41R	Flat
Dec 10, 2025	Bullish	16.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 10, 2025	Bearish	14.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 8, 2025	Bearish	3.25	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 1, 2025	Bullish	21	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 30, 2025	Bullish	30.75	1.74R	Ran ≥1R
May 15, 2025	Bearish	17	0.59R	Stopped
May 2, 2025	Bearish	7.25	1.62R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2025	Bearish	33.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 7, 2025	Bullish	56	1.11R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 3, 2025	Bearish	33	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 29, 2025	Bullish	11.5	0.22R	Stopped
Dec 10, 2024	Bullish	10	0.53R	Stopped
Dec 3, 2024	Bullish	0.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 30, 2024	Bullish	8.5	0.38R	Stopped
Oct 22, 2024	Bullish	10.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	18.5	0.28R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2026	Bearish	9.75	0.69R	Stopped
Feb 23, 2026	Bullish	17.25	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 8, 2026	Bullish	17.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 11, 2025	Bearish	34	0.40R	Stopped
Dec 5, 2025	Bearish	30.5	1.29R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 26, 2025	Bearish	38.5	0.05R	Stopped
May 15, 2025	Bearish	12.75	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 3, 2025	Bullish	39.75	0.24R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2025	Bearish	22.75	0.60R	Stopped
Mar 3, 2025	Bearish	49.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 6, 2025	Bearish	25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 22, 2024	Bullish	6	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2024	Bullish	30.5	0.75R	Stopped
Jan 9, 2024	Bearish	26.75	0.02R	Stopped
Oct 19, 2023	Bullish	13	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 9, 2023	Bearish	23.75	0.79R	Stopped
Aug 7, 2023	Bullish	28	0.64R	Stopped
Jun 28, 2023	Bearish	10.5	0.48R	Stopped
Jun 22, 2023	Bullish	13	1.37R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jan 14, 2026	Bullish	31.25	2.01R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 11, 2025	Bearish	16.5	0.23R	Stopped
Apr 3, 2025	Bullish	12.75	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 17, 2025	Bearish	6	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 3, 2025	Bullish	73.75	1.10R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 6, 2025	Bearish	49	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2024	Bearish	28.25	2.04R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 29, 2023	Bearish	20.5	1.55R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 28, 2023	Bearish	21	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 24, 2022	Bearish	17.5	0.23R	Stopped
Jul 18, 2022	Bearish	20	2.24R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 15, 2022	Bullish	97	0.28R	Stopped
Dec 7, 2021	Bearish	5.5	2.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 30, 2020	Bullish	21.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 4, 2020	Bullish	16	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 5, 2020	Bearish	5.75	0.13R	Stopped
Oct 30, 2019	Bullish	9.25	1.78R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 25, 2019	Bullish	10.5	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 18, 2018	Bullish	28.75	0.10R	Stopped
Aug 7, 2018	Bearish	1.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (10)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Oct 2, 2023	Bullish	25.25	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 4, 2021	Bearish	9	0.00R	Stopped
May 17, 2018	Bearish	18.5	0.76R	Stopped
Sep 25, 2017	Bearish	16.25	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 5, 2016	Bearish	9.75	0.26R	Stopped
Sep 24, 2013	Bearish	24.25	2.45R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 13, 2012	Bullish	18.5	0.78R	Stopped
Nov 2, 2011	Bearish	57.25	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 26, 2009	Bullish	39	0.86R	Stopped
Mar 13, 2008	Bullish	36	0.34R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (11)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Oct 2, 2023	Bullish	47.75	0.00R	Stopped
May 17, 2018	Bearish	21	0.55R	Stopped
Dec 5, 2016	Bearish	9.5	0.29R	Stopped
Jun 13, 2016	Bearish	41	2.37R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 12, 2014	Bullish	30	2.67R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 24, 2013	Bearish	32.5	1.58R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 13, 2012	Bullish	13.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 1, 2011	Bearish	75	0.87R	Flat
Aug 30, 2010	Bullish	10.75	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 23, 2009	Bullish	26.75	1.83R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 13, 2008	Bullish	43.25	0.25R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	2.7	0.11R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	4.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	4.5	1.91R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	3.2	2.09R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	3.2	0.25R	Stopped
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	2.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 29, 2026	Bullish	0.9	0.78R	Stopped
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	5.3	1.13R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	2.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	5.6	0.68R	Flat
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	3.8	0.74R	Flat
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	4	1.85R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	4.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	1.1	0.73R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	3.1	1.10R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	3.7	1.35R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	3.1	1.16R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	2.7	1.67R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	1.3	0.62R	Stopped
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	2.6	0.04R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	3.7	1.35R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	7.4	1.92R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 17, 2026	Bullish	5.6	1.77R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 15, 2026	Bullish	5.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	10.5	1.65R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	12.2	0.20R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	8.9	0.64R	Stopped
Mar 26, 2026	Bullish	6.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 24, 2026	Bearish	1.6	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 24, 2026	Bearish	27.9	0.90R	Flat
Mar 9, 2026	Bearish	12.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 9, 2026	Bearish	15.6	1.08R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 6, 2026	Bullish	14.4	0.09R	Stopped
Mar 5, 2026	Bearish	1.6	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 3, 2026	Bullish	16.9	0.17R	Stopped
Mar 3, 2026	Bearish	2.1	2.57R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 27, 2026	Bearish	5.6	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 27, 2026	Bullish	5.6	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 26, 2026	Bullish	13.4	0.34R	Stopped
Feb 26, 2026	Bearish	8	2.07R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	14.4	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	21.1	0.05R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2026	Bullish	3.3	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 13, 2026	Bearish	23	0.98R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	11.6	0.03R	Stopped
Mar 19, 2026	Bullish	30.7	1.04R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 17, 2026	Bearish	4.7	1.11R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 16, 2026	Bullish	30.7	1.31R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 6, 2026	Bearish	28	0.71R	Stopped
Mar 4, 2026	Bearish	35.3	1.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	24.6	1.04R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 24, 2026	Bullish	28.6	0.68R	Flat
Feb 20, 2026	Bearish	17.7	0.60R	Stopped
Feb 19, 2026	Bearish	23.1	1.11R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2026	Bullish	20.4	1.35R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 4, 2026	Bullish	33	0.58R	Stopped
Jan 26, 2026	Bullish	16	2.26R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 14, 2026	Bearish	3.1	0.32R	Stopped
Jan 8, 2026	Bullish	11	0.25R	Stopped
Jan 7, 2026	Bullish	15.9	0.35R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	17.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	13.3	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 13, 2026	Bearish	10.8	0.74R	Stopped
Feb 10, 2026	Bullish	31.6	1.35R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 9, 2026	Bearish	28	0.22R	Stopped
Jan 20, 2026	Bearish	10.8	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 8, 2026	Bearish	16.9	0.31R	Stopped
Jan 7, 2026	Bullish	15.6	0.08R	Stopped
Dec 10, 2025	Bearish	10.5	0.46R	Stopped
Dec 9, 2025	Bullish	11.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 5, 2025	Bearish	10.4	0.47R	Stopped
Dec 4, 2025	Bullish	9.5	0.09R	Stopped
Nov 18, 2025	Bearish	17.8	0.24R	Stopped
Oct 31, 2025	Bullish	26.7	0.47R	Stopped
Sep 30, 2025	Bullish	16.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 26, 2025	Bullish	13.2	1.07R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 24, 2025	Bullish	15.3	0.69R	Stopped
Jun 18, 2025	Bearish	9.8	2.64R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 12, 2025	Bearish	7.6	0.00R	Stopped
Jun 4, 2025	Bearish	12.5	0.49R	Flat

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	16.9	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 13, 2026	Bullish	53.9	0.07R	Stopped
Feb 16, 2026	Bearish	60.3	1.21R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 17, 2025	Bearish	25	0.52R	Stopped
Dec 2, 2025	Bullish	34.9	0.23R	Stopped
Oct 31, 2025	Bullish	30.6	0.20R	Stopped
Aug 22, 2025	Bearish	6	1.98R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 10, 2025	Bearish	3.4	0.65R	Stopped
Jun 4, 2025	Bearish	6	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 13, 2025	Bearish	12.6	2.59R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 25, 2025	Bearish	27.9	2.92R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 25, 2025	Bullish	6.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 21, 2025	Bullish	16.1	1.13R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 18, 2025	Bearish	3.5	1.34R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 20, 2025	Bullish	8.5	1.79R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 4, 2024	Bullish	9.9	0.83R	Flat
Oct 4, 2024	Bearish	7.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 7, 2024	Bearish	12.5	1.17R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 5, 2024	Bullish	39.5	0.41R	Flat
Aug 2, 2024	Bullish	18.8	1.54R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 24, 2026	Bearish	123.9	0.08R	Stopped
Jan 7, 2026	Bearish	57.8	0.69R	Stopped
Aug 25, 2025	Bearish	11.8	0.45R	Stopped
Jun 9, 2025	Bullish	40.9	2.79R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 6, 2024	Bullish	19.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 1, 2024	Bullish	19.9	1.24R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 11, 2024	Bearish	5.8	0.69R	Stopped
Nov 20, 2023	Bearish	11	1.65R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 9, 2023	Bearish	10.1	0.04R	Stopped
Jul 24, 2023	Bullish	9	0.22R	Stopped
Feb 10, 2023	Bullish	9.5	0.44R	Stopped
Oct 24, 2022	Bearish	19.8	0.73R	Stopped
Sep 29, 2022	Bearish	16	0.12R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2022	Bearish	10.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 1, 2021	Bearish	9.7	0.56R	Stopped
Sep 6, 2021	Bearish	10.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 16, 2021	Bearish	8.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 11, 2020	Bearish	23.2	0.87R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2020	Bearish	10.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 16, 2019	Bearish	13.8	1.64R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (11)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Feb 9, 2021	Bullish	54.2	0.33R	Stopped
Mar 19, 2020	Bullish	22.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2018	Bearish	20.5	2.27R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2018	Bearish	17.2	1.33R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 15, 2017	Bullish	19.8	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 13, 2015	Bullish	11.1	0.19R	Stopped
Jul 29, 2014	Bullish	13.1	0.35R	Stopped
Feb 8, 2012	Bearish	31.5	0.89R	Stopped
Aug 24, 2010	Bearish	8	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 15, 2010	Bearish	11.2	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 28, 2008	Bearish	15.5	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 29, 2026	Bearish	0.08	0.75R	Stopped
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	0.35	0.11R	Stopped
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	0.22	0.91R	Stopped
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.25	0.24R	Stopped
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	0.14	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.06	2.17R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	0.13	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.05	1.20R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	0.33	1.94R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	0.27	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	0.25	0.76R	Flat
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	0.89	0.27R	Flat
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	0.1	0.30R	Stopped
Apr 23, 2026	Bearish	0.09	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bearish	0.2	0.30R	Stopped
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	0.25	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bearish	0.05	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	0.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.11	0.64R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.14	0.86R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.17	0.82R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	0.35	0.80R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.74	0.99R	Flat
Apr 22, 2026	Bearish	0.36	2.28R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 20, 2026	Bullish	0.52	0.46R	Stopped
Apr 17, 2026	Bullish	1.13	1.54R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 16, 2026	Bearish	0.64	0.02R	Stopped
Apr 14, 2026	Bullish	0.32	0.84R	Stopped
Apr 14, 2026	Bearish	0.14	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 10, 2026	Bullish	0.88	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2026	Bearish	0.48	0.21R	Stopped
Apr 8, 2026	Bullish	0.5	0.40R	Stopped
Apr 7, 2026	Bullish	0.53	0.36R	Stopped
Apr 7, 2026	Bullish	1.88	0.19R	Stopped
Apr 7, 2026	Bearish	0.72	1.26R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 7, 2026	Bearish	0.28	0.39R	Stopped
Apr 6, 2026	Bullish	0.58	1.17R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	0.21	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	0.34	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	0.3	1.40R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 10, 2026	Bullish	0.36	0.11R	Stopped
Mar 18, 2026	Bullish	0.4	1.08R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 10, 2026	Bullish	2.27	0.15R	Stopped
Mar 9, 2026	Bullish	2.11	0.17R	Stopped
Feb 26, 2026	Bullish	0.22	0.55R	Flat
Feb 24, 2026	Bearish	0.26	1.04R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 24, 2026	Bearish	0.44	2.64R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 13, 2026	Bearish	0.1	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 6, 2026	Bearish	0.32	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 22, 2026	Bullish	0.07	2.29R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 21, 2026	Bullish	0.13	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 12, 2026	Bearish	0.32	0.50R	Stopped
Dec 24, 2025	Bullish	0.16	1.88R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 23, 2025	Bullish	0.2	2.85R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 5, 2025	Bearish	0.16	0.75R	Stopped
Nov 10, 2025	Bearish	0.05	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 14, 2025	Bearish	0.21	1.67R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 9, 2025	Bullish	0.22	2.55R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 6, 2025	Bullish	0.48	0.98R	Flat
Sep 30, 2025	Bullish	0.32	2.09R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 6, 2026	Bearish	1.53	0.58R	Stopped
Jan 27, 2026	Bearish	0.42	0.40R	Stopped
Jan 14, 2026	Bearish	0.25	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 9, 2026	Bearish	0.48	1.12R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 5, 2026	Bearish	0.23	1.70R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 30, 2025	Bearish	0.06	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 22, 2025	Bearish	0.13	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 13, 2025	Bullish	0.42	0.43R	Flat
Oct 2, 2025	Bearish	0.46	1.87R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 18, 2025	Bullish	0.11	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 22, 2025	Bearish	0.25	1.04R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 20, 2025	Bearish	0.3	0.20R	Stopped
Aug 18, 2025	Bullish	0.57	1.74R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 21, 2025	Bullish	0.38	0.53R	Stopped
Jul 3, 2025	Bearish	0.49	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
Jul 2, 2025	Bearish	0.3	2.83R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 27, 2025	Bullish	0.53	0.53R	Stopped
Jun 3, 2025	Bearish	0.3	1.60R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2025	Bearish	0.08	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2025	Bearish	0.32	0.19R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 24, 2026	Bearish	1.3	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 26, 2026	Bearish	0.53	0.49R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2026	Bullish	2.29	0.24R	Stopped
Mar 20, 2026	Bullish	1.86	2.58R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 16, 2026	Bearish	2.96	1.75R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	0.61	0.72R	Stopped
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	0.76	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 4, 2026	Bearish	0.1	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 23, 2026	Bearish	0.09	2.33R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 13, 2026	Bearish	0.49	0.06R	Stopped
Jan 9, 2026	Bearish	0.81	0.26R	Stopped
Jan 5, 2026	Bearish	0.23	1.87R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 17, 2025	Bullish	0.19	0.32R	Stopped
Oct 3, 2025	Bullish	0.27	2.63R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 26, 2025	Bearish	0.12	0.83R	Stopped
Jun 27, 2025	Bullish	0.36	0.11R	Stopped
Jun 26, 2025	Bearish	0.94	0.72R	Flat
Jun 4, 2025	Bullish	0.64	1.83R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 2, 2025	Bearish	0.79	1.14R	Ran ≥1R
May 29, 2025	Bullish	0.29	0.59R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 24, 2026	Bullish	7.1	1.68R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 13, 2026	Bullish	0.51	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 1, 2025	Bearish	0.59	1.86R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 20, 2025	Bullish	1.19	2.02R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 12, 2024	Bullish	0.49	0.92R	Stopped
Oct 3, 2024	Bearish	1.41	0.40R	Stopped
Sep 27, 2024	Bullish	0.57	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
May 30, 2024	Bearish	1.27	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 25, 2023	Bullish	0.77	0.57R	Stopped
Feb 16, 2023	Bullish	1.4	0.39R	Stopped
Dec 14, 2022	Bearish	0.26	0.00R	Stopped
Sep 2, 2022	Bullish	2.44	0.77R	Stopped
Aug 2, 2022	Bullish	0.7	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 14, 2022	Bearish	1.48	0.51R	Stopped
Feb 23, 2022	Bearish	2.82	0.53R	Stopped
Jan 28, 2022	Bearish	1.4	0.36R	Stopped
Jan 21, 2022	Bullish	1.57	1.11R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 5, 2021	Bearish	0.65	0.29R	Stopped
Sep 24, 2021	Bearish	0.23	0.00R	Stopped
Jul 16, 2021	Bullish	0.22	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (6)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Aug 10, 2022	Bullish	4.56	0.76R	Stopped
Dec 16, 2013	Bearish	1.13	0.32R	Stopped
Jun 24, 2013	Bearish	4.26	0.30R	Stopped
May 11, 2011	Bullish	3.95	1.22R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 26, 2009	Bearish	3.37	0.78R	Flat
Aug 1, 2008	Bullish	4.88	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 28, 2026	Bearish	0.005	0.80R	Flat
Apr 27, 2026	Bullish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.005	2.40R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.011	1.45R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 24, 2026	Bullish	0.003	0.67R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.004	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 14, 2026	Bearish	0.003	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 7, 2026	Bullish	0.004	1.25R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 2, 2026	Bearish	0.002	1.00R	Stopped
Apr 2, 2026	Bearish	0.005	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.67R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	0.006	0.50R	Flat
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	0.016	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 31, 2026	Bearish	0.002	2.50R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	0.004	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 30, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.67R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bullish	0.01	0.90R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.67R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bearish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 27, 2026	Bullish	0.003	3.00R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 21, 2026	Bullish	0.017	1.59R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 21, 2026	Bearish	0.004	0.75R	Stopped
Apr 20, 2026	Bearish	0.004	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2026	Bullish	0.015	0.20R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2026	Bullish	0.006	0.17R	Stopped
Apr 2, 2026	Bullish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 1, 2026	Bearish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 26, 2026	Bearish	0.002	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 25, 2026	Bullish	0.007	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 24, 2026	Bearish	0.009	1.22R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 19, 2026	Bullish	0.023	1.78R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 19, 2026	Bearish	0.024	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 16, 2026	Bullish	0.009	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 13, 2026	Bullish	0.008	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 12, 2026	Bearish	0.023	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 27, 2026	Bearish	0.005	2.20R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 26, 2026	Bearish	0.02	1.15R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 25, 2026	Bullish	0.024	0.42R	Stopped
Feb 24, 2026	Bullish	0.009	0.22R	Stopped
Feb 18, 2026	Bearish	0.013	0.23R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	0.004	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2026	Bullish	0.004	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 7, 2026	Bearish	0.012	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 12, 2026	Bullish	0.052	1.15R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 5, 2026	Bearish	0.034	1.15R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 20, 2026	Bearish	0.009	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 13, 2026	Bearish	0.019	1.21R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 11, 2026	Bullish	0.006	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 10, 2026	Bullish	0.02	1.80R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 4, 2026	Bearish	0.018	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 30, 2026	Bearish	0.026	0.08R	Stopped
Jan 29, 2026	Bearish	0.048	2.92R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 14, 2026	Bearish	0.026	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 7, 2026	Bearish	0.032	0.22R	Stopped
Dec 24, 2025	Bullish	0.007	0.00R	Stopped
Dec 10, 2025	Bullish	0.001	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 20, 2025	Bullish	0.047	2.26R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 27, 2025	Bearish	0.004	0.00R	Stopped
Oct 23, 2025	Bullish	0.023	0.70R	Stopped
Oct 15, 2025	Bullish	0.007	1.57R	Ran ≥1R

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 27, 2026	Bearish	0.038	1.50R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 23, 2026	Bullish	0.011	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 17, 2026	Bullish	0.035	1.97R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 5, 2026	Bearish	0.052	0.83R	Flat
Feb 13, 2026	Bearish	0.032	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 16, 2026	Bullish	0.083	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 2, 2025	Bullish	0.024	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 8, 2025	Bearish	0.009	0.11R	Stopped
Jul 16, 2025	Bearish	0.028	0.25R	Stopped
Jul 15, 2025	Bearish	0.022	1.18R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 10, 2025	Bullish	0.015	0.00R	Stopped
May 12, 2025	Bullish	0.038	1.68R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2025	Bullish	0.048	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 1, 2025	Bullish	0.045	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 31, 2025	Bullish	0.061	0.52R	Flat
Feb 25, 2025	Bearish	0.032	0.25R	Stopped
Jan 21, 2025	Bullish	0.027	1.85R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 14, 2025	Bullish	0.023	0.26R	Stopped
Jan 2, 2025	Bullish	0.074	1.76R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 3, 2024	Bullish	0.019	0.11R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Apr 14, 2026	Bullish	0.004	1.25R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 11, 2026	Bearish	0.016	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 23, 2026	Bullish	0.191	0.42R	Stopped
Jan 16, 2026	Bullish	0.093	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 7, 2025	Bearish	0.027	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Oct 17, 2025	Bullish	0.039	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Sep 16, 2025	Bearish	0.046	0.02R	Stopped
Jul 28, 2025	Bullish	0.044	1.93R	Ran ≥1R
May 12, 2025	Bullish	0.043	1.79R	Ran ≥1R
Apr 22, 2025	Bullish	0.056	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 18, 2025	Bearish	0.067	0.22R	Stopped
Mar 5, 2025	Bearish	0.104	0.90R	Flat
Jan 21, 2025	Bullish	0.058	0.60R	Stopped
Jul 30, 2024	Bearish	0.009	0.67R	Stopped
Jul 26, 2024	Bullish	0.026	0.23R	Stopped
Apr 26, 2024	Bullish	0.013	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 9, 2024	Bearish	0.074	0.09R	Stopped
Mar 11, 2024	Bullish	0.009	1.56R	Ran ≥1R
Feb 2, 2024	Bullish	0.026	1.00R	Stopped
Nov 28, 2023	Bullish	0.017	0.00R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (20)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Time	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Mar 17, 2026	Bullish	0.062	0.69R	Stopped
Feb 27, 2026	Bullish	0.048	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 10, 2025	Bullish	0.054	0.00R	Stopped
Mar 10, 2025	Bearish	0.407	1.32R	Ran ≥1R
Mar 5, 2025	Bearish	0.262	0.60R	Stopped
Mar 11, 2024	Bullish	0.078	0.03R	Stopped
Dec 19, 2023	Bearish	0.172	0.23R	Stopped
May 15, 2023	Bearish	0.018	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 10, 2023	Bullish	0.077	2.31R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 7, 2022	Bearish	0.222	0.51R	Stopped
Mar 3, 2022	Bearish	0.205	0.01R	Stopped
Dec 31, 2021	Bullish	0.089	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 2, 2021	Bullish	0.227	2.27R	Ran ≥1R
Jun 24, 2021	Bearish	0.026	0.00R	Stopped
Jan 26, 2021	Bearish	0.026	0.69R	Stopped
Mar 12, 2020	Bearish	0.196	0.68R	Flat
Feb 12, 2020	Bullish	0.043	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Jan 16, 2020	Bullish	0.029	1.28R	Ran ≥1R
Nov 20, 2019	Bullish	0.054	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Aug 30, 2019	Bearish	0.029	0.66R	Stopped

Sample Shark Completions (9)

Based on data through Apr 29, 2026

Date	Direction	Risk (pts)	Room offered	Result
Jun 29, 2022	Bullish	0.354	0.00R	Stopped
Nov 26, 2015	Bullish	0.206	0.01R	Stopped
Oct 29, 2014	Bullish	0.235	3.00R	Ran ≥1R
Dec 18, 2013	Bearish	0.169	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 9, 2012	Bullish	0.114	0.00R	Stopped
Apr 5, 2012	Bullish	0.024	0.00R	Stopped
Feb 2, 2010	Bullish	0.376	0.65R	Stopped
Sep 22, 2009	Bearish	0.241	0.00R	Stopped
Aug 27, 2009	Bullish	0.462	0.07R	Stopped

Sample backtests (6)

Real backtested runs of this pattern, with commissions and slippage. Open one for the full equity curve and metrics, or backtest it yourself on your own contract and dates.

GC 15m · Shark · 2020-2024

Shark · balanced

Win rate: 56.76%
Profit factor: 0.93
Max drawdown: 7.95%

222 trades View →

GC 5m · Shark · 2020-2024

Shark · balanced

Win rate: 57.74%
Profit factor: 0.89
Max drawdown: 8.69%

594 trades View →

ES 5m · Shark · 2020-2024

Shark · balanced

Win rate: 56.51%
Profit factor: 0.81
Max drawdown: 17.34%

538 trades View →

ES 15m · Shark · 2020-2024

Shark · balanced

Win rate: 52.66%
Profit factor: 0.64
Max drawdown: 18.18%

169 trades View →

NQ 5m · Shark · 2020-2024

Shark · balanced

Win rate: 56.51%
Profit factor: 0.85
Max drawdown: 24.56%

722 trades View →

NQ 15m · Shark · 2020-2024

Shark · balanced

Win rate: 51.43%
Profit factor: 0.63
Max drawdown: 28.48%

175 trades View →

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